Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:24:28

Constituency Profile


Archambault, Phil

Budd, Mark

Fenik, John

Payne, Anita

Reid, Scott

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2740.55%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
   (189/239 polls, 79.05% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Scott Reid

   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (27/239 polls, 12.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gordon O'Connor

   Kingston and the Islands
   (21/239 polls, 8.36% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ted Hsu


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15 10 16 I.M.
Lanark Frontenac Kingston is a 'new' riding and has gained the part of Kingston north of the 401 highway. It is large and diverse, not just rural and conservative to the bone. This is reflected in the latest poll numbers which are going in one direction, Liberal.
The Liberals have pulled away from the NDP and the gap with the Conservatives has gone from double digits down to 6 points! With a few strategic votes, LFK will be Liberal again. That's right, before Scott Reid the riding was called Lanark-Carleton and it was Liberal (Ian Murray) from 1993-2000. To my knowledge it has never been won by the NDP.
15 10 01 M K
Interesting all-candidates debate in Sydenham on Sept. 30. I was initially surprised just how many Liberal & NDP supporters were there, with very little applause for Reid and many questions grilling him on the Conservatives' record.
Thinking about it, it makes sense that the people going to a candidates debate in this election aren't going there for an 11-year incumbent from a government that's been in power for 9+ years and may well be on its way out. The quiet Conservatives are still likely to show up to the voting booth to re-elect Reid, if not a debate, and by all measures he's a competent, well-spoken MP regardless of who his party leader is. I expect more votes for LPC and NDP than in past elections here, just not enough for either in particular to come close to winning.
15 09 08 Tony Ducey
CPC hold, though NDP candidate, a mayor, might make things interesting.
15 08 26 R.O.
One has to wonder how a riding that wouldn't of even made the top 200 ridings in Canada for ndp to focus on a few months back suddenly becomes an ndp target ? Scott Reid is a long serving mp who has held this riding since 2000 and well liked in this area. this riding is also conservative at the provincial level and held by Randy Hillier. I've driven thru the riding before its very large and rural , perth is not actually that big either . Smith Falls and Carleton place are likely bigger towns in the riding. Its likely the ndp do better here but conservatives should still hold this riding.
15 08 26 A.S.
FWIW I'd classify Perth's latency as more 'Red Tory/Liberal'--Fenik aside, if anyplace in Lanark County's more naturally NDPish, it's rust-belty Smiths Falls--though if electoral record is anything to go by, it's in Kingston's outskirts where the most galvanized left-vote is to be had. But they're still dealing with Landowners Central kryptonite--though Fenik's party switch makes a certain sense; populism being what it is, if *any* party can make an upset here, at this point it's likelier the NDP than the Liberals. And at this point, more by way of euphemism than by way of reality.
15 08 18 jeff316
Meh. The Mayor of Perth running for the NDP? Given it's lower-middle-class smalltownness with a smattering of artsies and folkies and back-to-the-landers, it's really not that far fetched. (I bet the NDP was more surprised to see Fenik come forward than were local voters.)
But L-F-K is some to some of Ontario's most old-school, non-evangelican Conservative voters - the last of the last clinging to rural life, poor farming families that have been here since Confederation, the kind of place you see the odd Confederate flag and those Ontario Landowners Association 'Back Off Government!' signs. And Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston is an absolute beast of a riding, stretching from the 401 in Kingston to the outskirts of Ottawa - so the deck is stacked. You have to be able to win more than Perth and maybe Smiths Falls and a smattering of votes in Carelton Place to win. Neither Fenik nor Archembeault will manage this.
15 08 03 TMR
Given the 'time for a change' attitude that appears to be percolating in the underbelly of this riding and the high profile of the current NDP candidate. Mr Reid may, for the 1st time in his tenure, be waging an uphill battle...This is compounded by a general distaste for Mr. Harper and the NDP's Mr Mulcair's increase in public profile... The Liberals are not a factor of consequence in this riding but, given Mr. Trudeaus popularity, they may shave off a few potential NDP votes...It will be an interesting battle in this new riding.
15 06 08 M K
Sort-of 'star candidate' announced for NDP in the form of Perth mayor John Fenik. Tellingly he's taking a leave of absence of mayoral duties, but not resigning.
I could see an increase in NDP votes in the riding, consistent too with how well Mulcair does nationally, but this is still Reid's riding.
15 03 28 monkey
This is Randy Hillier territory so the kind of right wing politics that drive the urban elites nuts are the type that sell well here.
15 03 26 M K
Reid will likely once again take over 50% of the votes, and the boundary changes will have consolidated a Conservative fiefdom.
More liberal, suburban Amherstview has been dropped from the riding along with the rest of Lennox & Addington, and the rural section of Kingston added is relatively Conservative.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
Scott Reid was one of only two MPs to win a seat during the atrocious 2000 election for the Canadian Alliance, this seat is easily going to be held by him.

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