Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:05:52

Constituency Profile


Anabusi, Alex

Batra, Mini

Jewell, Chris

Raitt, Lisa

Rizvee, Azim

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1270.38%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (134/134 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Lisa Raitt


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15 10 15 Monkey Cheese
TCTC. 308 is now stating that there is a 50% chance of a Liberal win in Milton, as of October 15. The Liberals are surging in the polls at the expense of the Conservatives in Ontario. Even a more popular minister like Raitt is no longer safe. Who would have predicted that? The math, some strategic voting, and high voter turnout just might clinch this one for the Liberals.
15 10 12 Spx
Same as with Burlington, this one could become a very close race actually this time around. Unlike Burlington though I still think Milton will stay Conservative, albeit by a very small margin. TCTC for now.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
Looking at the current numbers in Ontario and extrapolating from the 2011 results, suddenly this race becomes very competitive (42% for both the CPC and the Liberals). Were I a betting man, my money would be on Lisa Raitt for a number of reasons (such as incumbency). Never the less, if Liberal numbers hold like this, then there will be a lot of people scratching their heads on election night (hey, it happened provincially!).
15 09 05 R.O.
This riding has been significantly redistributed as Milton is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada. All the new growth maybe could make the race more unpredictable . but Lisa Raitt remains a high profile conservative mp and liberal and ndp candidates running against her are both new and low profile. And don't appear to have any political experience in the riding. The race might be closer here its tough to say but think Raitt will hold onto it.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 calls this 80% likely for Raitt, and with a Liberal as the closest challenger, and that party dropping in public favour with every debate, I think by my own rules I have to call this. Lisa Raitt is seen by many Conservatives as a leadership candidate, and she's the only minister other than Stephen Harper to have filed a SLAPP suit against citizens on a public issue (when she was head of Toronto airport authority). So she has the kind of shut-it-down style that the Conservative Party of Canada tends to respect and believe in, giving them confidence that future scandals will stay secret.
For instance I doubt Raitt would be dumb enough to admit knowing of 'financial considerations' offered to an MP or calling a bribe 'good to go' to a Senator. To Conservatives she's Harper with more discretion and a politically useful gender. So on those grounds I think she'll hold the vote. Amazingly she managed to evade media scrutiny over Lac-Megantic too.
Even though her office issued the unsafe operating permits. Wow. Just wow.
15 08 17 FP
Lisa is mostly absent in the riding, her refusal to take a stand on the CN Terminal has damaged her limited popularity. This combined with the significant population growth of Milton, the new townies should be able to pull off an upset here over the rural CON vote.
15 08 03 A.S.
For those seeking potential 'Portillo moments', I wouldn't even consider Lisa Raitt to be invulnerable--and take it from someone who farsightedly anticipated Ted Chudleigh's provincial near-loss in 2007. Though the 31-point notional 2011 differential is daunting--however, Milton's boomburban growth has been of the sort that contributed to Chudleigh's defeat in 2014, so by transposing current conditions I'd whittle the differential down to 2:1 or even less. Which is still huge; so, let us reflect on where Chudleigh's remaining 2014 strength was confined--Old Oakville and the Burlington-Nassagaweya rural fringe. For better or worse, Milton's being aggressively dragged into the 'inner 905'. Still maybe a smidgen out of Raitt-upsetting reach; but like so many Ontario HarperCons (even those in cabinet), there's something about her apparent strength that's got a bit of projected Potemkin about it, anyway. (Except that, esp. regarding seats like this where the Liberals have the presumed 'prime opponent' advantage, the Con camp is playing that same party line about Justin Trudeau--pot, kettle, black, perhaps?)
15 03 28 monkey
If Lisa Raitt was not running I would call this too close to call, but as a outer suburban riding it is already by nature Conservative leaning and only votes Liberal when the Tories mess up badly like Hudak did (never mind Chudleigh wasn't as high a profile candidate as Lisa Raitt) and if you include Lisa Raitt's personal popularity, I suspect this will stay Tory. The Liberals have better odds in the two Oakville ridings which I could see them taking possibly, but too early to tell.
15 03 25 Craig Hubley
People that watch politics have a deeply negative view of Lisa Raitt and her influence on the political process. She has probably the least integrity of any Conservative cabinet minister and that's saying a lot.
Lisa Raitt stood up in the House to deny, tears in her eyes, that Agent Orange had harmed anyone in Cape Breton. Her own brother suffered from it, but she stood up in the House denying it.
Not surprising that she also fronted for the Harper regime in the coverup after Lac-Megantic when deliberate neglect of the rail system and unsafe operating permits kept in place through *EIGHT* serious safety violations, eventually had the desired result: 47 people roasted alive to create the atmosphere of terror that Harper intended to get approval for Energy East.
Long before taking on these ugly tasks to prove her loyalty to Harper, Raitt filed a SLAPP suit against citizens in Toronto who criticized her in an official capacity overseeing airport operations. No doubt that's where Harper got the idea to sue the Liberal Party over 'Harper knew of Conservative bribery'. All things considered, a bad influence on Canadian politics, and a deplorable MP.
I predicted a Conservative win in Oakville North-Burlington, a place that likes monsters and seems to regard a lack of personal integrity as a plus. I will avoid concluding that Milton is quite so monstrous a place.
Not because I don't believe it will vote Conservative, but because I believe everyone gets one chance to wake up before they are irredeemable.
15 03 23 Lee Stephenson
Milton will re-elect Minister Lisa Raitt. Even if the Conservatives don't do well this election, her personal popularity cannot be beat.
15 03 23 Jason
The town of Milton was traditionally small-C conservative but growth and demographic changes have made it more competitive.
However, with the well known Lisa Raitt running again and the Liberals not making a serious play for this, the Conservatives should be able to hold this without too much difficulty.

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