Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Mississauga Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:33:39

Constituency Profile


Alghabra, Omar

Khan, Farheen

Nguyen, Linh

Tiangson, Julius

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1220.29%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Mississauga East-Cooksville
   (77/223 polls, 36.85% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Wladyslaw Lizon

   (66/223 polls, 31.31% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bob Dechert

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (62/223 polls, 23.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Eve Adams

   (18/223 polls, 8.24%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brad Butt


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15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Aloha bra leads in the polls. Liberals lead in the polls provincially and federally. Hurricane Hazel has endorsed Trudeau. Done! Liberal win!
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
Alghabra leads in Mississauga Centre
Forum Poll - October 5th
Omar Alghabra (44%) Liberal
Julius Tiangson (35%) Conservative
Farheen Khan (16%) NDP
15 10 06 Jeff S
LPC with a 44-35 lead according to Forum.
15 09 05 A.S.
MississaugaPeter: Alghabra was the only defeated Peel Liberal incumbent in *2008*. *Not* 2011.
15 08 31 MississaugaPeter
This is Projected Liberal? Why?
The repeated information here that Omar was the only defeated Liberal in Peel in 2011 is erroneous. What about Bonnie Crombie, Gurbax Mahli, Andrew Kania, Navseep Bains, ... All Peel went blue and Omar was just one of all Liberal incumbents to fall in Peel.
Why anyone would think Omar is a shoe-in, or any Liberal or Conservative in Peel at this point? It is extremely premature. In Mississauga, the two closest to sure things, but no one would be so stupid to bet on it with the election still 45 days out, are Butt and Dechart for the Conservatives and Fonseca for the Liberals.
15 08 02 A.S.
While Alghabra might have already fumbled his seat away in '08, he's still an absolutely credible candidate and running in what's arguably a more congenial seat--a culturally polyglot mix of some of the best Liberal parts of several ridings, as archetypal as a seat named 'Mississauga Centre' can get. For all we know, he might go from being the only *defeated* Mississauga Liberal in 2008 to the only *elected* Mississauga Liberal in 2015. Though it's worth noting in a post-Orange Crush, post-Jagmeet Singh, post-Alberta election age, the media seems to be treating the NDP here in a less also-ranny fashion than in the past--so let's not take the presumed 'traditional' two-way dynamic for granted.
15 05 27 seasaw
Omar Alghabra is a very nice guy and he's a third time Liberal candidate, but one must also remember that he was a weak MP and an even weaker candidate, that's why he was the only Peel Liberal incumbent to lose his seat. He might win this but right now, things don't look as good for the Liberals as they did a couple of months ago. With the election being months away and polls going all over the place, it's hard to predict who will win here.
15 03 28 monkey
This has in recent years been a fairly strong Liberal riding and only went Tory during their meltdown. While the Tories should have a decent second place showing, I would be quite shocked if they hold this one.
15 03 23 Jason
Looking at Mississauga Centre's redistributed results in 2011 the CPC won 41.7% of the vote compared to 36.7% for the LPC and 19% for the NDP. CPC and NDP support is down enough in Ontario enough for the Liberals to take this.
The Liberals are fielding former MP Omar Alghabra while the Conservatives have Julius Tiangson. The latter is new to electoral politics and previously worked as financial advisor and directed a support centre for recent immigrants.

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