Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Northumberland-Peterborough South

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:45:11

Constituency Profile


Christianson, Russ

Moulton, Adam

Rudd, Kim

Sinnott, Patricia

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1540.28%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Northumberland-Quinte West
   (181/241 polls, 76.16% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rick Norlock

   (29/241 polls, 13.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Erin O'Toole

   (31/241 polls, 10.26% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)



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15 10 17 David
Final post for me. Voting NDP but this riding wil be a narrrow Lib win on Monday. I would never have thought this possible 70+ days ago but no doubt in my mind now. CPC candidate has spent lots of money but has done little to garner support. Green candidate suggested need to vote strategically here and did everthing but endorse the Lib candidate. Ontario Lib support will swing this seat. Wish it was NDP but Canadians just can't break almost 150 years of switching between Conservatives and Liberals. No different in Northumberland-Peterborough South.
15 10 15 Spx
Just like Peterborough-Kawharta and Bay of Quinte this one is going to be a Liberal gain this time around. Should be a good indicator for the Liberals to pick up quite a lot of seats in Ontario. My final call here, Liberal gain.
15 10 13 Jason
I'm predicting a Liberal victory here. The site should change to at least, TCTC.
My reasoning.
1. Polls are unanimously stating that the Liberals are strong in Ontario. They have the levels of support not seen since the McGuinty provincial majorities of 2003 and 2007.
2. No Conservative incumbent.
3. Trudeau visited Port Hope several days ago. And visited the neighbouring riding Bay of Quinte month. The Liberals are hoping to make gains in this part of the province.
4. The federal Liberals are relying a lot of the provincial Liberals grassroots volunteers. These are the people that delivered Lou Rinaldi a surprising victory in Northumberland Quinte West last year.
15 10 13 David
You may eventually be correct with the CPC call but if the Liberals continue to grow this week they will win this seat. Trudeau in Port Hope on Thanks Giving Monday and they had to close the main street for his rally with what I would guess was several hundred in attendance. His stop here suggests the Lib polling is showing what I'm suggesting. Local anger with CPC candidate not attending debates is growing and the local Northumberland News paper has highlighted his non-appearance. What looked like a clear CPC win 70 days ago is now anything but a guarantee. Still voting NDP myself but won't be surprised to see Kim Rudd as my MP next Monday night.
15 10 13 Mr C
Kim Rudd impresses during All Candidates and certainly has a Leader who is getting the message across to the electorate. A tctc is being shelved in favour of Liberal Rudd.
15 10 14 Andy
I have a feeling that Moulton will win this riding. Why? Despite comments that Port Hope provided a huge reception for Trudeau and the Liberals, Port Hope has always been cranky towards the Conservatives, and the PC Party provincially. Another thought is Quinte West/Trenton is no longer in this riding. Sometimes Trenton polls are hard for the Conservatives to win. As well, keep in mind that this riding includes the rural areas north of Rice Lake. That area seems to me to be Conservative friendly much like Trent Hills typically is. This riding (although the border has changed) has typically been labelled a bellwether riding. Whichever party forms government typically also wins Northumberland. I'm also surprised that not many seem to be giving Russ and the NDP any support. Russ and Adam are way more engaging, passionate and interesting than Kim is.
15 10 13 JC
The reception Trudeau got in Port Hope says it all, he had nearly half the town there at the rally, writing is on the wall, this one is going liberal.
15 10 13 DSR
Trudeau attended a rally in this riding on Monday which suggests that it is still very much in play as the Libs lead over the Cons continues to grow in Ont. Leaders don't visit ridings this late in the campaign unless they believe they are winnable. TCTC
15 10 03 Spx
I agree with David Moss, that it is a bit early to call it for the Conservatives. I also think the two Peterborough ridings are a good indicator to who will win the most seats in Ontario. At this point I would say it's TCTC
15 10 02 Mr C
Drove across this absolutely huge riding this week going to and from Hamilton for a conference, I am still in awe of the ridings varied dynamic. It was a mix of 'old' party signs on farms, urban and rural alike so in my small poll it seemed a toss up...
Ms Rudd certainly has received favourable reception as has NDP candidate Russ Christianson, see below entry re Port Hope's recent all-candidate meeting.
15 09 30 DAVID MOSS
I think you are a bit premature to now call this a win for the CPC. At an all candidates debate in Port Hope last week the CPC candidate did make an appearance (I was told not personally present) and he received a quite hostile response from a full house at the venue. Liberal candidate seems to be doing very well. I will vote NDP so this is not a Liberal supporter whistling in the dark. I still think this riding will go to the party leading in Ontario on election day. Visual campaign in Port Hope and Cobourg very red and seems to be growing. Wish it was orange! Today, TCTC.
15 09 17 Ben
For Moulton not to win the con vote will have to collapse and all of it go to either of the ndp or libs.

Norlock had a 16,000 majority and 8oo votes separated ndp and libs. So if 16000 votes come over then who will they go to when both the ndp and libs started from the same baseline?
My bet is that Moulton will win, remember the libs had a split con vote alliance/conservative in the elections they won in the past. Just too much of a hurdle to overcome unless the cons show up like a Mulroney loss we are going to get a 24 year old fundamentalist christian who has never had a real job - think Polievre!
15 09 08 Monkey Cheese
With a downward trend for the currently third place Conservatives now confirmed (Nanos has the Tories down to 26% this weekend) and an upward trend for the Liberals (especially in Ontario), it's entirely possible for them to win ridings like this. They won it provincially and it appears that they're running a strong campaign here. This riding might surprise everyone and turn red in October.
15 09 02 R.O.
This was mostly tory mp Rick Norlocks old riding although redistributed and includes parts of some other nearby ridings now . I'd say conservative Adam Moulton still has an advantage cause of past numbers and redistribution of this riding. Although the ndp candidate has run multiple times here and is maybe better known than say some of the unknown ndp candidates in other rural ridings. But liberals still a factor here as well as riding has some liberal history and provincial representation at times. Although somewhat urban in port hope and Cobourg riding is mostly rural and still type of riding cpc does well in.
15 09 01 Dfavid
Updating from my earlier post. TCTC. PC campaign now on the radar but not great. Personally have decided to vote NDP but sense that the Liberal Kim Rudd may win this riding. PC seem stonger in the rural area but at best in second and maybe even third place in the 'urban area' of Port Hope and Cobourg. A soft Tory riding that they may not be able to hold. TCTC today but leaning Liberal with still a long way to go.
15 08 29 A.S.
If one seeks a barometer for what *could* happen post-Duffygate, consider the Newcastle/Clarke portion that migrated here from Durham riding: in the last provincial election, excluding advance polls less than seven percent separated the three major parties! Within the present entity, the transcribed 2011 figures overwhelmingly favour CPC, of course (duh); however Red Toryism and Toronto-expatriate-ism work to Liberal advantage (esp. in Port Hope/Cobourg), and, well, given his multiple credible runs since 2004, in the event of an oh-wow NDP majority there's *got* to be a latent (if longshot) sentimental-favourite case for Russ Christianson. And Moulton...well, he's 24. (Maybe less a slam on youth-and-inexperience, than on the Poilievre-android stigma young Cons face in 2015.)
15 08 16 Swellow
This riding went Liberal in the provincial election. I think there is a good chance for this riding to go that way federally too, especially because it is an open seat.
15 08 11 david
Don't assume this will be a Conservative hold. I live in Port Hope. Conservative campaign nowhere to be seen at the end of week two, Libs and NDP have signs appearing. No one I talk to even knows the Conservative candidate and both Lib and NDP candidates well known. Conservative candidate will need to rely on strong Con standing nationally to win here. Way to early to predict if 'time for a change voters' will split the anti Con vote. If they line up significantly behind either Lib or NDP the Con can't win here. Too close to call right now. Let's see where things are nationally in late September but Tory candidate better get to work now not later or this will be an Ontario seat lost.
15 07 28 WL
This is going to be a 3 way race for the first time, thanks to the redrawn boundaries it is now a candidate to be considered a 'bell-weather' riding. This riding is now more urban and less rural than the old Northumberland Quinte West. There is a lot of desire for change out there and no incumbent.
The new Conservative candidate is very young and very much a right-wing fundamentalist. That won't play well in the new riding. The Liberal candidate is a nice lady, but that won't overcome her parties poor numbers, nor Trudeau's awful performance as leader. C-51 has absolutely disgusted many voters. I have talked to several long-time Liberals and Conservatives who will not be voting the same way this time.
The NDP support for supply management systems will help win over some of the farmers, especially since the other parties are not listening to those that grow our food. $15 a day child care is also going to be very popular. The biggest factor is going to be the orange wave. It was strong in Quebec, but didn't carry over into Ontario last election. This time it very well may.
On the basis of strong polling numbers for the NDP in general and Tom Mulcair is particular, I say the experienced and likeable Russ Christianson will take this vacant seat.
15 03 28 monkey
Although it did go Liberal provincially, this was largely because the Liberal candidate was a former MPP. As any rural riding in Ontario, I suspect this will stay Conservative even if they lose nationally. In Ontario its likely to be urban Liberal/NDP, suburban up for grabs and Rural Tory at least in the southern parts of the province, not so much the North. The Liberals would be better to focus on the neighbouring Peterborough riding as the city of Peterborough is fairly Liberal friendly and Liberal strength there can offset the rural Tory strength. Whereas here the Liberals might win Port Hope and Cobourg, but that won't be enough to cancel out the Tory support elsewhere.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
As we've seen in recent provincial elections, this riding does swing Liberal. I'm saying too close to call right now. If compelled to make a decision, I'd say CPC but let's wait and see.
15 03 25 Jason
Liberals hold this riding provincially. Though that is under different circumstances.
Federally it is not a Tory lock, but it leans slightly Conservative for at the moment.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
This is Tory blue for now but if the Liberals are going to win big then this one will go to Kim Rudd.

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