Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Oakville North-Burlington

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:19:01

Constituency Profile


Best, Janice

Clement, David

Damoff, Pam

Shahbaz, Adnan

Triantafilopoulos, Effie

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1220.26%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (181/181 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Lisa Raitt


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15 10 17 Spx
Another TCTC which has to be called eventually. Just as with neighbouring Oakville, this should be a Liberal gain on Monady.
15 10 15 Philly D.
Given its similarity to Oakville next door, the Liberal lead there according to Mainstreet, and the absence of incumbent and of any meaningful NDP vote (look for single digits), it is time to put this riding in the Liberal column,
15 09 22 R.O.
This is a new and open riding that didn't exist last election , in 2011 it was part of southern end of Lisa Raitt's halton riding. It's a tough riding to get a feel for as its new and hasn't existed before. The halton ridings generally swing between liberals and conservatives with ndp not being much of a factor here. this riding would of went conservative had it existed last election but features all new candidates this year and leaning too close to call for time being .
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This riding is neck and neck right now between the Conservatives and Liberals. Both parties have a reasonable shot at winning here, although I think Max Kahn would have been the MP here before his unfortunate passing. I'm calling this TCTC right now, but if forced to make a call I'd give a slight edge to the Liberals who will likely get a sympathy bump as a result of Mr. Khan's passing.
15 06 22 Lee Stephenson
I don't agree that the Liberals have a slim advantage here over the passing of the former Liberal candidate. Maybe a few people vote that way, but most do not. Anyways, the new candidates are a former Mississauga South candidate/former charity CEO who now lives in Oakville, and an Oakville Town Councillor whose ward is actually south of the QEW. Neither will have good name recognition here yet, so it will come down to the national campaign. So, I predict a slim CPC victory for the following reasons:
-The riding demographics here, or elsewhere in Halton, are not ones that will overwhelmingly vote NDP. It's a CPC-Lib race plain and simple
-Tories are lower in Ontario, but many polls have the Liberals below them as they bleed support to the NDP
-Lisa Raitt is running in Milton this time, so while that levels the playing field somewhat, I don't believe it will be enough to flip this to the Liberals. If they were doing better in the polls I would put this as TCTC. As they are not, I say CPC hold. Actually for now, I will go as far to say that the CPC wins all 5 Halton seats.
15 06 21 A.S.
Re the might've-beens about Max Khan, something worth noting: AFAIK in 2011, he got the highest share of any never-incumbent Liberal in a non-incumbent seat--even if amidst the Iggy disaster, that was good for nothing more than 30% (and the share didn't maintain itself in the present riding draw). Re that tragic loss, and the Con-nomination shenanigans which have led to speculation that one of the individuals notoriously involved *there* might wind up replacing Khan as Grit standard-bearer (that is, if Eglinton-Lawrence doesn't want her)...well, when it comes to the whole 'integrity thing', too bad the comparatively un-house-poxed NDP isn't all that viable here.
15 05 27 seasaw
I'm going to give the edge to the Liberals, for now anyway, even if their poll numbers are dropping. The reason is the untimely passing of Max Khan, they will get a lot of sympathy votes which could determine which way this riding goes. All bets are off, if Eve Adams gets nominated here.
15 04 01 ME
Eve Adams, who is currently running against another contestant in Eglinton-Lawrence, but might save the party some grief in that riding if she could be switched to Oakville North-Burlington after a suitable period of mourning for Max Khan.
15 03 29 ME
Max Khan is no longer the Liberal candidate..,RIP
His passing as put this riding in play...
15 03 29 Jason
Max Khan - Oakville councillor and Liberal candidate for Oakville North Burlington has passed away suddenly.
15 03 25 Stevo
Surprised the moderator would let through that comment by the clearly-insane Craig Hubley that seems to accuse the Harper government of staging Lac-Megantic for political means. Given your passion Craig, perhaps this isn't the forum. Compose an op-ed with your accusations under your real name and publish it in the Toronto Star. Oakville is always TCTC this far out and this time no exception.
15 03 25 Craig Hubley
As Lisa Raitt is running in Milton, I'll shift my prediction over there, but this riding's willingness to elect monsters stands as my reasoning to continue favouring a Conservative win. And to state facts on the record and conclude that the incumbent was monstrous, does not qualify as a 'rant', though judging the constituents that foolishly elect such a person, might.
Consider Oakville North-Burlington judged. And damned to the C column.
15 03 24 JC
The Tories don't have a candidate and Max Khan ran a great campaign last time but lost due to Michael Ignatieff's atrocious campaign. With the Liberal brand in recovery his personal popularity should help him win this.
15 03 23 Dr. Bear
Wow...that rant against Lisa Raitt was...interesting...albeit moot; she isn't running in this riding but in the new riding of Milton. This is the riding where Eve Adams wanted to run in, but instead...well...we all know what happened with that!
Now I'm calling this race too close to call for a number of reasons. First, it's a new and open riding, so no incumbent advantage. Second, the Liberals have nominated Max Khan, a well known three-term city councilor. The Conservatives haven't nominated anyone yet, but it looks like it'll be the provincial PC candidate from Mississauga South (does the person live in the riding?). Third, this riding (rather it's predecessor), and the entire Halton region, surprisingly dumped the PC party in the provincial election. If the Liberals can regain momentum, they should be competitive here. Threehundredeight.com is currently listing this as a tossup with 41% for the CPC and 40% for the Liberals. I have to agree and think this is too close to call.
15 03 23 Jason
TCTC. Lisa Raitt is running in the Milton riding, not Oakville North Burlington. The Tories have yet to nominate a candidate (the Eve Adams issue originated during this riding nomination), while the Liberals have Oakville councillor Max Khan running for their banner.
Both parties have a realistic chance of taking this seat. It is an upper class suburban riding with socially progressive but fiscally conservative values. I predict the party leading the popular vote in Ontario this October will hold the seat.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Conservative demerit hold: If they'll elect Lisa Raitt once, they'll do so again, because they clearly have no concept of integrity nor values.
Lisa Raitt stood up in the House to deny, tears in her eyes, that Agent Orange had harmed anyone in Cape Breton. Her own brother suffered from it, but she stood up in the House denying it.
Not surprising that she also fronted for the Harper regime in the coverup after Lac-Megantic when deliberate neglect of the rail system and unsafe operating permits kept in place through *EIGHT* serious safety violations, eventually had the desired result: 47 people roasted alive to create the atmosphere of terror that Harper intended to get approval for Energy East.
Long before taking on these ugly tasks to prove her loyalty to Harper, Raitt filed a SLAPP suit against citizens in Toronto who criticized her in an official capacity. No doubt that's where Harper got the idea to sue the Liberal Party over 'Harper knew of Conservative bribery'. All things considered, a bad influence on Canadian politics, and a deplorable MP.
And they'll elect her again, because this is a place that likes monsters.

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