Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:52:58

Constituency Profile


Galipeau, Royal

Leslie, Andrew

Morin, Raphaël

Tremblay, Nancy

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 70.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (230/247 polls, 93.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Royal Galipeau

   (12/247 polls, 5.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre Lemieux

   (5/247 polls, 1.09% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Pierre Poilievre


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15 10 15 Marco Ricci
I agree that Leslie is a flawed candidate. He may be a General, but he is not fluent in French and he alienated a number of Liberals by the way he was parachuted in here. He does not have the connections to Orléans Francophones like former Liberal candidate David Bertschi.
However, fortunately for Leslie, Justin Trudeau is a Francophone, and that will make up for his own awkwardness in appealing to Francophones.
What determines most ridings is the National & Provincial trends, and since the Liberals are doing very well Nationally & in Ontario, he is likely to get carried by that trend, despite his own personal liabilities in how he handled the nomination.
Galipeau is holding onto a core vote in neighbourhoods like Blackburn Hamlet and is not giving up by any means, but Leslie also has a large number of lawn signs in Blackburn Hamlet, and when a Liberal does well in Blackburn Hamlet, it tends to mean that they win the riding overall. It's kind of a bellweather neighbourhood in this riding. Marie-France Lalonde won Blackburn Hamlet by a huge margin over Lister provincially last year. That's one of the reasons she crushed him.
Interestingly, I notice there are a few NDP lawn signs around this year. The NDP candidate Tremblay is not just a paper candidate like in the past. She may be able to get a respectable vote share of 15% rather than the 8% score that the provincial NDPer got here last year.
15 10 16 Cartesian
This riding is a low hanging fruit for the Liberals. It has strong Liberal roots and Andrew Leslie is one of the Liberals' star candidates who would clearly be a Cabinet member if the Liberals get into power, which seems increasingly likely. Mr. Galipeau is a nice enough man but can't match Mr. Leslie's credentials. On top of this, Orleans is home to many members of the military, which would make a top general even more likely to win. Also, the riding had the 2nd highest turnout in the country in the advance polls at more than 18,000, and a high participation rate should favor the Liberals. The Liberals are also winning the sign war, which hasn't been seen in a while.
Adding to this
15 10 13 Petrie Island Pontificator
I am ready to switch my prediction. Trudeau has raised the Liberals enough in Ontario that this swing seat should go Liberal. It would be a mistake to attribute this to Leslie though. My friends and family are all in the Forces and they do not like this man, and this is common among those who served with and for him. This is a swing seat and the swing is going Liberal. The PSAC and PIPS campaigns are also helping I think. If Nepean is close, then there is no way Galipeau hangs on.
15 10 04 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/9/29) Lib 40%, Con 33%, NDP 19%, Green 8%.
15 09 26 Dave
Both of the riding additions were conservative. I agree that there has been a swing to the left, but there is also a large francophone population, which works in the favour of Galipeau. I believe that the vote will be close in this riding between the liberals and conservatives. The other parties don't stand a chance.
15 09 20 Nick M.
Andrew Leslie is the kinda guy to get the blue collar conservative vote. Aside the CPC is losing 10 percent provincially, and the Libs are set to gain 10% of the popular vote.
The CPC vote isn't that efficient. They are set to win numerous ridings by landslides, and lose many ridings by 5% percent or so.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
Randall Denley reports in The Ottawa Citizen today that internal Conservative polling has them in trouble in several Ottawa ridings.
About this riding the article says the Conservatives 'are said to be hopelessly far behind in Orleans'.
Therefore, unless there is a major Liberal drop in Ontario over the next month, I predict that this riding will go Liberal.
15 09 15 SPP
This is a clear Liberal gain, considering the current weakness of the Conservative Party in Ontario. The 8% deficit from last time will easily be covered considering the Liberals are polling about 10% higher than the last election. I don't even think the riding will be close with the Liberals easily clearly 45% of the vote. The Ontario Liberals received 54% of the vote in this riding last election, and its not a Conservative riding by any means.
15 09 12 Jason
Why do some of the posters think Galipeau will win this riding?
He won the nominal riding 45-37 in 2011. He will be facing Liberal star candidate Andrew Leslie.
The Liberal nomination controversy is long over. Even so, disenchanted Liberals are more likely to vote for the NDP over the CPC.
Provincially, the Liberals carried Ottawa Orleans by 20 points in 2014 while winning the province by only 8 points.
15 09 12 Adeline96
I think this one is too close to call right now. The dust has not settled in Ontario and until a general trend is established it is difficult to call. Pundits have predicted Galipeau's loss in every election except 2011, and maybe he will buck the trend again. Based on polling though, it looks like this one will be going Liberal.
15 09 07 Brian Lonsdale
Unless things drastically change for the Conservative campaign (they are on a downward trend and unlikely to recapture the voters that are deserting them) Royal Galipeau is history.
With recent polls showing the Conservatives in third place nationally and the 'Too close to call' and Grenier's CBC site both showing the Conservatives hovering at about the same level as the NDP in Ontario (Liberals have a substantive lead now), the Conservatives' firewall in Ontario is looking more susceptible to fire rather than stopping fire. Grenier's model is already showing fewer seats for Conservatives than this site has called for the Conservatives (Grenier is calling 38 for Conservatives, this site has give the Conservatives 44) means that a reexamination should be done on the 'called' races on this web site.
While this particular constituency hasn't been called, it is far more likely that this seat will go to the Liberals rather than Galipeau holding it. After all, the only reason Galipeau kept the seat was because Harper was held in check by minority governments and his program was moderate. Once Harper got is majority, things changed and the current Conservative government is not what the people of this riding want. Galipeau is gone on October 19.
15 08 16 Marc
As long as the Liberals remain above their 2011 level in Ontario, and as long as the Conservatives remain below 2011 numbers, this seat is winnable for the Liberals.
Right now the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives in Ontario. That will mean trouble for Galipeau if that stays like that until October. The Conservatives got 45% in 2011 and now they are down to 33% in Ipsos this week. That's a big drop of 12 points. Meanwhile the Liberals are up 8 points from 25% in 2011 to 33% now.
Galipeau only won this seat by 6 points in 2011 when the Conservatives won by a 20 point margin in Ontario. Now the Conservatives are having trouble just keeping the lead, so one can see why Eric Grenier's site has this leaning Liberal right now. (81% likelihood of a Liberal win).
15 08 11 Petrie Island Pontificator
I've predicted Galipeau to lose in every election since 2006 and every time I've been wrong. He is and old style politician in a riding that has trended increasingly Tory - though still very much a swing riding. It helps that Leslie is a name candidate, but if you ask the rank and file military members who live in Orleans, he wasn't a very popular guy in the Forces. I think that will play against him. His strength will be among the mid-level civil servants and the shrinking Francophone core. That will always make a close race, the question is can he swing the undecided uniform vote (Forces/RCMP). As of now, I say no. But time will tell.
15 08 08 R.O.
Royal Galipeau has been mp for this area since 2006 although every election here has remained fairly close. He is sort of like one of those city councillors that seems to get re elected each year even though he faces various competitors. liberals have a new candidate Andrew Leslie after a nomination battle with past candidate David Bertschi . and feel Galipeau has somewhat of an advantage here for time being.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This post may appear twice due to technical issues.
Here we still have the Liberals leading the polls, despite the nomination issues. I have my sincere doubts that card carrying Liberals will move en masse to the Conservatives because of the nomination. The Liberals have a 71% win confidence here according to Threehundredeight. If you believe the polls and follow the numbers like I do, then the Liberals will win here. Andrew Leslie is a strong candidate and he will win.
15 08 04 Docere
Agree with A.S. that Orleans would have been 'Tory vs. Lib Dem even in '97' if it were a UK seat. The Liberals aren't going to be picking up very many seats in Ontario with current polling, but I expect Gen. Andrew Leslie to prevail here.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Leslie might not be as big a boost as some may think. Galipeau has had this for a while and is a francophone too. Many Liberals also upset at Leslie's nomination. Edgeto to the Liberals, but still TCTC.
15 07 18 A.S.
I offered in another post than Max Khan had 2011's highest non/never-incumbent Liberal share in a non-incumbent riding--I was wrong; I forgot about David Bertschi here. In fact, against the grain of the Iggy disaster the Ottawa area proved to be a possibly-forboding sleeper for 2011's federal Grits--rather than caving in utterly, they held their surprising own almost as if the Orange Crush didn't happen (or, more properly, their critical losses already happened pre-2011); while *all* of the immediate Capital Region Con incumbents--Baird, Galipeau, O'Connor and Poilievre--lost share, even if only by the slightest margin. (And it's not the first time Ottawa's been prone to electoral foreboding--think of the 1988 federal Liberal sweep in advance of the 1993 election, or the surprising Alliance + PC muscle demonstrated in 2000.) Even with wilting Justinmania, the results show that seats like Orleans are all-too-critical cornerstones to the party's future and the mapping out thereof--and maybe that's why the matter of the nomination squabble is *especially* pregnant here, for good or for ill, who knows. But re the 'strategic vote' arguments, it *is* telling that Orleans is the kind of seat which, in the UK, would have seen a clear Tory vs LibDem kind of race even in 1997--and with polls suggesting that the Cons have still lost more relative Ontario ground from 2011 than the 'faltering' Grits, Justin is hardly in '2015 Clegg' country yet...
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Fairview Resident hit the nail on the head when posting back in April and now here in July the numbers agree. Support in the Ottawa area has swung to the Liberals. The NDP surge, which is hurting the Liberals in Toronto and elsewhere, hasn't had much of an effect here. That said, any close race from previous election-prediction-go-rounds will trend Liberal, especially with a star candidate (bad blood from some Bertschi supporters, not withstanding).
15 04 09 Fairview Resident
Despite the nomination issues, I can't see many people who voted for Bertschi over Galipeau in 2011 voting for Galipeau or someone else over Leslie in 2015. Bertschi's run for leader as a mere failed former candidate was either narcissistic and fantastical or a very expensive self-promotion that left him in debt. Either way, someone who appeared to be strong candidate for nomination ended up being a liability. Then when he didn't get his way, he decided to burn the house down, proving that he cares more about his own career than the party he sought to run, his teammates or defeating the government. While some of his supporters are upset that his green light was revoked due to his failure to pay down debts from his ill-advised leadership bid, I don't think that most of the people of Orleans care.
Since winning in 2006, Galipeau has never managed to pull away from the Liberals. While his colleagues have built incumbency advantages, he seems to have incumbency liability based on the vote spread. Now that the Liberals have closed the 20-point gap and have a candidate with solid credentials, I have a hard time seeing Galipeau hold on.
15 04 04 Carleton Student
I live in this riding. On the provincial side, Light Rail Transit was a big issue here. Lister was winning this riding for the first two weeks of the campaign. Once Hudak said he would not support Phase 2 LRT or the Ottawa River Cleanup (which would stop dumping crap from the toilets into our beach), PCPO signs started falling like a game of dominos in every corner of the seat. Therefore as a result of these two issues, (as well as from the view of someone who voted for Lalonde and who will vote for Galipeau), I can say that there is no guarantee that any LPC candidate will take the same number of votes as the OLP candidate in any part of Ontario. Harper is not, and never will be as dumb as a Hudak campaign.
15 04 04 Mr Sod
Polls now have the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical tie in Ontario (and federally) - which would give the Conservatives the edge in this bellweather riding as it's enough for them to win a minority. But there is also the mess Liberals made of the 'democratic nomination race'. Gar Knutson, who was a Liberal MP during the Jean Chretien era (different riding) had to drop out due to Trudeau's policy of candidates being pro-choice or they can't run. This left a bad taste for some that only got worse for the Liberals in the riding when David Bertschi was pushed out by Trudeau to make way for his hand-picked candidate Andrew Leslie. There are many bitter Liberals who are extremely upset and disillusioned with what happened - these are active members of the community that get out the vote. Even the Globe and Mail ran a story about it titled 'Messy nomination battle could hinder Liberal prospects in Ottawa riding'. The addition of Carlsbad Springs will have minimal effect with an extra 2000 residents, although if anything can only help the Conservatives too. Royal Galipeau is also very well liked, respected and active member of the community. Although due to some health issues (fighting cancer) he has slowed down a bit. The only way the Liberals will take this riding is if they surge ahead in the polls in the last few weeks in some sort of 'Trudeaumania' before the election. But for now, definitely a Conservative hold.
15 03 31 Marco Ricci
It's too soon to be making predictions here. Considering that Royal Galipeau only won this seat by 6 points in 2011 when his party won by a huge 20 point margin in Ontario, he is not safe here. The advantage he has is that while he may be a backbencher, he is very visible in the riding. He's one of those constituency MP's who goes to all the events, festivals, etc. in the riding.
In terms of the demographics, this is an Ottawa version of a 905 riding. It is an upper middle class area that is predominantly a suburban bedroom community. This makes it a Liberal-Conservative riding and one of the weakest NDP areas in the province. However, although the NDP finishes a very distant third here, NDP voters can make the difference in a close race. The NDP vote went up by 4 points in 2011 during the Layton Wave to about 15%. The Liberals will need to win over some NDP voters if they want to win here.
I agree that this riding probably won't see a huge swing federally because there is an incumbent CPC MP. However, as someone said below, the new Liberal MPP Marie-France Lalonde beat the PC candidate by 20 points - 53% to 33%. So there was a big swing provincially here last year. I don't think Andrew Leslie will be as strong in the Francophone community as Lalonde since he is not as well-connected to it and he is not as fluent in French. (David Bertschi was the preferred candidate by most Francophone Liberals).
However, Leslie does have Lalonde's support and will also be focusing on winning over some of the military members who live in Orléans.
Leslie & his backroom handlers did not handle the Liberal nomination well, but he can definitely still win if Trudeau reverses the Liberal decline in Ontario.
15 03 29 ottawa99
The odds seem to be in the Liberals' favour here. They won by a 20 point margin in the provincial election and only lost by 6 per cent in 2011. Given that they are polling much higher in Ontario right now than their 2011 election result, it seems like this will be a pick up. Additionally, despite the nomination controversy, Leslie is a strong candidate running against a fairly low-profile Tory backbencher. A dent in the Liberal numbers nationwide could easily swing this back into the Tory column, but I give the advantage to the Liberals right now.
15 03 28 monkey
As it usually does will probably vote for whichever party wins. Although the Liberals had a strong second place showing last time around, Ottawa is a very political town and the swing vote is much smaller than elsewhere in the province so you don't tend to get the big swings you do in the 905 belt. Lets remember in 2004 which was a bad election for the Tories in Ontario, they almost won this one thus I won't predict who will win, but I predict it will be less than 10 points separation between the two parties.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
This again will be a battleground. The Leslie factor is both a blessing and a curse for the LPC. The Conservatives benefit from picking up Carlsbad Springs. The NDP vote will drop, especially as the western edge of the riding has been sent to Vanier, but therefore if past NDP supporters go Liberal it has less of an effect. CPC win 43-41.
15 03 25 B.W.
With the addition of parts of the defunct riding, Nepean-Carleton, the new Orleans riding is going to stay Conservative despite Royal Galipeau's health issues. The Liberals are still dealing with the nomination fiasco that barred David Bertschi, who has since filed a lawsuit against the party, to run against Trudeau loyalist, Andrew Leslie. That fiasco could hurt the party's chances in their electoral bid for Orleans.
15 03 24 JC
This is tough to call, there was a nomination fiasco but Andrew Leslie is still a really good get, it's going to be close it depends how many angry liberals come home on election day.

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