Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Prediction Changed
2015-03-27 20:31:10

Constituency Profile


Bell, Duncan

Clement, Tony

Cowie, Trisha

Hodgson, Glen

McCarthy, Matt

Merton, Gordie

Smith, Albert Gray

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2220.48%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Parry Sound-Muskoka
   (216/216 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Tony Clement


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15 10 12 R.O.
the greens will do better here than most other Ontario ridings but greens more focused on other ridings than this region of Ontario. Tony Clement has been mp since 2006 and maintains a strong presence in the riding . he has a long record of experience and profile in Ottawa to run on. Although the ndp came 2nd here in 2011 it seems unlikely they will do that well in many Ontario ridings this election . its not really clear how the new liberal candidate will do here . one surprise is there is now a pirate party candidate in this riding , I don't remember them ever running candidates in this area before.
15 08 14 Craig Hubley
Glen Hodgson is the federal candidate, not Matt Richter who pulled nearly 20% of the vote in the identical provincial riding
Had the candidate been one with such a strong proven record, there would have been some (not no) chance of Parry-Sound Muskoka being a vote swap-in target as it was in 2011. Those 2011 results, and the 308 prediction now, says the NDP not the Liberals is the real threat based on 2011 numbers and polls. 308 seems not to pay any attention to provincial trends and so the Greens are factored out of their calculation, but they should not be as a three way race is most likely to become a four way race. As was proven in Saanich-Gulf Islands, and may be proven this time around in Yukon & Guelph.
If they had run the provincial candidate who got 20% I'd make this TCTC on the swap-in and cross-riding donations/volunteering and sharp focus that Greens are able to bring to bear on (at most) about five ridings in Canada.
But as it is, it's a long term Green build, or Con win v. NDP hopeful whose vote is still split among Liberal holdouts and Green insurgents.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
One of the safest Conservative seats in Ontario. The 'Minister of Gazebos' will win yet again. This riding may become competitive if and when Tony Clement retires, but until then, this is a safe Conservative seat. He will likely lose some of his vote share, but it still won't be close.
15 08 03 R.O.
Clement goes into the election with a number of advantages such as incumbency and fact he is better known than other candidates. Neither the liberal or ndp candidate is really that well known and I don't think either have run for political office in the riding before . the riding has also been mostly conservative federally and provincially over the years other than a short liberal hold during the 90's . its mostly rural but a few somewhat urban polls in the larger towns like Huntsville , Parry Sound and Bracebridge. The riding also has older demographics as a lot of seniors have moved here to retire . also not really sure what the greens are doing here they did well last provincial vote but don't appear as active federally yet.
15 08 01 A.S.
The thus-far silence on this page re Tony Clement is surprising--then again, his current term in office has been much less eventful than his G20-coloured previous term, to the point where scarely anyone's noticed he's still kicking even as other CPC giants (Baird, MacKay, Moore et al) have flown the coop. In fact, he's become a refleshing throwback to a time when four-eyed Conservative nerds could pass as affably hip-to-be-square rather than borderline South Korean a la next-genners like Pierre Poilievre. Besides, however far Clement can fall, the opposition in PSM is too fragmented--and in *three* directions, not just two. (As proven provincially in 2014--believe it or not, the provincial Greens got their best share here at 19.34%, vs the leader's 19.29% in Guelph.)
15 03 27 Dr Bear
This has become a safe seat for Clement. Unless we see a Liberal surge or they find a star candidate to run, I don't see this going anything buy Conservative.

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