Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-27 20:31:20

Constituency Profile


DeVries, Irma

Fuhr, Roger

McCotter, Stephen

Nater, John

Rabidoux, Ethan

Ramsdale, Nicole

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 8061.74%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (232/232 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Gary Schellenberger


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15 10 19 Dr.Jim
Strong conservative riding. I think many would vote liberal if the liberal candidate wasn't such a losing horse. Mcotter has no charisma and no future movement in the liberal party. John Nater will win based on previous voters strong conservatives roots. Conservatives should be nervous and vote strong though.
15 10 17 Spx
Mainstreet posted today that the losses for the Conservatives are the most pronounced in Eastern and Southwestern Ontario. Not sure exactly how that will play out in ridings like Perth-Wellington, Sarnia, Kitchener, Essex and Brantford, but if that holds up, it will spill disaster for the Conservatives. At this point I think Perth-Wellington will also go red. Liberal gain.
15 10 16 Dr. Bear
Perth Wellington is listed on threehundredeight as being close. A 5 point difference between the conservatives and liberals. I am not fully convinced but if liberal numbers keep rising in Ontario, this riding could be in play.
15 10 16 M
Further to my last post, I now feel that this is ripe for the Liberals' taking now. I mentioned in my last post that Mr. Trudeau made a campaign stop in Stratford earlier this week and commented that Perth-Wellington had to be in play. Well, confirmation of that courtesy of Mainstreet Research:
Liberal: 35%
Cons.: 36%
NDP: 21%
Greens: 8%
This is a two party race, and with the momentum on the Liberals side, this will most likely be another seat in the Liberal column. Obviously, with two ridings showing 1 point separation between the Liberals and Cons, then, most of the rural ridings in Southwestern Ontario are NOT SAFE Conservative seats anymore.
15 10 16 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/10/10) Con 36%, Lib 35%, NDP 21%. If this poll is indicative of his party's own poll findings this would explain why Trudeau has been campaigning in this riding.
15 10 16 Monkey Cheese
New poll from Mainstreet has the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical tie. Cons at 36%, Libs at 35%. NDP behind at 21% and the Greens at 8%. Things are looking really bad for the Conservatives when a riding like this is suddenly in play. This should be moved to TCTC.
15 10 15 prognosticator15
To my previous submission, I would add the CHP support beyond those who post CHP signs is very limited, in contrast to the other major parties. In any case, this is the only riding CHP is worth commenting on. As for A.S. comment on Shellenberger, his constituency has long been both PC and former Alliance supporters. I expect his long-time assistant John Nater now running as a Conservative, to fully retain most of this base if not necessarily above 50% of the vote as last time. Who knows why Trudeau and Mulcair both think the riding is in play, I suspect it is either a tactical distraction move or an overreach.
15 10 13 MM
With Trudeau making a campaign stop in Stratford, obviously this riding is in play, hence it should be changed to TCTC at this time. Trudeau would not have made this stop if the Liberals did not think that they would have any chance of taking either Perth-Wellington or even Huron-Bruce.
15 09 21 L.O.
In my area of the riding it looks like a two-way race between the New Democrats and the Christian Heritage.
I see the NDP candidate really connecting with rural voters.
15 09 16 One day longer
Huge boost for the NDP here, Green party candidate publicly endorsed the NDP candidate as the best option to defeat the conservatives in the riding.
15 09 08 Teddy Boragina
This prediction is conditional.
Conditional on the NDP returning to the strength they had in Ontario about 2 weeks ago, but the Tories remaining as weak in Ontario as they are now.
In such a case, the NDP actually can carry the riding just based on the pure math. Add to that the fact that this riding has no incumbent running, and it's quite possible for us to see the NDP taking this riding.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
Still calling it for the CPC, but the current polling numbers have me looking carefully. With 38% for the CPC, 30% for the Liberals and 25% for the NDP, there is a potential for an upset. If the CPC continue to fall in support, this one will be competitive.
15 08 30 A.S.
The 2003 Perth-Middlesex byelection was a watershed in so many ways; not only did Gary Schellenberger turn out to be the last federal PC victor ever (and in a way that not only foreshadowed the Paul Martin-era Liberal doldrums, but by some accounts helped trigger the once-and-for-all 'united right'), it was also the first election where the 'Layton effect' on the NDP first became clear (Sam Dinicol was still 4th, but for this kind of seat 15% was astronomical compared to the Audrey/Alexa era). And in a strange way, it all foreshadowed where we're at in 2015: the HarperCons arguably reassuming the 'unlikeable' stigma that led to 2003's mediocre Alliance result (under--and arguably because of--Harper's leadership, no less), *and* a ballyhooed 'ex-Tory' running for the NDP. As to the latter: it may appear a stunt on the surface (or at most, an inverse version of Jodie Jenkins in Bay Of Quinte), but Mulcair's extra campaign-tour effort out here in farm country definitely suggests that 'something's up'--not to mention that if ye shall seek ye demo which'd break with the Grits over C-51, Stratford's artsies be ye demo. (Not that the Liberals ought to be *totally* out of the picture; but their provincial 'John Wilkinson' advantage was always overleveraged.)
15 08 17 Jerrica Benton
Admittedly I don't live in Perth-Wellington, but seeing the comments about John Nater bothered me a bit - those about not knowing what he's done other than work for Mr. Schellenberger He's an accomplished academic at UWO and was on the Mitchell town council.
If you lean CPC, you couldn't have a better rep than John. He's actually a really smart guy and the utmost gentleman. That being said, as much as I respect him as an individual, I was very disappointed he decided to run under PMSH. I used to think he was too principled for that.
I don't see the riding swinging to the other parties, even though they seem to have recited excellent opponents. Then again, I'm just an avid observer from the other end of the province :)
15 08 17 One Day Longer
Ok so I really don't know where these posters are getting their info from the city of stratford is being littered with NDP signs on actual residents lawns, there is no sign of a liberal sign anywhere, and the Cons primarily have signs in public areas. There are little or no public events that the libs/cons are attending while the NDP are out every chance they can get. I think that this is a very close riding and it will come down to mere votes on election night. The NDP have the best candidate that they have had in years and are drawing support from all other parties. The NDP candidate is a former conservative campaign worker who is disgusted with Harper and the Cons. Liberals seem to be very submissive in the riding with little happening in their camp.
15 08 17 jeff316
To be, or not to be? That is the question...well, not really. The Conservatives will win this, and it won't be that close. The Liberal coalition that MPP John Wilkinson built just couldn't withstand the Conservativzing that resulted from gaining Wellington and losing the London burbs of Middlesex. The NDP may have broken 25 percent in Huron-Bruce, but Perth-Wellington is really their best shot at truly rural southwestern Ontario. But in order to succeed they would need a Grant Robertson style candidate out of the ag community that can also appeal to both Stratford arts types and the working-class underbelly that festival visitors don't see. (Stratford is essentially Woodstock with an arts festival and the cutesy downtown that brings.) But they don't have that in Rabidoux.
15 08 15 seasaw
This seat is probably going to be a lot closer than the last time. The Liberals will pick up a lot of votes, especially in Stratford, but it won't be enough to put them over top. CPC hold
15 08 07 R.O.
Although conservative mp Gary Schellenberger has retired and John Nater now cpc candidate its still a mostly rural riding other than stratford and been type of area conservatives have done well in. the 2011 numbers would require ndp or liberals to make a lot of gains here to become competitive in the riding. And ndp have found more success in urban southwestern Ontario than this area. Being open it might be more of a race than before but a riding conservatives should be able to hold.
15 08 04 Tom M
I think Perth Wellington may be the upset of the Election. Everyone thinks that this is going to be a cakewalk for the Conservatives. The Liberals and the NDP both have excellent candidates who are very well spoken and educated. Nater is taking a page out of Harpers play book and going to every event with his new baby and Westie but really hasnt said anything of substance. As long as the Libs and NDP dont split the vote, I could see the NDP sneaking one out in Perth Wellington.
15 08 03 SR
Although Perth Wellington has traditionally gone Conservative, the Liberals and the NDP have 2 excellent candidates. Both Stephen McCotter and Ethan Rabidoux are not afraid to make their opinion known and have some actual life experience. All I know about John Nater is that he has a white dog, posts pictures of his baby all over Facebook and hasn't had a job other than working for the former MP since he graduated University. I have yet to hear anything of significance from him. I dont know who I am supporting yet, but I fear that the Liberals and the NDP will split the vote and the Conservatives will win the riding.
15 04 06 One Day Longer
Well unlike the other posters here i can say that it is not a clear Con win here in Perth-wellington. Honestly all three candidates are new, young and intelligent people but the NDP candidate is pulling a huge number of people from outside the Stratford city limits to work on his campaign. I attended the nomination meeting and was shocked at the number of people that were there. Been lumbering around the local riding association for many years and can't remember a nomination meeting that was so well attended, expecting it to convert to votes in the upcoming election. Should be a very tight race with NDP squeaking out the win.
15 03 29 Jason
Open seat, but a Conservative friendly riding. Should be an easy hold for them.
15 03 29 monkey
The Tories might lose Stratford which as an artsy city tends to lean to the left, but 2/3 of the population live elsewhere in the riding and those areas regardless of the candidate will go solidly Tory meaning a Conservative win.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
Once upon a time, this was fertile Liberal soil. No any more. They still have substantial support provincially but seemingly not federally. I think it'll be a safe CPC hold.

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