Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:48:41

Constituency Profile


Chan, Arnold

Chang, Bin

Coutinho, Jude

Patrick, Laura

Scott, Debra

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (186/186 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Arnold Chan


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 09 23 Allih2
I have lived in the Riding of Scarborough-Rouge River since its inception and the demographics are constantly changing. Liberal MP Derek Lee was very popular with the constituents and I think the reason is that he was very involved with the Community and had excellent service to constituents - doors open policy - no waiting for appointments. With his resignation this seat was wide open. While the new MP is very visible in photo-ops and is seen all the time at events in the riding - she is NOT ACCESSIBLE TO HER CONSTITUENTS. This is a common complaint - her office is only open to constituent for a few hours on certain day and that to BY APPOINTMENT ONLY. It took them over 2 months to return a call for assistance by then I had already contacted a neighboring riding and begged for assistance - the staff told me this is a common complaint and all neighboring ridings in Scarborough get calls from this Member's riding because her office does not assist. [edited] Shaun Chen is fair competition he is a know elected officer who has demonstrated that he is willing to serve his constituents. I think he has a very good chance of winning this riding back for the Liberals. Radhika may be popular among her supporters but she has done nothing for the constituents of this riding. Her youth and inexperience are evident at her lack of grasp of constituent concerns.
15 08 09 Docere
When the Liberal Party's 'Bloc Scarberia' fell in 2011, Jimmy K easily hung on with an 11 point margin of victory. Agincourt, with a large Chinese community that leans center-right, was barely touched by the NDP surge in Scarborough. I could see all the other Scarborough ridings going NDP, but not this one. The Conservatives aren't much of a factor here either, though this was the best riding in Toronto for Hudak's PCs last year, even edging out their federal counterparts both in the last federal election and by-eleton (perhaps due to Jimmy K's social conservatism and Tammany Hall-type politics in the former and the failure of the Conservatives to run a Chinese candidate in the by-election in the latter). Agincourt is certainly among the three safest ridings for the Liberals in Ontario.
15 04 12 A.S.
Though in the event that the JasonKenneyCons were seeking to extend their ethnoburban 416 reach, here's something foreboding to consider: provincially in 2014, *this*, of all things, turned out the be the PCs' best riding in the 416 (34.63%--better, even, than Doug Holyday's 34.35% bid to consolidate on his Etobicoke-Lakeshore byelection win).
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
Liberal hold. Long-term Liberal MP Karygiannis managed to win here fairly comfortably in 2011, despite the Ignatieff collapse. Some people wondered whether it was more of a Karygiannis seat when he left for municipal politics last year, but then Arnold Chan ended up winning by a much larger margin in the by-election. Probably the most solid Liberal riding in Scarborough. Only question is Chan's health. He recently announced he was taking a leave of absence to receive cancer treatment, although he hopes to be back soon.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
One of the safest Liberal 416 holds. Held through the 2011 collapse, held in byelection, and in a general Liberal rise with a popular leader - safe.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Safely held in 2011. Safely held in the byelection. Liberals up and both the CPC and NDP down from last election-predition-go-round, easy Liberal hold.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster