Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 20:53:53

Constituency Profile


Burger, Patrick

Clement, Bernadette

Kennedy, Elaine

Lauzon, Guy

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1510.32%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
   (232/232 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Guy Lauzon


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15 10 07 R.O.
Guy Lauzon was first elected here in 2004 and held riding ever since , been a fairly reliable conservative riding in recent years. also held by the provincial conservatives as well . it's the type of riding conservatives should hold onto
15 08 23 A.S.
The ultimate Conservative electoral wet dream come true: once a safe Liberal seat, now a CPC landslide seat where, for three fed/prov elections running, the Libs and NDP have been perfectly deadlocked. Used to be that industrial Cornwall overruled rural SDG; now it's vice versa--but for how long can such status quo last? About the best an anti-Con can wish for is the Mulcair grand coalition bleeding across the ON-QC border--and in all likelihood such bleed would be confined to Cornwall + a few Franco-Ontarian patches. Or, the Con vote being whittled down to a manageable rural-rump core, much as it was during the Liberal years. Is the Guy Lauzon era the new norm, or a blip? Who knows; and at any rate, it'd take more than this present cycle for a viable alternative to make itself clear...
15 05 17 #ABC51
While the Trudeau brand has always been strong in Cornwall, it's not exactly the sort of place where one's support for Bill C-51 is something to brag about. Look for the NDP and the Greens to continue making inroads in Cornwall -- where union and Francophone voters have been abandoning the Liberals in droves -- while the Counties ensure that Lauzon is returned with a reduced landslide.
15 03 28 monkey
Interestingly enough this used to be a fairly safe Liberal riding, but in recent elections its been one of the Conservatives' strongest ridings in Ontario so even if they do poorly in Ontario they should hold this. In fact the Ontario PCs only got over 50% of the popular vote in 4 ridings and this was one of those four.
15 03 28 D.M.
The Conservatives would be heading to oblivion if they can't hold this rural Eastern Ontario riding. Over 60% of the vote in 2011. The margin of victory might shrink a little but this riding isn't going anywhere but the CPC column.

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