Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton Griesbach

Prediction Changed
2015-05-16 10:35:27

Constituency Profile


Diotte, Kerry

Gold, Brian

Goncharenko, Maryna

Irwin, Janis

Joyce, Mary

Northcott, Linda

Thompson, Bun Bun

Workman, Heather

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Edmonton East
   (176/219 polls, 78.74% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Goldring

   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (43/219 polls, 21.26% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brent Rathgeber


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 17 poljunkiebc
I'm going to call this one for the CPC. There was a time during this campaign when the NDP had a serious shot at it, but as it's unfolded-- along with the red surge (which will have a limited effect here, but still...), the CPC has, by all polling accounts maintained their Alberta dominance. Yes I realize the urban/rural splits in the province, but I think the NDP is dashed for hopes of adding another MP this time around.
15 10 15 PAULC
as much as the NDP are licking their chops at the possibility of taking this riding, it appears that support has been steadily leaning towards Kerry Diotte and the CPC . A mailout by the NDP showing a poll with them ahead by 15% was actually from a June Poll shortly after the orange wave of the provincial NDP victory. Diotte appears to have a loyal group of campaign workers in place who have doorknocked and promoted Diotte . This race is TCTC .
15 10 05 prognosticator15
It is interesting to watch how the NDP boost in opinion polls has fared since Alberta early elections this past May (blame Jim Prentice for election call). Outside of the province, 'they must be really good if they even beat PC in Alberta' factor has gradually been diminishing since then, but the federal elections are still close enough for the Alberta vote to matter somewhat. In Alberta, however, even though Premier Notley has distanced herself from more controversial Mulcair comments like cap-and-trade program, provincial NDP has become a liability of its own, perhaps even more so than Wynne Liberals for federal Liberals. About 5 months after Alberta election is long enough for Albertans to reconsider a few things, opposition to NDP policies is growing, and with it support for federal NDP goes down. With signs of softening NDP support and Cons vote staying stable in the province, it is time to move this riding to TCTC. I agree with A.S. on the direction, and also think it may turn out that Linda Duncan's sole NDP seat may also end up being the sole NDP riding after 2015 election, the way things go now. Both parties will marshall support here before election day, and it would be very interesting to watch this two-way race.
15 09 29 A.S.
Oh dear, after all that hype about Notleymania's potential national echo, it appears that the NDP's actual net Alberta gain might wind up being precisely one (1) seat--if even that, given how things are going...
15 09 23 Lolitha
NDP have strong polling lead in this riding, tons of signage.
15 09 17 Art
This place is a sea of orange signs, especially in the south. Even in the north, the NDP is beating the Cons by a healthy margin.
15 09 01 R.O.
This riding would seem like one the ndp have potential in. but dynamics are not the same federally as provincial election And not the right of centre wildrose/pc votesplit. The longtime conservative incumbent Peter Golding is not running for re-election . however the new conservative candidate Kerry Diotte is still high profile , he was a city councillor and ran for mayor of Edmonton. The conservatives are also still poling well in alberta and normally win this riding so it may be an area they still have potential in. I'd say its too close to call for time being
15 08 24 BC predictor
While I think Calgary seats will be business as usual (CPC with large margin victories) Edmonton will be far more competitive. Past CPC sweeps and almost sweeps were the exception to what I feel should be a fairly NDP leaning city. The NDP will likely win more Edmonton seats than the tories and this is one of them.
15 08 20 Garth
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the NDP with a substantial lead over the Conservatives in this riding.
15 08 14 Art
It's not just the Notley win, it's the fact that the NDP has a history of winning in this riding at the provincial level. It has a history of building solid organizations of volunteers.
Look at the provincial ridings:
Edmonton Highlands-Norwood: Was NDP before the May election. Has been NDP since 1997. Voted 78% NDP on May 5th.
Edmonton Beverly-Clareview: Was NDP before the May election. Voted 74% NDP on May 5th
Edmonton Decore: Voted 68% NDP on May 5th
Edmonton Manning: Only a small part of Manning is in Griesbach, but the provincial riding voted 72% NDP
Edmonton Calder: Has voted NDP off and on before this year, voted 71% NDP on May 5th.
That's a massive amount of votes for the NDP. They won't have the Notley wave on October 19th, but they won't need it.
15 07 06 Stevo
Seasaw : I think most people here know that the dynamics of provincial and federal elections are very different and one cannot use one to forecast the other. That is no great revelation. But it would be equally unreasonable to suggest that one has NO influence WHATSOEVER on the other, especially when we're talking about an election as recent and historic as the Notley victory. By doubting NDP strength here, in the NDP's second best riding in the province, you are basically saying that the NDP will not win any other seats in Alberta beyond Edm-Strathcona. An extreme prediction, in my opinion. Moreover, I don't see on what basis you can compare Notley to Rae other than the names of their parties. Rae was elected by accident and proceeded to launch a far-left activist government with such nonsense as race/gender job quotas and stacking the Labour Relations board with union mobsters. Notley is a pragmatist who earned her way to the premier's office through hard work and brilliant campaign; no accident here, by the end of the provincial campaign it was pretty clear the ground was shifting irreversibly. There is no indication that she will govern anything like Rae. Yes, I believe Edmonton will deliver another 2-3 NDP seats, along with one in Calgary and, if Mulcair really surges and Harper tanks, Lethbridge too.
15 07 01 seasaw
A little too early to predict this riding. I know a lot of people think because NDP won provincially, therefore it'll be an easy pick up for them, however, as I have mentioned about a hundred times, federal and provincial elections are two totally different animals, so we can't always predict which way it'll go. One thing that may come to play though, is the Notely factor which may effect the outcome. Notely maybe like Rae in Ontario, I remember in the weeks after taking office, everybody was very enthusiatic, within six months though, people couldn't wait to get rid of him. If that's the case with Notely, NDP may even come third.
15 05 19 bza
Even without the orange wave of the provincial election, I think this riding would have gone NDP. Janice Irwin was nominated nearly a year ago, and has been doorknocking and doing voter outreach ever since. This is also a very blue collar part of Edmonton that has had strong NDP provincial voting patterns going back a few election cycles.
There is no Conservative incumbent, and Kerry Dioette who came in 3rd place in the race for Mayor and was a former City Councillor, doesn't bring a lot of extra appeal. As we saw in the provincial election, when Tony Caternia, a city coucillor a ran against Deron Bilious he lost quite significantly.
15 05 10 Mr. Dave
The complete sweep of Edmonton by the provincial NDP will have an effect on this fall's election.
Peter MacKay's comment about Albertastan will not go down well with the voters who saw themselves as punishing 'The Entitled Ones' of the P.C. party, and give greater emphasis to those wanting change federally as well as provincially.
NDP pick-up!
15 05 10 Stevo
This is low-hanging fruit for the NDP after the Notley landslide. Kerry Diotte, mayoral candidate who achieved 15% of the vote, will be no match for the NDP here. Even Stephen Mandel, popular former 3-term mayor of Edmonton, couldn't win as a PC candidate in the provincial election.
15 04 28 Madcaper
With a strong candidate in Janis Irwin running and the recent surge in New Democrat support Federally across the Province I think this seat should flip to the New Democrats. I don't see the Liberals being a factor here and the glow has gone off the Conservative Government in this riding.308.com has Janis Irwin ahead by a fair amount for what it is worth. Should be a new democrat gain on E-night
15 04 26 Docere
Urban Albertans appear to be trending away from voting like Albertans and more like urban voters. With the NDP surge under Rachel Notley centered in Edmonton and the federal election being held so closely to the provincial election, the former Edmonton East (won federally in 1988) could be an NDP pickup. However I say TCTC for now.
15 04 06 Brian A
With Notley riding high, and Edmonton set for a potential orange wave provincially, Tom has his eyes on snagging another foothold in Alberta. Ground zero of that initiative seems to be right here.
15 03 30 JC
I think the NDP can win the Edmonton Riding, more so in other parts of the Country the Left is a little bit more united in getting its act together, Kerry Diotte ran for Mayor and got just 15% of the vote he also ran under the slogan Diotte or Detroit which is nothing but hyperbole. I think Daniol Coles is a talented candidate but the NDP really want this seat and I think in the interest of less Tories in Alberta voters will get behind Janis Irwin.
15 03 29 monkey
My guess is the Tories will hold this since although this is not the most friendly Tory riding, you will need the centre-left to unite under one banner and not sure that will happen. While last election the NDP was the clear choice, this time around its less clear. Lets remember from 1993-2004, the Liberals either won here or came fairly close so I could see any of the three parties taking this one.
15 03 26 Dr. Bear
Polling shows that the NDP are very competitive here. I'd never have thought!
15 03 25 Jack Cox
This is an interesting riding, on paper it should go Tory, but Diotte is not exactly a really well liked guy here, it could end up being a three way race but I think the NDP may have the best chance of pulling off an upset.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster