Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam

Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:19:39

Constituency Profile


Dahlby, Lewis Clarke

Horne, Douglas

McKinnon, Ron

Nickason, Brad

Norman, Sara

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3640.90%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
   (170/170 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. James Moore


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15 10 16 PoCo Prediction
The split on the left won't be big here. The Liberals don't have much presence. Factor in the NDP base of Port Coquitlam and sinking Tory fortunes and this will be an NDP grab for Sara Norman
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
The CPC will probably take this by the narrowest of margins due to a split on the left. A few weeks ago, I would have called this for the NDP, but with the Liberal surge biting into both NDP and CPC votes, this will especially play out here, and maybe elsewhere. A very tight three way race, with probably a winning margin in the 1-2% range for the CPC. They may be barely scrape past 30% but still win.
15 10 14 Tri-Cities-Prediction
It'll be a close one for sure. But with the immigrant population in Coquitlam swinging to Liberals it'll take a big part of the Conservatives vote. PoCo has a huge NDP base and the local MLA (hugely popular) seems to be endorsing NDP candidate Sara Norman. It'll just depend on the anti-Harper voters voting for Sara. Amount of signs seems to indicate she has the momentum going in.
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
A new Environics riding poll was released today showing a 3-way race for Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, with the NDP having a narrow lead:
NDP/Norman (34)
Conservative/Horne (31)
Liberal/McKinnon (29)
Green/Nickason (6)
15 10 13 BC predictor
Most of the CPC voters here aren't one election wonders like in Vancouver south or the north shore. I think these types of ridings will return CPC MP's with reduced margins of victory for the most part although an NDP win isnt out of the question. I have a hard time trusting BC level polling numbers (with samples around 300 people) after the BC election.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
Can't find a riding level poll but nearby Port Moody -- Coquitlam hung on to a 7 point lead in a Sept. 20 Environics poll, over the Conservative. In the last couple of weeks of the campaign the soft progressives (Green, Liberal, and stay-home-if-it's-a-lock NDP voters) tend to shift to the ABC leader. In this case no one doubts it is the NDP. So while a narrowing 7 point lead doesn't look like a lot, it'll be bolstered by an influx of NDP donors and volunteers into a close seat, while the Cons probably have lots of other closer seats to pursue. It's neither a Green nor Liberal target so both formal and informal vote swaps will uniformly favour the NDP here.
Normally I'd consider this TCTC but it is also the last coastal seat other than Richmond Centre (special case due to the Chinese community) that the Conservatives retain much chance in that has any Pacific salt water in it.
And there is no trust for the Conservative Party of Canada on the Pacific.
15 09 08 Brian Donovan
Based on current polling, I give this narrowly to the NDP - with a caveat. This seat is largely made up of the City of Port Coquitlam. Port Coquitlam is Mike Farnworth country - the NDP MLA who is one BC's most popular politicians. If Mike Farnworth voters carry their support over to the Federal NDP then Sara Norman will be the next MP for this area.
15 09 01 R.O.
High profile conservative mp James Moore has decided not to seek re-election as mp for this riding . however Douglas Horne has been nominated as the new candidate. He has been elected in this area for the bc liberals and served as mla since 2009. So although the current mp is leaving the cpc still has a strong candidate for this riding. I think the ndp will do better in ridings like this but not sure it change hands.
There was also a poll from angus reid released august 26 and it had regional numbers and polled around 800 voters in bc. The ndp was leading however not by a significant margin . there numbers for bc were 37 ndp , 32 cpc and 22 liberal. At those numbers the conservatives would still be able to hold many of there historical ridings considering much of the ndp support is in metro Vancouver and Vancouver island.
15 08 31 Laurence Putnam
The Westwood Plateau has become too tony for this riding to go NDP. Despite flirtations with the NDP occasionally, this was always prime PC/Socred meat and potatoes territory and even without a high profile candidate like Moore, the Conservatives ought to win with 40-45% of the vote.
15 08 24 BC predictor
It will be tighter than 2011 but the CPC vote here is too large and, far more important, their campaign too strong for it to swing elsewhere
15 08 13 PoCon
Even when Moore was in the mix, the NDP and LPC had a tendency to field weak or irrelevant candidates and this unfortunately is the case again this time. Surprising since the NDP use to have a lockhold on the tri-cities area. As for a previous comment about PoCo being home to down and outers, PoCo still has civic services like muncipal garbage collection and isn't home to a Hells Angels clubhouse.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Without James Moore, the Conservatives have no hope in regaining this riding if the current BC polls are to be believed. Threehundredeight has the NDP with a 10 point lead and a 71% win confidence. I have to think that they are favoured here. NDP gain.
15 08 05 PHYSASTR Master
I think this is at the point where it can be called for the NDP. With polling numbers the way they are, the NDP and Cons should be closer in the total seat count anyway. Provincially this is made up of Port Coquitlam (Strong NDP) and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (Liberal Leaning), which added up lend to an NDP win. Admittedly federal and provincial politics are very different in BC, but the federal and provincial NDP have near identical numbers right now, with the rest being divided between the Libs and Cons which would go nearly entirely liberal provincially. 308 has had this going NDP for a while not even considering Moore's absence. NDP pick-up.
15 08 02 2015
Have to go with the NDP here, with a lead in BC and it being an open seat.
15 07 15 Jack Cox
With Moore unexpectedly not running, I have to think this is an NDP-Tory fight with the NDP having the edge due to regional numbers.
15 06 28 A.S.
As has been said on this site in the past, James Moore's been a bit of a Jim Flaherty figure for Greater Vancouver, someone with a seat-ensuring 'personal following' beyond partisan politics--but even so, the present seat's drawn in such a way that the NDP'd have to 'reach a little' even w/o Moore. So, I wouldn't jump the gun on this being open-seat low-hanging fruit, either.
15 06 19 Mr. Dave
James Moore has announced he's not going to be running in 2015 after all.
This seat should become T.C.T.C., as the NDP's growing strength in B.C. makes this seat (and others) in play that were solidly Conservative in the past.
15 05 17 Vik Lazlo
(Edited) The riding on the Coquitlam side slants heavily conservative, while PoCo is a mix of strident NDPers, down-and-outers, middle of the roaders and some reasonably well off. Moore's recent slag about how rail traffic safety and oil and pipelines could resonate a little, as well as his gov't and his own poor performance in defending Coast Guard cuts in the face of pipeline pushing. It would take a lot of things to put this riding in play -- his popularity weakened is just one factor, and that he's essentially one of those pasty-faced career politicos that Harper loves to mould in his own image. No, no shocker here unless there's a big orange or red wave to turf the conservatives out.
15 04 01 Dr. Bear
This is a James Moore riding and he is personally popular. He will garner margins greater than what his party. Easy CPC hold.
15 03 29 monkey
If James Moore weren't seeking re-election, this might be winneable for the Liberals or perhaps even NDP, but as a future leader and more moderate type, he should ensure this stays Conservative.
15 03 22 Brian A
There aren't too many urban areas in BC that are safe for Harper anymore, but James Moore won't be losing his seat. He's a young star in the CPC caucus, one of the most moderate members from BC in a group that consists largely of ex-Reformites, and he's most likely going to be a frontrunner when Harper retires/has his government tossed out.

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