Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:35:14

Constituency Profile


Biley, Barbara

Duncan, John

Johns, Gord

Powell-Davidson, Carrie

Sollitt, Glenn

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4800.84%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (188/271 polls, 68.84% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

James Lunney

   Vancouver Island North
   (83/271 polls, 31.16% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John Duncan


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15 10 15 Island Rancher
Who but a lefty partichnik would quote a poll from the 'friends of the cbc'.....to make a case about their great red hope being in the lead, in the hope to influence the outcome on the actual election...they sound as bad as the Ndp pundits during the Provincial election 2 years ago...ok lets try their way.....I spoke to two women today in this riding who have said they are either voting Conservative or Green, not decided yet but definately not Ndp or Liberal...i am giving a slight nod to the incumbent John Duncan to pull this out
15 10 15 Conservative Pundit
An Insights West poll conducted on October 10 with 400 adult residents of this riding gives the following result: 25% NDP, 23% Conservative, 13% Liberal, 11% Green and 27% undecided. This seems to match other comments below, but considering how close the top two are and the large number of undecided, I call it TCTC.
15 10 14 Island Rancher
I was in Courtenay today, an I can assure everyone who cares, that this riding is nothing but a 2 horse race between the Torys and the Dippers. There are the odd Green signs, and the only Grit signs are on public verges....I cant speak for Parksville, Qualicum or the Alberni Inlet but it looks like there may be a slight edge to John Duncan here, who has been a considerably well liked MP for the North Island region since the Reform days. Once again, like its hinterland to the north, Courtenay is a very Libertarian and independent minded segment of the BC population, and a long 4,700km from Ottawa and only a short 4200km to Honolulu....
15 10 15
This race is too close To call, for the following reasons..
1. Riding Polls-Two recent riding polls peg this race with in 2-3 points between the CONS and NDP
Mainstreet Research OCT 8th NDP 33 CON 30 LIB 20 Green 16
Insights West OCT 10th NDP 34 CON 32 LIB 18 Green 15
While the NDP lead their lead is small.
2.This is the most winnable riding on VI (more on this below), SO the Conservatives will most likely put the most resources in the final few days in hopes of holding on to it.
3. The Incumbency Factor, John Duncan is the incumbent MP who served as the MP for VI North(The Comax Vally part of VI North is now Courtney-Alberni)is running in this riding.
4. The riding by design is one of the few riding's on VI that leans CON., While the NDP will do well in the Port Alberni part of this riding, the Conservatives will do equally well in the Parksville- Qualicum area of this riding, this leaves the Comax Vally as the region that will decide this riding While it would not be surprising if the NDP win in the Comox Vally , this area has trended Conservative traditionally.
15 10 13 SC
New Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting shows a tight race. This is an area where the Liberals and Greens' expanded vote could imperil an NDP gain and assist the Tories. The polls show 33 NDP, 30 CPC, 20 LPC, 16 GPC among decided voters; 29 NDP, 28 CPC, 19 LPC, 14 GPC amongst all voters. 10% undecided.
If the NDP's national momentum continues to flag, they could lose out on this one.
15 10 14 Jeff S
TCTC. With a lean to the NDP.
15 10 14 JC
Mainstreet Research poll shows
30-Conservative Party
I think other voters might see this poll an go towards Gord Johns to block the Tories here.
15 10 12 R.O.
The fact that Mulciar spent the last few days visiting ridings on Vancouver island once scene as safe for the ndp. Leads me to suspect some of these ridings remain fairly close and could go either way in the final week. The conservatives have a fairly high profile incumbent in this riding John Duncan who kept managing to get re-elected when faced with tough ndp challenges in years past . although this new riding was actually most of retiring mp James Lunney's riding so its harder to predict at this point.
15 10 10 Mark in Mexico
There have been six riding polls in five ridings on Vancouver Island, and in all but one case the Conservative polled exactly where models would suggest. That one case is Courtney-Alberni, where even when the NDP were up by more than 20 points island-wide, they were up only six points in the riding poll, and the Conservatives beat the models by seven points.
The NDP and Conservatives are both bleeding Island votes, but the NDP definitely cannot count on leading anyone by 20 points on the Island. It's difficult to envision the Liberals or Greens being competitive in Courtenay-Alberni this late in the game, so where all the votes will end up is similarly difficult to see in the crystal ball. The Conservatives are likely to take at least a third of the vote here, so If the ABH movement doesn't line up behind the NDP, the Island may as yet return a Conservative MP. TCTC.
15 10 03 A.S.
When it comes to concentrated party efforts, the real defining factor here in the end might be that John Duncan is the last sitting Conservative left running in Vancouver Island--and with the Cons once again flirting with a majority, well, that's gotta factor in.
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
I'm withdrawing my NDP prediction due to NDP steady slump over the entire campaign including in BC, and a Conservative recovery in BC. Not due to perception of Green threat even though it is a wild card if the Greens have enough donations, volunteers, national backroom figures, vote swaps and etc to pile into this riding as well as the other dozen they targeted. All of which are more strategic than this one in the long run.
I don't believe the Green support on Vancouver Island is proportionate across all Vancouver Island ridings either, so it's not electorally very effective to elect MPs. Certainly not where Conservatives remain threats and Greens are inhibited against giving the NDP an 'I told you so' for the next election.
15 09 23 R.O.

I came across a poll for this riding on insights west polling page it's a small sample of 300 riding residents but there numbers were 30 ndp , 25 cpc, 10 lib , 9 green , 26 % undecided . according to this pollster the ndp lead has shrunk since they did a similar poll in july. this riding remains a close ndp/conservative race.
15 08 31 Laurence Putnam
While this is probably the one seat at which the Conservatives will retain a good shot....in all likelihood I sense the NDP being the only winners of the main parties...only May is safe.
15 08 28 Griffin Lea
The recent Insights West poll showing a tightening two way race on the Island, the Green Party is clearly within striking distance of taking any or even all of the Island ridings. The poll put the Green Party at 32% (up 12 points from 20% three months ago) and the NDP at 39% (down 7 points from 46%). This is incredibly huge momentum. When combined with the great candidates in every Island riding as well as the fact that the Green Party will now benefit from Liberal and Conservative voters who are wary of an NDP majority and interested in doing something exciting with their vote, the whole Island may very well get painted Green.
15 08 18 R.O.
Current mp John Duncan is running for re election in this riding . considering his profile as mp/cabinet minister and history of managing to get re elected by small margins here it might be foolish to count him out at this point. Although the riding has been redistributed it still would of voted cpc in 2011 by a small margin. The ndp does have a lot of support on Vancouver island and they will get votes here , however considering the ridings history there might be more of a race here then some posters want us to believe. I'd say too close to call at this point
15 07 14 MadCaper
This shuld be an easy pick up for the New Democrats.With the constant drop in Conservative support and the N.D.P.surging in the province Federally I fell safe in calling this seat for the New Democrats.
15 06 08 Mr. Dave
Conservative support on Vancouver Island has been taking a nose-dive, along with Liberal support.
While the Greens may be in contention in a few other ridings, this one will be going Orange in 2015.
NDP pick-up!
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
A recent Insights West poll has the NDP at 33% and the Conservatives at 23% in this riding. With Conservative support dropping in BC and the trends favouring NDP support here, this is an easy NDP pickup.
15 05 16 Gillian
NDP support has grown in every election (2000, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011). We even won the old riding Vancouver Island North in 2006. John Duncan is past his best before date. Vancouver Island is the most anti-Harper place in Canada. Easy NDP pick-up.
15 04 02 BJ
In order to get a better grasp of this riding one needs to look at both the demographics as well as the underlying riding results from the BC 2013 provincial election.
This riding encompasses 2 provincial ridings:
1. Parksville-Qualicum: This riding is the provincial BC Liberals strongest seat on Vancouver Island. Compared to 2009, in 2013 the combined BC Liberal and BC Conservative popular vote share increased by a considerable 13%. This provincial riding also includes a large and growing retiree population especially from Alberta. As a demographic, older voters turnout in much higher numbers than younger voters.
2. Alberni-Pacific Rim - While NDP-held provincially, the combined BC Liberal and BC Conservative popular vote share here also increased by a considerable 11% in 2013.
The foregoing shows a definitive right-ward drift of the federal riding.
Again, the federal Liberals will see an increase in popular vote share here. The surging Greens on Vancouver Island will also see a large increase in popular vote share here - part of the overall Vancouver Island trend. Not enough for the Greens to win here though.
Although the CPC won by a 4% margin in this redistributed riding back in 2011, the CPC held a similar transposed vote share in 2008 but won by a larger 9% margin due to a higher Liberal and popular vote share. Also leads one to the conclusion that, in this riding, both increased Liberal and Green popular vote share came exclusively at expense of NDP.
Apparently current Vancouver Island North CPC MP John Duncan foresees the same and has switched over to this riding as incumbent James Lunney is retiring. ?Saftest? CPC seat on Vancouver Island for whatever that is worth. CPC hold.
15 04 01 Dr. Bear
Mr Lunney has left the Conservative caucus to sit as an independent because he wants to spout his religious views, yet not hurt the party. I don't buy it. I think he was told to keep his mouth shut and his reluctance led to this apparent amicable divorce from the party. There are others who readily spout their views from the backbenches and they're still welcome in the party (after they're told to shut it). Any case, Lunney wasn't running so his defection will have little impact on the race...or will it? It all depends on how nutty his views are. If he becomes very vocal and his views seem over the top, then the Conservatives may be impacted by (former) association. While most people would just think 'Glad he's not running again'' and evaluate the CPC based on the current candidate, there will be enough thinking, 'If they had this nut, there's going to be others'. With this latter mindset, it could tip a close race. BC CPC numbers are down enough to make the NDP a real contender in this riding. I'd be compelled to say NDP gain, but I'm going to wait and see...
15 03 29 monkey
Close race and in this case the Greens and Liberals will be kingmakers as any votes they gain it will depend on who it comes from even though neither can win here.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
As with other nearby ridings, in this one, the anti-Harper voter knows what to do. Cons are too strong to overcome with a split vote so there will be Greens offering to vote NDP here to get NDP votes nearby in at least one other riding (not Saanich-Gulf which May will hold on her own, but possibly Vancouver Centre which the Greens may try to take from Libs, or Yukon which has strong BC coastal ties and is a likely Green pickup).
Again, no matter how much Trudeau and Harper focus on each other, in this riding the vote for change is NDP, period, and every local voter will know that.

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