Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:02:28

Constituency Profile


Greenwood, Matthew

McLeod, Cathy

Powrie, Steve

Sundhu, Bill

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1850.33%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (217/217 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Cathy McLeod


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15 10 14 poljunkiebc
This used to be a prime target of the NDP provincially and federally (guess it still is provincially), but it seems some shift has occurred in the past 20 years or so that has really shored up CPC support in the Kamloops area. Maybe its more people from Alberta, or fewer supporters among industrial trades and unions around here. The CPC is likely to bleed a lot here, as elsewhere in BC, but should hold this by a few % points.
15 10 10 Mark in Mexico
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo and Kootenay-Columbia were the NDP's brightest hopes for Interior pick-ups, but with the Liberals certain to rise and the Conservatives polling respectably in the Interior, those hopes have been dimmed, if not dashed outright. I'd even say Kamloops is more likely to elect a Conservative than Kelowna at this point...who would have thought?
15 09 30 A.S.
One more reason to not overestimate the NDP here is that it was really more of a 'Nelson Riis' than a 'NDP' seat over the 80s/90s--in fact, the provincial part's had a recent 'like Nelson Riis never happened' history of underdelivering relative to expectations in Kamloops. Of course, doesn't make it a hopeless cause in the event the NDP remains in some kind of BC lead come e-day, but...
15 09 15 DP
It's premature to be calling Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo for the NDP. The Conservatives are on the upswing in BC and I distinctly remember the NDP vote being overestimated in the last provincial election.
15 09 04 blondboybc
Of all the interior ridings currently held by the Cons, this one is most likely to swing NDP, especially given polling averages over the last month. With the Cons down 15%-20% from 2011, this one is a likely pickup for the NDP. Mulcair's recent rally in Kamloops was packed to overflow, and you could feel the energy of change in the air. Unless the trend changes, which I doubt, the Cons can kiss this seat goodbye in October.
15 09 01 R.O.
This riding has been a frequent ndp target as it was an ndp riding years ago but has stayed conservative since first voting for alliance in 2000 election. 3 time ndp candidate Michael Crawford isn't running again so not sure how that will affect the ndp vote . Cathy Mcleod is running again for the conservatives and has been mp since 2008. This is one of the more competitive bc interior ridings but still an area the cpc has done well in.
There was also a poll from angus reid released august 26 and it had regional numbers and polled around 800 voters in bc. The ndp was leading however not by a significant margin . there numbers for bc were 37 ndp , 32 cpc and 22 liberal. At those numbers the conservatives would still be able to hold many of there historical ridings considering much of the ndp support is in metro Vancouver and Vancouver island.
15 08 25 Jeff S
Insights West poll out today has NDP at 41% in BC, with the Conservatives falling behind the Liberals. With those numbers, they should take at least 25 of the 42 ridings, including this one.
15 08 24 BC predictor
Historic swing riding and the results from 2011 hide this. With the current political climate pointing to cpc losing seats in BC and the NDP picking up i'd call this one for the NDP.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
As I've noticed across BC, the NDP are on the rise in the province and the Conservatives are down. Historical NDP ridings such as this are now in play and no longer considered safe Conservative seats.
15 07 18 Mr. Dave
With ForumResearch showing national poll results of NDP 34% - Conservative 27% - Liberal 27%; and EKOS showing NDP 33% - Conservatives 27% - Liberal 24%; while regional polling shows the NDP around 40% in B.C., it's looking like this riding will be going back to the NDP on October 19th.
15 07 06 Poll reviewer
308.com has this riding at 75% for the NDP as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends.
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should at least be TCTC at this point.
15 07 06 Dr Bear
The BC interior has been one of the great sleeper regions for the NDP. The polling numbers seem to suggest an NDP win with about 46% of the vote vs 36% for the CPC. This was a long time NDP riding and with current numbers I'd say it'll be one again.
15 05 27 Canadian Election Atlas
With BC now a three-way tie, historical NDP seats like this one may be in play. Especially with the anti-NDP vote split between the Conservatives and Liberals. In BC, vote switching is more common between the 'free enterprise' Liberal and Conservative parties, which means the NDP has a shot at winning Kamloops.
15 03 29 monkey
Provincially, this has always been a bellwether riding meaning whomever wins here wins provincewide, but federally that has not been the case. While the NDP should do well on the north side of Kamloops, when you consider how badly they did in the last provincial election where they tend to do better than their federal counterparts, their odds don't look good now. Still this is one riding that if the NDP and Liberals agreed to only run one candidate, they may have a shot at taking, but otherwise it will stay Conservative.
15 03 27 BJ
The underlying provincial ridings, or portions thereof, are Kamloops-South Thompson, Kamloops-North Thompson, and Cariboo-Chilcotin. A major popular vote share shift occurred here between the 2009 and 2013 BC elections. In each of these provincial ridings, the combined centre-right BC Libs and right-wing BCCP garnered up to a 12% increase in popular vote share over 2009.
Concurrently, the BC NDP popular vote share dropped here by up to 10%. Those two corresponding values substantially increased the winning margins of the BC Liberal candidates, in 2013, in these 3 underlying provincial ridings.
Why is that relevant? The NDP was branded as anti-resource development/anti-jobs, which is very relevant in this interior BC riding unlike urban west coast BC with its conflicting enviro values. Produces a political schism. That stigma will no doubt also hound the federal NDP here in 2015.
The only question, in this riding, is which party will place 2nd - the NDP or Liberals?!
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Always a CPC riding. No reason this will change in 2015.
Editor's Note: Kamloops was the seat of long time NDP MP Nelson Riis between 1980-2000.

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