Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Langley-Aldergrove


Prediction Changed
2015-03-16 22:46:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dhillon, Simmi Saminder Kaur

Jensen, Leon

Sangster, Margot

Southern, Lauren

Warawa, Mark


Population/populations
(2011 census)

103084


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2938365.82%
863719.35%
40098.98%
23455.25%
Other 2640.59%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Langley
   (197/210 polls, 93.37% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Mark Warawa
27752
8152
3725
2254
Other258


   Abbotsford
   (13/210 polls, 6.63% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Ed Fast
1631
485
284
91
Other6



 


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15 10 07 A.S.
99.233.125.239
With redistribution, Warawa took the safest option and opted eastward, i.e. into the Bible Belt and away from Surrey with all its hijabs and niqabs and what have you. Practical, huh? What pertains to Abbotsford pertains here as well.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.94
I can't see any leader visits or donation or volunteering into this one by any party at all. Conservative lock that threehundredeight.com has at 93% Conservative chance to win: just one point behind their 94% for Abbotsford.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
24.139.3.217
Along with Abbotsford, this is the safest Conservative seat in BC. It would have to take a Kim Campbell style blowout for them to lose here.
15 07 06 Dr Bear
67.55.6.212
Second safest Conservative riding in BC, after Abbotsford. The rest of the province is riding an orange wave at the moment, but this riding is going to buck any such trend.
15 03 22 Brian A
24.235.112.42
Take a drive through Walnut Grove, Fort Langley, Aldergrove...really anywhere in this riding on a sunny day and see all the beautiful new developments, the young families and old retirees, the lines upon lines of pickup trucks in the church parking lots on a Sunday. Now look up...do you see how blue the sky is? Well, this riding is even bluer than that!
15 03 16 JW
99.232.118.35
Heart of BC's bible belt. Would be apocalyptic (no pun intended) if the Conservatives lose this one.



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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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