Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

New Westminster-Burnaby

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:45:49

Constituency Profile


Brocki, Rex

Ellis, Chloé

Julian, Peter

Ramnarine, Sasha

Routledge, Kyle

Theriault, Joseph

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1770.43%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Burnaby-New Westminster
   (122/183 polls, 68.71% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Julian

   New Westminster-Coquitlam
   (61/183 polls, 31.29% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Fin Donnelly


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 07 A.S.
Now Peter Julian rules *all* of New Westminster. And on that note, if there happens to be but *one* Lower Mainland NDP survivor, it'll be him. (Not to mention a potential federal leadership contender in case Mulcair bombs his way out of office.)
15 05 18 Bill H
NDP activists and union executives within the PPWC are defending a Labour Relations Board decision that effectively denies millions in severance pay to its own members. Ironically, these NDP activists are supporting a foreign based $16billion company in its severance avoidance (Section 12 filing against the union for negotiating a closure agreement against workers' interests). Many of the almost 100 long-term workers were denied over $50K each in severance when the factory closed. The upcoming judicial review (September 2015) will appeal the LRB decision based on natural justice over the technical issues brought forward by the company and union. Peter Julian will have to explain why the NDP isn't supporting the workers but instead the integrity of suspect union decisions and a multi-billion dollar foreign corporation that is well-known to be anti-union (and defend the spending of membership's own union dues against their own interests). Will this issue be enough to topple the Julian/NDP strangle-hold on this working-class riding? Will this appearance of union executives having control over the NDP be an issue? Conservative candidate Ellis and other CPC activists, as well as provincial Liberal MLAs and even some unaffiliated union activists, are supporting the workers on this issue while the NDP continues to support the PPWC executives and the corporation RockTenn (now WestRock).
15 03 29 monkey
Of the Lower Mainland municipalities, New Westminster is without question the most solidly NDP so if you have all of it included in the riding, it means an NDP win even if they lose in the other parts.
15 03 28 Kegler
This riding is home to NDP house leader Peter Julian, who has been the MP of this riding since initially winning it in 2004. With each passing election his margin of victory over first the Liberals, then more recently the Conservatives has grown larger and larger. With the Conservatives Naming, (not electing or acclaiming but appointing) Chloe Ellis to be their candidate for the upcoming election this trend shows no signs of letting up. Ms. Ellis has zero footprint in the riding, her only political foray was running for Port Coquitlam city council in 2008 and failing to win, as a 19 year old. Her campaign is being chaired by Ryan Wawara.
Even with Ms. Ellis' experience with the University Member Parliament organization (UMP), between the lack of public knowledge of Ms. Ellis herself, as well as the continuing horrible performance of the Harper Conservative government on both the economic front (no budget) and the moral and ethical front (pursuing a war in a sovereign country as well as trying to pass repugnant legislation aimed at curtailing people's civil rights and liberties through scare tactics).... Ms Ellis is clearly just a sacrificial lamb being served up by a riding EDA that knows it can't win.
The Liberals and Greens have yet to nominate candidates but its widely known that they can't unseat the Julian Juggernaut. But don't expect the Julian Juggernaut to run like its in a heady position. Not by a long shot. It may not be the fireworks and back and forth that other ridings may provide during the campaign, but Julian isn't one to take his foot off the pedal not matter the situation.
15 03 22 Brian A
Even if the NDP was doing poorly in BC - which they're not - New West is as urban working-class as they come, and Burnaby has been ruled with an orange fist by the Corrigans for a while now. Top that off with the fact that Peter Julian is easily the best NDP MP in western Canada and has leadership qualities written all over him. NDP hold.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Burnaby is likely all solid NDP country. Unlike the east where the NDP has foolishly supported Energy East and alienated the native and activist base (which swung the NB election on the fracking issue), in the west, the NDP has been relatively solidly on the activist side.
Numbers like these are hard to overcome for any other Opposition party so the vote should consolidate, via informal or formal swaps, or via tactical hold-your-nose voting, behind the NDP here as in other Burnaby ridings.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster