Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

New Westminster-Coquitlam

Prediction Changed
2009-11-20 09:39:00

Constituency Profile


Dilworth, Diana

Donnelly, Fin

Helps, Rebecca

Lee, Ken Beck

Verrier, Roland

Fin Donnelly

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • new-westminster-coquitlam-burnaby (139/228 Polls)
  • port-moody-coquitlam-port-coquitlam (68/238 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 26 Mike R
    Predictions in this riding are complicated by the apparent collapse of the Liberal party in this neck of the woods. It seems they have abandoned anything but a pretence of running serious campaigns in any of the Burnaby, New Westminster or Coquitlam ridings - turning these into two-way races only. The outcome will really depend on where those loose Liberal votes go 0 and whether they are ‘blue’ or ‘progressive’ Liberals at heart.
    I don't, by the way, buy for a second the notion that Donnelly won any of the all-candidate ‘debates’ (they were joint press conferences, not debates. Diana Dilworth acquitted herself well at all of them and got the better of the press coverage coming out of them.
    This one is still up in the air, and will depend on the national swings in the last few days of the campaign.
    11 04 23 E WILLIS
    A clear winner in debates. This candidate is using social media and the youth vote. Will come in even stronger than in the byelection.
    11 04 17 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Diane's doing 10k a day? Good for her, she can market that as a new exercise program when this election is over. She won't be in Ottawa unless CPC numbers pick up in BC...a lot! The NDP are holding their own in BC (and elsewhere) and this hasn't been a close race for some time now. No reason to think it'll change.
    11 04 15 Mike R
    Diana Dilworth has been covering 10 k a day knocking on doors, and has and will be at every public event, including all scheduled all-candidate meetings. The notion that she is not visible or available is simply not born out by the facts. I agree Fin is an empty suit, as his voting record indicates.
    11 04 14 burlivespipe
    Donnelly is a bit of an empty shirt who should have joined the Dion Liberals. But his training as a councillor drew him into perpetual opposite bench material. This riding is typically a toss-up and when the Liberal vote collapses it leans left. Seven years ago Dave Haggard put in an impressive late charge and made it an interesting three-party race but its going to go to Donnelly -- Dilworth's no-show routine and no-comment act is reverberating around the community.
    11 04 13 Central Coquitlam
    This riding is TCTC. It's a 2 way race between Conservative Dilworth and NDP Donnelly. Donnelly has done little in his 18 months in Ottawa, missing his first votes in the house.
    He was successful in exploiting voter anger on the HST during the byelection, but BC voters will get their say on the HST in June, so I'm not sure that he's going to get traction there.
    Voters may want to get serious on crime with the Schoenborn case front and centre in the riding which Dilworth may benefit from.
    11 04 06 Austin Gatensbury
    I represent 3% of the electorate in this riding. We are the swing vote between Green and NDP. Personally, I couldn't support Dawn Black but happily switched for Fin Donnelly. Even if Donnelly lost all his swing Liberal votes, he is guaranteed to win with the swing Greens.
    Its a given that the Conservatives will do better than the byelection, but their support will likely return to the level they had in the last general election. Its the same Conservative candidate as in the byelection and she isn't really known outside of Port Moody. Same Liberal and Green too.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    The NDP won this narrowly last time around and by a somewhat larger margin in the by-election, still this will likely be a close election either way. The NDP is strong in New Westminster and to a lesser extent in the Port Moody portions while Coquitlam is split along an East/West split with the NDP doing well in the Western parts and Conservatives in the Eastern parts. The Liberals won't win this but could have an impact. In the past much of the Korean and Chinese community went Liberal, but the Tories have made strong inroads amongst both thus the better the Liberals do the less likely the Tories are to win this contrary to popular perception.
    11 04 01 Mike R
    The polls taken since the start of the election campaign show a consistent increase in Liberal party support, while Conservative support remains at generally the level of the last election. In this riding that means there is a likelihood that a significant percentage of voters who left the Liberals to support the NDP will return to their base. That won't be enough to give them a victory in this riding, given their generally third-place status, but it should be sufficient to allow Diana Dilworth to win.
    11 03 26 WAC
    This riding is TCTC in my opinion. The last three general elections have produced very close NDP-Conservative races. The recent polls in B.C. are very similar to what they were in 2004, 06, 08... I imagine this race will be within a few percentage points and could go either way - just as it has in 2004/06/08.
    09 11 14 A.S.
    Though I suppose Tory partisans would like to point out that CPC didn't lost *that* much ground over 2008, considering the HST issue and a clumsier ground campaign--indeed, the big losers were the Greens and arguably the Liberals as well (who slid in share despite a concerted bid for the ?Yonah Martin? Asian vote). Even so, I suspect that Fin Donnelly's got the goods to entrench himself, Peter Julian-style, rather than constantly watch his back, Bill Siksay-style--heck, given the geography, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be the indefatigable James Moore of the left...
    09 11 10 Gone Fishing
    Congratulations to the new MP for holding this seat for his party.
    Will this bring good fortune to the BC Dippers in the next General Election? Selling BC issues in a national campaign may come at the cost of gains elsewhere.
    Time will tell but it certainly puts them in good position to build. It's another possible game changer in that it's another place where people have chosen someone other than the Liberals to voice their opposition to the CPC. A national campaign will require more national and less provincial and regional focus but that said the red party is seemingly willing to stand aside to give the NDP room to grow.
    What's most significant is the NDP did not get caught napping and expanded it's support on a percentage basis at the expense of all the other parties including the Greens as well as the two mainstays.
    09 11 10 binriso
    A big win percentage-wise and doubling the margin of victory from the last election, this win should probably reassure NDPers that their low polling numbers arent as bad as they seem and should probably hold their BC seats, while possibly gaining one or two as well.

    By-election Prediction
    November 9, 2009
    New Westminster-Coquitlam

    09 11 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Highly doubt that this will get posted before the byelection results are announced but we wanted to get our two cents worth. NDP hold. The NDP candidate has hit some local issues square on the head (salmon, HST, etc)and this has stuck a chord with the voters. However the CPC should not be totally discounted. They've always had a strong showing here and (much like in the Nove Scotia byelection for the NDP) should the CPC take this riding in a squeeker we would not be flabbergasted but mildly surprised.
    09 11 07 Nick J Boragina
    I've run the math here using past elections and current polls as my base, and the NDP has a numerical advantage here that I just don't see the Tories overcoming; but I will say that the Tories will likely over-perform, so they could still take it away.
    09 11 01 Gone Fishing
    B.O. you are technically correct, and in actual fact you are absolutely correct in terms of popular support there was a small dip in 2006. This resulted in a loss of the seat for the new Conservative party. I was referring to number of votes not percentage vote but so much for splitting hairs right? Sorry for not being clear there and in fact I stand corrected.
    I still say this is too close to call but the conservatives have a shot as this was an Alliance riding during the Chretien years. However,
    as I went further back this was an Alliance/Reform seat since the movement began (1992 election)and was interestingly NDP BEFORE and during the Mulroney years.
    Basically this riding has not held a government seat since 1968 - OVER 40 years. And only in 2006 did it come close but rejected an incumbent to return the NDP to the seat.
    I guess my latest research comes with a head scratching WTF?
    Still I think this is a two horse race with recent Liberal failings. The choice is interesting. Do you vote for the conservative government or the NDP the party currently propping up the government?
    Logic would tell me that there is enough conservative strength to put them over the top but history as I've just reported seems to cast that in doubt. Logic also tells me that the conservative record (given national polling) is resisting blame for the economic woes so it might be time for NW-C to endorse a government for the first time in 40 years! However, logic doesn't win elections all the time.
    I still believe that this is winnable I guess another week and we'll all know.
    I'll say this without this win Jack Layton has some explaining to do to his party. Especially if it doesn't go to the conservatives.
    09 10 31 R.O.
    This is a fairly tough by-election to predict and i wouldn't at all be surprised to see a fairly close result here come election day as i don't see any one party pulling out in front here. and from what i've read or been able to about the race here its been fairly quiet so far and actually not alot of articles or much of anything have come out. but did do some research into the ridings history , which is pretty solid for the ndp minus 93-04 elections when Paul Forseth was mp so that works to Fin Donnelly's advantage. it also is an interesting riding in the sense it has rarely ever elected government mp's and the last time one came out of New Westminster was 1968 which is hard to believe. so that could prove to be an advantage for the opposition parties in the by-election. but i'm still not rulling out Diana Dilworth and the conservatives here , as they have alot of support in this riding and came pretty close to winning this seat last election . its also tough to say what Ken Beck Lee and the liberals will do here , i do not see him winning but when considering how low the liberal vote was here last time its more than likely the liberal % of the vote will go up if there focusing some effort here. but its all very tough to say and some voters may feel pressured to vote either ndp or conservative if they feel there the front runners.
    09 10 26 B.O.
    Gone Fishing's claim that the Conservatives increased support in this riding from 2004 to 2006 and from 2006 to 2008 is not technically true. I checked the election results for all 3 of those elections and I found that in the 2004 election the Conservative candidate got 32.9% of the vote. I found that then in the 2006 election the Conservative candidate got 32.5% of the vote. That means that Conservative support from 2004 to to 2006 actually went down in this riding. Of course Conservative support in this riding went up several points from 2006 to 2008 but then Conservative support went up from 2006 to 2008 in most ridings in all of Canada. These vote patterns in this riding show a somewhat strange pattern. In 2004 it seemed the Liberal vote cost the NDP the seat. Yet in 2008 it appears as though over half of the collapsed Liberal vote went to the Conservative candidate. It appears as though the second largest share of the collapsed Liberal vote went to the Green Party and then the smallest share of the collapsed Liberal vote went to the NDP. This despite the fact that in 2006 the Liberal vote declining several percentage points from 2004 appears to have given the seat to the NDP in 2006 with almost all of the declining Liberal vote in 2006 seeming to go to the NDP.
    Another interesting fact is that on election night 2004 this seat was the final seat in the country to determine an election night winner. On election night 2004 the NDP were leading in 23 seats at one point. It looked at that point as though the Liberals and NDP together would get a bare majority of seats. Then those 23 seats kept declining in number. Western Arctic flipped back to the Liberals from the NDP at the last minute, not affecting the combined Liberal-NDP seat total. But then at the same time 3 BC ridings flipped from NDP to Conservative denying the Liberals and NDP a combined majority. Southern Interior flipped from NDP to Conservative at the last minute. Vancouver Island North flipped from NDP to Conservative at the last minute. Then, in a heartbreaking moment for Liberal and NDP supporters, New Westminster-Coquitlam flipped from NDP to Conservative at the last minute. New Westminster-Coquitlam was the final seat in all of Canada to flip on election night and this flip denied the Liberals and NDP a combined majority which reduced the probability of a stable minority parliament. Had New Westminster-Coquitlam not flipped to the Conservatives from the NDP on election night 2004 Chuck Cadman's vote ultimately would not have been needed for that famous 2005 budget vote. Then ironically New Westminster-Coquitlam flipped to the NDP in the 2006 election but at a time when this could not give the Liberals and NDP a combined majority anymore.
    In this by-election I have heard that the Liberals are running an actual campaign in an attempt to win. It is not entirely clear what a stronger Liberal showing would do because my illustration above of vote patterns in this riding make it unpredictable where increased Liberal votes would come from. I'd say a Liberal win in this riding is unlikely. But I'd also say considering how much previous Liberal support went Conservative in 2008, an increased Liberal vote would give the NDP a decent shot at winning.
    09 10 06 Gone Fishing
    1400 vote differential and the Conservatives have increased support from 2004 to 2006 and 2006 to 2008. It's only 7 votes per poll to make up and momentum seems to be on the conservative side with recent polling.
    I don't see this riding as traditionally NDP not when it's predecessor was CA in 2000 and all parties have had periods of strong support.
    Nick Boragina refers to moderate Alliance candidates and some of us would argue that the country looks at the conservatives as moderate now that they are in office. That is why I believe the nation is telling pollsters they are more comfortable with them.
    Still too early to tell but the Tories could be looking at a pickup here. In a lot of by-elections you vote for or against the government. In this case you have the choice of voting for the government or for the party now propping up the government or finally for the party that used to prop up the government. If that question burns true I think you lose very little of your core Conservative vote and cherry pick enough from the other two to squeak by.
    Now if one of the two councillors is viewed as stronger by the riding's voters (don't live in the riding so I have no comment on that) that could be another issue altogether because often when you don't make a by-election decision based on the government you get down to who is the best candidate, most identified with etc. That was the case in London Fanshawe in 2007 when Liberal fortunes were lower and I think it could be the deciding factor if the verdict on the government is mixed.
    Finally someone local can speak to who has the better team on the ground because by elections are also about getting the vote out.
    09 10 06 R.O.
    not alot has been said here so far but now that we officially have a date for the by-election that being november 9. i figued i'd update my prediction for the riding. still think that the seat is in play and the ndp has got a challenge on its hands if there to try and hold the seat. its tough to say if there push against the HST will be enough of an issue in the riding to keep it ndp. the conservatives have a chance here as well , as this is a seat the party once held before and there leading the polls in british columbia. and even when they did not win this seat in 06 and 08 they maintained a strong presence in the riding and came a close second. there new candidate Donna Dilworth definity has a shot here but its tough to say how this by-election is going to turn out yet and conservatives are trying to keep expectations low. the liberals who are polling second in many bc polls likely don't have enough support to win this riding but will still be competitive and be very interesting to see if the riding returns to a 3 way race like it was in 04 and 06 elections. if it stays only a 2 way race between the ndp and conservatives that is a bad sign for the liberals.
    09 10 06 Acadien
    The dippers have the advantage of having held the seat for awhile. They also have the HST issue which if it gains traction, may be enough to hold the riding handily.
    09 10 06 Top Can Inc.
    I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Conservative pickup. This seat is really only a two way battle between the NDP and the Tories, with the Liberals playing the spoiler. With Vancouver 2010 coming up, the voters may feel more positive towards the current government's handling of the economy and the preparations of the Olympics. The NDP may counter with the HST issue, but since the tax hasn't really come into effect yet, people haven't seen whatever negative implications the tax may bring. So I predict the Tories winning by about 1000 votes or less.
    09 09 28 Nick J Boragina
    This is info submitted regarding a possible by-election in the riding, should the Federal election not take place...
    New Westminster?Coquitlam
    This BC riding will be the one requiring a By-Election soonest. Dawn Black of the NDP quit to run provincially, and was elected as a BC NDP MLA. This is a swing riding in ways. In 2008, the NDP managed 41.8%, while the Tories took 38.8%. In 2006 the NDP managed 38.3% while the Tories had 32.5%. It was in 2004 that we saw the Tories with 32.9% and the NDP with 32.6%. It is, it seems, the drop in the Liberal vote that has allowed the Tories and the NDP to fight it out. Going back further, we get more results. I note, however, that especially in BC, these results should be treated with Caution. Many who were populist but moderate voted for the Reform-Alliance, and it was from BC where many Alliance moderates (such as current Liberal MP Keith Martin) came from. I will, however, note the results. In 2000, the Alliance won 44% of the vote, compared to the Liberals 31% and NDPs 15%. 1997 saw Reform win with 34% beating the NDP at 30%. Of note, the NDP Candidate in this election, Dawn Black. The Liberals took 29% here. The 1993 election was a close contest between Reform, the Liberals, and the NDP. 1988, however was a clear win for the NDP, again, with Dawn Black. This riding is clearly a toss up between the NDP and the Tories. Looking at current BC polls, and reading the tea leaves, I would give the Tories an edge here.
    09 08 31 binriso
    The NDP should win here since they have a stronger candidate and the seat was still won by 1500 votes or so last time. Interestingly the Liberals might do quite well and surprise everyone considering they’ve done fairly well other than 2008. Probably not enough to win but you never know.
    09 08 26 DL
    The NDP will win here. The held on by almost 2,000 votes last time when the Tory vote across BC was at an all-time high of 44% and with the Liberal in the riding vanishing into single digits and most of their vote going Tory. The Tories will almost certainly lose ground in BC compared to last time and the new NDP candidate Fin Donnelly is well known as a city councillor, marathon swimmer and environmental activist. Dawn Black was popular, but she was no ‘super nova’ - she won because its a traditionally NDP area.
    09 08 24 R.O.
    As with the other vacant ridings the question of if there is going to be a by-election or not hangs over any solid prediction on who might win this riding. i think the ndp are in trouble without Dawn Black as there candidate but they still have an ok candidate lined up that being a local city councillor but still he isn't as high profile as Dawn Black was. The liberals have a new candidate but i still see them finishing where they were last time but somewhat stronger vote total . The conservatives have also found a city councillor to be there candidate that being Donna Dilworth who is somewhat of a similar candidate to previous one Yohan Martin . but honestly its still to early to say for sure what might happen here and if a by-election will ever take place here or not , i had originally though there'd be one for sure but now its turned into a waiting game as to whats going to take place so i'd say too close for now as well.
    09 08 23 Observer
    The by-election will be extremely close between NDP and the Conservatives since Dawn Black is not going to be a candidate again. I don't dare to predict a result right now.

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