Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Skeena-Bulkley Valley

Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Cullen, Nathan

Layton, Brad

Nesbitt, Tyler

Parnell, Jeannie

Spratt, Don

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 12083.41%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Skeena-Bulkley Valley
   (221/225 polls, 99.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Nathan Cullen

   Cariboo-Prince George
   (4/225 polls, 0.65% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Richard Harris


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15 10 14 poljunkiebc
Cullen is almost certain to win here, having high name recognition and being a very active and involved MP. The LPC has not been a factor here for decades, but even their surge may be a felt a tiny bit, which may eat into NDP and CPC votes. I don't expect Cullen to get over 60% as some projections are stating, but should get 45-55.
15 10 07 A.S.
The irony of Nathan Cullen is that for all his leadership-bid strategic-voting rhetoric, he's been perfectly capable of winning his seat over and over (apparently) independent of any need to self-consciously force the 'strategic' card. Which is how elections have *always* been won--hard work and projected competence, not the artifice of shotgun political marriage...
15 07 26 R.O.
Nathan Cullen seems to be a well-liked mp and has a solid hold on this riding even though it was a riding that had been reform /alliance right of centre area before he got elected in 2004. Conservatives will remain his main competitors here but are still a ways back .
15 04 01 Dr. Bear
Both the NDP and Nathan Cullen are popular here. The CPC have presence in part of the riding but not enough to overcome the personal appeal of the incumbent. NDP hold.
15 03 29 monkey
The inland areas are somewhat competitive under normal grounds but the coastal areas and Indian Reserves vote solidly NDP. Never mind Nathan Cullen is extremely popular so as long is he is MP the NDP will have no trouble winning this. Even if he didn't run it would probably stay NDP, but it would at least tighten up a bit.
15 03 20 Fairview Resident
Nathan Cullen placed a strong third in the leadership race and has been very visible on the pipelines issue. With Libby Davies retiring in Vancouver East, this is now the safest NDP seat in BC.

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