|Nicholls has incumbency advantage and this is the best PC campaign since 1999, this one will go right down the wire, but I believe Nicholls will prevail, may be by less than 300 votes|
|The latest IPSOS poll has the NDP leading with 43% support, followed by the Conservatives with 35%, and the Liberals trailing far behind with 15% in the Southwestern region. If that level of support continues through to election day, this riding should see a New Democrat elected on June 7th.|
|This is turning into a close two-way race in this interesting rural/industrial riding. It's definitely not going to be easy, but I think the NDP can win it. They'll need big numbers in Leamington and a better result in Chatham than they got in 2014, but that's doable provided that 2014 Liberal voters move to the NDP instead of the Tories. It'll be tight - I think both parties will be over 40% while the Liberals are basically wiped out - but I think the NDP should be favoured.|
|Although this riding is typically considered a rural one, 80 percent of the population lives in its two major cities. Having a candidate from a local John Deere dealership should help win over the rural part of this riding in addition to the major advantages of the urban parts - where the sign war has a clear leader in McGrail.|
|A 'universal swing' model for SW Ontario would suggest this is an NDP pickup. However though the NDP is poised to dominate the largest cities and drive out the Liberals (they're at 54% in K-W, London and Windsor according to Abacus), the PCs are up about 10 points from Hudak '14 in 'other communities.' So the impact on the NDP surge in terms of defeating PC MPPs may be minimal. Ford has populist appeal that Hudak lacked, so unless the NDP dominates the 'but Hudak went too far' constituency and none of it goes back to the PCs, I think the PCs will take this. So I'd be cautious about 'Andrea the real populist beats Ford the fake populist' scenarios, though I wouldn't rule an NDP victory out.|
|McGrail's a dynamo - head and shoulders above the last NDP candidate, and he managed 30-plus percent despite his anonymity. I had originally submitted that this was a PC lock - I think they'll keep it, but McGrail plus some NDP momentum might just knock off enough voters in Leamington and Chatham to make it tight.|
|With the polls showing an NDP surge in southwestern Ontario and a Liberal collapse, there is a pretty good chance this will end up in an NDP win.|
|The NDP have a good lead in SW Ontario and will flip this seat|
|The NDP will win for a variety of reasons. The NDP are surging in SW Ontario,with the Liberal vote imploding, most of which will go to the NDP. I anticipate the Liberal vote will be in the single digits here and Wynne will not even campaign south of London. The minor redistribution from Essex riding that benefits the NDP. The unpopularity of of PC MPP Rick Nicholls, being seen as somewhat out of touch and extreme after publicly stating he doesn't believe in evolution, supporting Brown during the sexual harassment allegations, etc. The Wind turbine issue, which got Nicholls re-eleced has somewhat died down in the last 4 years. The growing working class Hispanic population in Leamington will also play a role likely.|
|No doubt CKL will be the toughest in the Essex region for the NDP to pick up, but I'm prepared to say that the trend definitely favours a sweep. Jordan MacGrail is running a hard campaign and with the Liberal vote collapsing, I see this as a pickup for the NDP|
|This is a cautious call for the PC's but in an election that's being decided by a deeply dissatisfied electorate, the 'incumbent' PC's have to be the *likeliest* to benefit from the overall swing away from the Liberals. The NDP are a serious threat and an NDP win is possible, but to assume that outcome is to look past the slightly better possibility that the PC's take it. Given the rural parts of the riding, there is a good chance that the NDP already hit their ceiling here in 2014. 80% chance of a PC win, 20% chance of an NDP win, no chance of a Liberal win.|
|This is a two horse race between the PC and NDP. the Natyshak effect on vote redistribution helps make the race closer, but only marginally as NDP support in western kent was near 40 percent vs the 60 percent in the former essex riding in 2014. Whomever capitalizes on the imploding liberals -|
wins this seat. TCTC.
|I don't know what 'politically diverse' means other than all three parties having a history and/or a shot here--and in this cycle, you can probably scratch the once-regnant Liberals; for the NDP to land a strong second here in 2014 certainly surprised a few, particularly as they managed to do what they couldn't do even in 1990--win Leamington. Though the tightening of the margin through redistribution is a bit of a Natyshak-wave artifice--on the other hand, let's not project too much of Rick Nicholls' creationist social conservativism upon the electorate; unlike LKM next door, it's still more of a Rust Belt than Farm/Bible Belt sort of seat, it's not erstwhile double-digit FCP, et al. Which is why, picking up from 2014, it remains an archetypal Horwath target--but when the PCs are leading in the polls the way they have been, well, incumbent advantage by default. Opponents: just don't let yourself feel no-hope defeated when Nicholls spouts off against evolution, et al. Voters have their own broader reasons to support him (or not).|
|Like southwestern & northern Ontario ridings,and other ridings around London, I see this going NDP this time.|
|Southwestern Ontario is the province's most politically diverse region; Chatham-Kent-Leamington is probably Southwestern Ontario's most politically diverse riding.|
You'll have a better chance at guessing which raindrop will reach the bottom of a window than you will this riding's winner.
|Tory hold. This is a mostly rural and working class riding, and support for Ford should be healthy here.|
|Chatham-Kent-Leamington is both 'rust belt-y' and pretty socially conservative (Rick Nicholls is a social conservative and this has one of the highest percentages of evangelicals in the province). The PCs held on during the Hudak debacle (who almost certainly took the Tories to their lowest share of the vote among union members in history), I expect Doug Ford to do better.|
|Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, PC would likely have held on to this seat with ease. With the PC in implosion mode and Nicholls foolishly trying to defend Brown initially, anti-government votes will likely consolidate behind the NDP. Given the NDP strength in this area, would not be surprised if they pick this one up.|
|We can agree on one thing: despite its long history with the Liberals, this seat is certainly not going red this time around. They are practically irrelevant in the deep southwest due to their urban-oriented policies and wind turbine issues. Conventional wisdom would be to say the PC's should win here easily, but I would be cautious for a few reasons.|
First, the opposition should be united behind the NDP, and although the effective result in 2014 was inflated by the transposition from Essex, it means they certainly aren't out of it.
Second, the bulk of Conservative voters here are socially conservative and populist. Knowing those views don't fly in the GTA, Brown has gone head over heels to erase those views - and that could keep the base at home (or perhaps to Trillium in protest). They could be a potential spoiler at the minimum. Those are key votes lost. If Monte McNaughton was leader, this seat would probably be safe for the PC's.
Third, Horwath (at least in 2014) made a strong effort to gain blue-collar votes, with some success. If she replicates that, this seat may be one of the surprises on E-Day. Otherwise, the PC's should probably win.
|After the transposition, the NDP is only 4.3% behind here, this is anything but a sure thing|
|Funnily, I would argue that this riding is TCTC. In the 2014 election the NDP were only about six points behind the PC (37.8% vs 31.1%). However, the Liberals got 24.4% of the vote. If the Liberals do tank, and that support goes to the NDP, that could be enough for team orange to pick up this riding. I expect the NDP to be targeting this seat.|
|Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.|