Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Ottawa West-Nepean

Prediction Changed
2018-05-31 00:53:00

Constituency Profile









    Ottawa West-Nepean
   Hon Bob Chiarelli

   (99.62% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Ottawa Centre
   Hon Yasir Naqvi

   (0.38% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):111881

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

21035 44.84%
15895 33.89%
6760 14.41%
2899 6.18%
OTHERS 318 0.68%
Total Transposed 46907

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Ottawa West-Nepean

Total Transposed46907

Federal Election Result (2015):

Anita Vandenbeld
Abdul Abdi
Marlene Rivier
Mark Brooks
Rod Taylor
Sam Heaton


04/06/2018 PB
Yes, probably PC. But driving around today, I saw a lot of orange where once there was red. I would not be shocked if this went NDP. Not sure they have the ground game for it, though.
01/06/2018 Innocent bystander
Too close to call, but not Liberal. Next week there will be a long list of veteran Liberals who stayed an election too long, and finished third; and Chiarelli will be on it.
31/05/2018 Prussian Paradigm
With the demographics in this constituency being heavy with seniors, and a fractured PC nomination process leading up to the campaign, Chiarelli's familiarity to the locals will see him through here. The timely and safe completion of Light Rail Transit (LRT) hinges on a Chiarelli win, and this is not lost on the voters here.
5/28/2018 Educated voter
Now the final debate has happened, more people are attracted to the Liberals then the Conservatives and NDP in this riding. This riding is a swing riding between Conservatives and Liberals. So many people are worried about the possible cuts to healthcare, education, environment, and the last thing they want in here is some guy playing the provincial role of john baird the second.
Honestly, no orange wave here. If Liberals dont win this time around, it will only be a win for the conservatives by a slim margin of votes.
Although, I think the Liberals will somehow hold onto this riding. So many people have liberal lawn signs up this time around , so there is a red wave here.
26/05/2018 Marco Ricci
It's surprising that Bob Chiarelli is running again because I thought he said in the last election that he would be retiring after this term.
In any event, I think this riding is probably leaning towards the Conservatives this time. Chiarelli has been underestimated in the past and defeated a strong challenge from Randall Denley, so it's possible he could pull it out again, but this year the headwinds may be too strong for Bob C. to survive.
15/05/2018 Educated voter
Sadly, I think with the NDP vote being so high in the polls, and the greens being nowhere in sight in Ottawa west nepean , this will cause the vote to split, and I think Conservatives are going to win in Ottawa West Nepean.
I just hope Jeremy Roberts is not like John Baird because we cant have an MPP bullying our communities, and making threat to people who have a different viewpoint. No partisan hiring when it comes to peoples job situations.
14/05/2018 GritBusters
It'll be close, but Chiarelli won't survive the tide.
In the NCR, the Liberals will lose Ottawa-Centre to the NDP and everything else that they have other than Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa-South to the PCs.
Hell, without the McGuinty Mafia around, Ottawa-South could even turn into a three-way race the way things are going for the Grits.
I dislike both Ford and the PCs, but I won't be sad to see ridings like Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell turn Blue as a side-effect of the looming Orange wave.
06/05/2018 Dennis Thivierge
I have been following the candidates in this riding and so far I have to say that Jeremy Roberts has been the hardest working guy! He is knocking at doors and has a strong youth component plus he is very articulate and resonates well with residents in the riding. Right now Mrs. Wynnes name is turning a lot of voters off. I expect this negative response to the liberals will continue right up to Election Day. However I do expect Jeremy to come out ahead of Chiarelli on June 7th. - a huge electoral defeat! People want change and they will get it with bright lights like Jeremy Roberts!
10/05/2018 ungovernable
Two points:
1) Bob Chiarelli may be something of a political institution in Ottawa, but that's not so much of an asset when your most salient political role is as minister for what is now the least popular government since Rae Days. Further, I'm not convinced that 'familiar, ordinary, lifelong politician' is as appealing of a political archetype as it might have been in another time - particularly in a city of geographically-mobile young professionals - and that there won't be a 'the bigger they come, the harder they fall' moment in this fairly reliable bellwether riding.
2) The federal Liberal vote in Ottawa stayed remarkably resilient in the 2011 collapse, but that was in tandem with an eight-point drop in support nationally. The Liberals could be facing a drop of 15 points or more province-wide in this election. Unless Doug Ford campaigns on burning Ottawa to the ground, there's no reason to think that the math won't take over and deliver this seat to the Conservatives. Doug Ford may be surly, and this seat may be in may be Ottawa, but Ottawa West isn't the Glebe.
09/05/2018 Educated voter
I think people have forgotten the city of ottawa passed a rent control expansion bill recently at a City council Committee meeting.
People who rent apartments want rent control, and there are far too many people on the waiting lists for affordable housing, etc
The whole time john Baird was in office, he bullied our communities when he was not supposed to, and he cut off funds for social housing , womens shelters, and he insulted so many people. I was even told by cancer patient that he was bullied by Conservatives. This is not what we want from any politician.
People wont elect a politician who wear a fake smile, then turns around cuts jobs, puts people on EI and then into poverty, makes low - income- middle class pay more personal taxes, and then the firms make all this money and pay people low wages.
Most people I talk to dont like John Baird. So using his name and tactics wont help you because things have changed since he was in office.
I still see the Liberals winning this race by a close margin of votes.
08/05/2018 Innocent bystander
It's not how you feel: eventually you have to face the math. The PCs lead the Liberals by 21 points in Ottawa (49 - 28 - 20), and a lot of the Liberal votes will be wasted running up a massive majority in Vanier
09/05/2018 Christopher L
This will be a tough, hard fought race, but I feel it's a likely PC pick up if they end up with a majority at the end of the night. Though if provincial polls tighten over the course of the writ period I might change my prediction. Bob Chiarelli's personal popularity is fairly limited, and if John Baird could win this seat in 2006 and 2008, it's certainly within the grasp of a provincial Tory party that's 15 points ahead province wide.
07/05/2018 Educated voter
I agree in the suburbs around Merivale road,Carling avenue, where people live in homes, it is middle class .Keep in mind, some families have a heavy house hold debt they are trying to pay off.
Although, in Lincoln fields, Britannia, Bayshore, and even some areas on Pinecrest, Greenbank, some people are struggling financially.They rent out apartments and they need rent control. They cannot afford to have their rent going up every 6 months.
In Ottawa, the Britannia, Winthrop court area, there is poor people who live in Ottawa Community housing, and low rental town homes, and apartments.
To be honest, over the years,Britannia & Winthrop avenue area had to wait 10 years in order to solve some of the issues out with the affordable housing.
When I say poor people, I am referring to the people who live in the ottawa Community housing units, and the low rental apartments on Britannia drive.
I dont think people are aware of what is happening in Lincoln fields, britannia, and bayshore area because most people I talk to are struggling financially. Some people are even on the pension,disability, or they are on some kind of social assistance program.
Some people are struggling to pay rent, and they need rent control, or they are on the waiting list for a social housing unit.
When I say poor people, I am referring to the people who live in Britannia Apartments, winthrop Court, and other Ottawa community Social housing, an d low rentals.
I think people forgot about Britannia, Lincoln fields, Bayshore.
On top of this , we have immigration issues, on top of the social housing issues.On top of this, there is a lack of good paying jobs for people, lack of festivals, lack of health services.
Did you know in Britannia, Lincoln Fields area there is no health clinic? Seriously , when people need to go to a health clinic they have to go further down Carling Avenue. We used to have 2,3 health clinics, but they all relocated for some reason. We have dental clinics, but no health clinics, or labs. Same time, we have all these older people looking for healthcare services, and affordable medication.
If you ask me, in Britannia, bayshore, Lincoln fields are is more of a race between the ndp vs liberals.
Whereas on Merivale rd, pinecrest, greenbank it is more of a race between conservatives and the liberals.
So therefore, I have a feeling the liberals will win the seat through a close race.
05/05/2018 A.S.
Re 'Educated voter': how is OW-N a 'very poor' riding? Not to diminish the poverty issue, but I think of it as more of an Etobicoke Centre than Etobicoke North sort of place, i.e. it may have its nodes of impoverishment, but the general tenor is that of a middle-centric mix. Otherwise, John Baird never would have been elected federally; nor would the 20% mark consistently elude the NDP even at the best of times. In fact, it may be argued that if it were so poor, that'd place it even *more* on the DoFo Tory radar (again, cf Etobicoke North). Chiarelli's vulnerable, no doubt; what remains to be seen is whether the anecdotal notion of the Ottawa area being more resistant to the Tory wave than the norm comes to pass (a little like how federal Grit shares hereabouts remained remarkably stable even amidst the 2011 Iggy disaster)
04/05/2018 Times are a changing
Ottawa West is a poor riding? I think you better check the Census. It is a middle class riding that has one of the highest population of Seniors I the City of Ottawa. It does have four social housing developments but that is a very small section of the voting populace.
01/05/2018 Educated voter
In this riding of Ottawa West nepean,there has been a lot of people talking about the first Conservative Nomination meeting that was held last year. From the Ottawa Citizen article I read,the former Candidate is now in the courts with some of the Conservatives. Since the Conservatives changed party Leaders and some of their platform,and now want to build all these real estate developments on the green space in the greenbelt, some of the Soft Centre Conservatives are now supporting the Green Party, liberal,or NDP. This is a very poor riding, and the need for social housing, mental health, women Support groups,better paying jobs are very high.They all took cuts when the last federal conservative govt was in office,and many people suffered and some people are still affected from these cuts. Yes, the current govt brought in some social housing, but some people feel it is not enough to get people off the waiting lists. On top of all this, the people who rent apartments need rent control. So even though Bob Chairelli may have made mistakes on the energy file,he still managed to get social housing and other services we need in this riding. He is still well liked by many people in the community and the business community. It will be close, but I think Bob Chairelli will win because he knows the people in the riding, and he knows how to run a good campaign, and he is a hard worker.
20/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberal's bounce in support after the budget has turned into a rout - a ten point lead over the NDP for second in the regional polls has become a five point deficit.
Doug Ford hasn't cost the Tories any support in Eastern Ontario, and the NDP start too far behind to overtake the Liberals and the PCs here.
19/04/2018 Careful Observer
This will be a close riding but I see a PC pickup here. As others have mentioned, Bob Chiarelli is a well known figure here for good and bad reasons. Jeremy Roberts is a young and hardworking candidate that has been getting a lot of attention. The NDP has never really been a big factor here, but if they do well provincially they should take some votes away from Bob.
In any case, this riding was close the last few cycles and has been held by provincial and federal conservatives in the recent past. With province-wide and Eastern Ontario polls being what they are, this is the type of riding the PCs could expect to pick up in a wave regardless of what happens on the ground.
17/04/2018 Times are a changing
Bob Chiarelli is a institution in Ottawa Politics. His name recognition is excellent but his record as a Senior Liberal Cabinet Minister responsible for the Energy file will hurt him.

Jeremy Roberts is a bright articulate candidate who has fought to secure the nomination despite the former leader's well publicized efforts to rig the nomination battle. This riding has been ripped apart because of the nomination battle and the failure by the party to deal with a legitimate nomination appeal. This has made the already tough job of beating a Ottawa Political Icon even tougher.
Honesty, Integrity and Principals of Democracy prevailed.
Jeremy has put together a strong team and the party has made this a target seat on their path to a strong, stable majority PC Government.
Christine Elliott would have been a easier sell to this ridings populace but I believe this riding will go PC by a razor thin margin.
This could be the upset special of the election night.
16/03/2018 Craig
Ottawa is one place that Doug Ford is a significant liability, and the leadership results should keep this seat in Liberal hands. Despite his many scandals while in the energy portfolio, Bob Chiarelli remains quite popular here, while at the same time the main demographics here are highly educated and more affluent (with a few exceptions).
He greatly increased his margin over 2011, likely on the LRT and job cuts issues, and despite the fact the PC's will probably target this seat, I can't see it flipping and in fact the margin may open up even more. Federal civil servants may not be as numerous as in other ridings in the area, but they are definitely present here, and certainly won't be comfortable with Ford. Like in most of eastern Ontario, the NDP are also irrelevant.
12/03/2018 MF
Yeah, I know the Liberal polling numbers are dreadful at the moment. But a party led by Doug Ford prevail in this Ottawa riding.
26/02/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
Bob Chiarelli lives and breathes Ottawa politics and still has lots of initiative and energy left. He's been around for a long time.. He was Mayor, Regional Chair, and has served in cabinet. He was very close to Dalton McGuinty. and he has a strong local machine working on his behalf.That level of intuition, organization, experience, and skill means a lot.
I doubt he will lose this seat. As much as the macro situation lends itself to a PC pickup here, I suspect Bob will narrowly eke it out. He's been through the ups and downs of politics before.
For the PCs to win they will need a combo of a good leader, solid campaign execution, and a dynamic local showing. Their candidate is young and energetic - but will need to pound the pavement hard to win. It is possible, but I suspect Kathleen Wynne and the government's longevity will lose Bob his seat more than he himself IF that happens.
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
With all due respect to some of the other posts here, the by-election results are borderline meaningless, given the huge differences in turnout that generally happen and the different dynamics surrounding those elections.
With the incumbent returning and the actual electoral history of this region, the Liberals have a pretty strong chance at holding this one.
04/01/2018 seasaw
Bob Chiarelli is running again, and he's going to win again. Sure, we all know that the PC's would like to win this and many other ridings and they will do what they can, but their best would be giving Bob a good run for his money and that means a relatively close win for Bob, but nevertheless a win. Liberal hold
2017-12-23 R.O.
Its true Bob Chiarelli won by a large margin in 2014 but if you look at his other 2 most recent elections , 2011 and 2010 by election. This riding was actually pretty close and he only won by small margins those years. so realistically this riding is likely to be close again.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
The Liberals have a chance if 76-year-old Bob Chiarelli doesn't retire, and are probably toast if he does.

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