Election Prediction Project

St. John's East
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:05

Constituency Profile


Harris, Jack

Peters, David

Wall, Joedy

Whalen, Nick


Nick Whalen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



328.15 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nick Whalen 2097446.70%
Jack Harris ** 2032845.30%
Deanne Stapleton 29386.50%
David Anthony Peters 5001.10%
Sean Burton 1400.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. John's East
   (95.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (4.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 PFlannigan
I really think Nick has done a decent job getting programs and money for the riding and electors will remember that.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Bit surprised Harris would run again. Still he probably reclaims this riding. Nick Whalen, the incumbent MP is a nice guy but seems to be over his head in certain aspects.
15/10/19 S.J.
When Jack Harris ran here in 2008, he got nearly 75% of the vote, an increase of 57 percentage points from 2006. Yes he lost it in 2015, but very narrowly, in a wave election. Riding polls are showing a tight race between the Liberals and NDP here, but on election day, the personal popularity of Jack combined with an NDP surge should deliver it to the NDP.
15/10/19 R.O.
A mainstreet poll indicates this riding is a close race between liberal mp Nick Whalen and former ndp mp Jack Harris .
Liberal incumbents in tight races in St. John’s East, Fredericton: Mainstreet polls,By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 15, 2019 12:00am
13/10/19 The Jackal
With the NDP rising in the polls I think it is safe to say Jack Harris will win this riding
12/10/19 Bo
The NDP is rising in the polls, both nationally and in Atlantic Canada. Their chances are further bolstered in St. John's East by the fact that Jack Harris is running again to reclaim his old seat for the NDP.
11/10/19 Physastr Master
According to the latest preferred PM polling, Jagmeet Singh is tied with Trudeau for preferred PM in Atlantic Canada. The regional polling for vote intentions remains much less competitive, but with numbers like that this riding is definitely a lock.
28/09/19 Eddie E.
lf it was anyone but Harris, the unremarkable Whelan might have sleepwalked into a second term, but Harris barely lost to Whelan last time when Libs were riding high. On the other hand, Harris might have won this easily but for an imploding NDP campaign that does him no favours. lt will be close, but at the end of the day l don't think Jagmeet and the poor NDP national campaign will end up hurting Harris as much here as elsewhere. Politics in Newfoundland is personal, and Harris will squeak through on his personal popularity despite the NDP, providing them with a rare gain on the night.
27/09/19 AR
The provincial NDP were a disorganized and inept mess in the last provincial election and they still miraculously won 3 seats from only 14 candidates (out of a possible 40 that could have run!!!) The Greens and Conservatives can't seem to gain much traction in NFLD. So with the federal NDP more organized and Jagmeet Singh picking up a little momentum, this will be one of the few pickups on election night for the NDP especially with a strong candidate like Jack Harris.
01/09/19 Marco Ricci
New polling this week from Narrative Research and Leger for Atlantic Canada both show the NDP behind the Greens in the Atlantic region. The NDP numbers appear to be holding up better in Newfoundland, and Jack Harris does have name recognition from his previous time in office. We'll have to wait and see whether that is enough to win back the seat as the Election Day grows closer.
25/08/20 A.S.
Jagmeet Singh as a native son of sorts *might* help in an ace-up-the-sleeve way--then again, Maritime roots didn't make Elizabeth May's Central Nova bid in 2008 seem any less arbitrary. And it doesn't hurt that the provincial NDP overachieved in the face of limited means and an overall bleak picture for the party brand in Eastern Canada. But said bleak picture so far persists federally, so that this remains more like a last-ditch bid for a toehold than a certain takeback--though the idiosyncracy of Newfoundland's hyperlocal political climate is such that it benefits NDP-type supertargeting. (Or at least, when said supertargeting fails, it's with less embarrassment than might be the case elsewhere.)
12/07/19 seasaw
The last time this was close, and Jack Harris is popular here, but with NDP polling at an all time low, in Atlantic Canada, that is, it would be very difficult for even someone like Jack Harris to win. Liberal hold.
10/07/19 Kumar Patel
I'm predicting this will be the NDP's sole pick up in Atlantic Canada.
The Green surge in Atlantic Canada is mostly in PEI and NB.
Jack Harris is popular and the provincial NDP did well in this area. Jagmeet Singh growing up in St. John's shouldn't hurt the cause either.
05/06/19 Marco Ricci
It has been confirmed by the Newfoundland media that Jack Harris will be making a comeback and he is expected to be nominated this month. However, the one wrinkle for Harris is that the new CRA poll for the Atlantic shows the NDP falling to 4th place behind the Greens. This could make a comeback more challenging, but it's early days yet.
31/05/19 Sam
Whilst a landslide like he had in 2008 or 2011 seems out of reach, Jack Harris' candidacy should bring this back in to the Dipper column. With the Liberals declining even in NL, particularly with a MP who has a limited local popularity in Nick Whalen, the circumstances are ripe for an NDP gain. Despite a lack of resources for the NDP, last time they invested nothing in St. John's East and campaigned exclusively for Ryan Cleary next door; that won't happen again. Provincial results in NL clearly don't translate into federal results, but the NDP still did well in St. John's and it is a good indicator. Aside from the unique indicators here, even on a uniform swing in Atlantic Canada, this should be an easy gain for the NDP, and one of only a handful of target seats that they're highly likely to gain. All things being equal, the NDP should win with perhaps a slight increase in their vote share, with the Liberals in decline.
27/05/19 Ontario Voter
Jack Harris is running here again and so this should be an easy NDP pickup since the liberals are no longer riding a wave against an incumbent conservative government. Despite overwhelmingly winning Atlantic Canada last time around the liberals won this very narrowly and Jack Harris lost by the smallest margin of any NDP incumbent in Atlantic Canada. The NDP also easily held the their two provincial seats within the boundary of this riding in the provincial election. I expect this to go back to the NDP.
27/05/19 odude22
Jack Harris confirmed this morning that he will be running in St. John’s East. This riding just became a landslide victory for the NDP.
27/04/19 The Jackal
While this may be an NDP target Singh has not gained any real support in Atlantic Canada. The Rock is scorched earth for the CPC thanks to Danny Williams' ABC campaign a de are ago. Looks for the Liberals to win this with a higher margin than last time.
27/04/19 Sam
If Jack Harris runs then I do think this will certainly go NDP, as he has the recognition and the momentum, and will get lots of local support. But we don't know if he is, and if he isn't it's still a good shot for them. Whether Jagmeet Singh can capitalise on his local connection is one thing, but he might have to do little for the NDP to win here. Singh should do better here than elsewhere. Nick Whalen has been a pretty low-quality MP, and the Trudeau brand is declining in the Atlantics - UNS projections have the NDP winning here, sometimes quite comfortably. We'll have to see what happens in the future, but the NDP have a fighting chance against Whalen.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Jack Harris is definitely a game changer if he runs and has every possibility of winning.
Still have to put the smart money back on the Liberals though. Harris still lost last time when the NDP overall did much better nationally than I think we can assume they will do this time.
No Jack Harris? Liberal landslide. Harris running = 50/50 odds at best for the NDP.
Overall leaning Liberal.
05/03/19 Newfoundlander1949
Jack Harris announced today that he is seriously considering running for his old seat against Nick Whalen. Given the unpopularity and underperformance of Whalen in this riding, I cannot see Harris losing to him in a re-match. This riding has a lot of solid support for Jack Harris and he could easily take this riding back with the levels of support he was accustomed to in previous elections.
Source: https://twitter.com/PeterCBC/status/1102950451035676673
27/02/19 odude22
This riding is an anomaly compared to the others in NL which are almost guaranteed Liberal. Before we label St. John's East as the same, there are some important things to consider. Since joining confederation in 1949, there have been 21 general elections and 1 by-election contested in St. John's East. 15 of those elections were won by Progressive Conservatives/Conservatives, 5 by Liberals, and 3 by NDP (by Jack Harris on all occasions, by-election 1987, general 2008 & 2011). Prior to Whalen winning in 2015, the riding was only Liberal from 1993-1997, and before that 1963-1968. Historically, this is a conservative riding. When Whalen was elected in 2015, the Liberal share of the vote went up by 39% (and Whalen still won with less than 50% of the vote). This jump can almost certainly be attributed to Trudeau's popularity and not to Whalen. Most of the riding has been disillusioned by Whalen's term as MP and his personal popularity is low. The real question in St. John's East is whether Trudeau's popularity is high enough to secure Whalen a second term.

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