Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:38:54

Constituency Profile


Bernier, Maxime

Bernier, Maxime

Fortin, Josiane

Jacques-Côté, François

Lehoux, Richard

Rodrigue, Guillaume

Veilleux, Adam


Maxime Bernier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4103.54 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Maxime Bernier ** 3291058.90%
Adam Veilleux 1244222.30%
Daniel Royer 54439.70%
Stéphane Trudel 41447.40%
Céline Brown MacDonald 9431.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Max Bernier's riding. A lot of the riding polls point to this being a close race. I think it's going to be close between Bernier and the CPC but the CPC will win.
18/10/19 R.O.
Bernier has spent a lot of the campaign in his own riding and Scheer is making a campaign stop in the riding in the final weekend of the campaign. All signs point to this being a close one. Not sure what factor the bloc will be here as this riding has never voted for them and there not really in this race but might do better than other years. as the race is clearly between Bernier and cpc candidate Richard Lehoux.
16/10/19 PM
This will go PPC barely...
Just like ths Greens had only Elizabeth May for many years, the PPC will have its corner stone to work with. A win here will grow the party and create provincial versions like PPQ, PPO, PPA etc.
15/10/19 Riverdale Resident
Beauce Federal Polling:
CPC: 31% (-2.5)
PPC: 29% (-4)
LPC: 15% (-4.3)
BQ: 13% (+7.2)
GPC: 4% (+0.3)
NDP: 2% (+0.1)
Mainstreet Research / October 9, 2019 / n=625 / MOE 3.9% / IVR
(% chg w Aug 5)
15/10/19 Mark
This one is too close to call, I think. I'm going to be watching this one very closely on election night because it's definitely a very interesting one and a completely different animal from every other riding.
On the one hand, Bernier's party is obviously a huge failure and his own seat is clearly the only one he has any legitimate shot to win. On the other hand, I thought he showcased himself well in the debates and I don't think Quebec voters will get too caught up in ‘party voting’ and jump ship last minute to the Conservative side. Especially since this seat is almost definitely going to one of the Conservative candidates anyway.
My head says the Conservatives should win this one, but my gut says Bernier might do just enough - despite the gap closing - to pull this one out for himself. Which is unfortunate for the Conservatives, since it might make him stick around and with a few more years of vengeful effort he could turn his party into a much more smoothly run organization that could REALLY chew up some votes on the right.
Can't wait to see what happens!
13/10/19 Riverdale resident
Am I the only one who thinks, in a tight race, that the Rhino candidate will make a difference here? There was a famous example in the UK a few years ago when a similar situation occurred, a candidate running for the ‘Literal’ and not ‘Liberal’ party, swinging the election (in that case) away from the favoured Liberals and towards the UK Conservatives by stealing away just a few thousand confused votes.
Such a thing could easily happen here too. I am surprised Elections Canada allowed it.
12/10/19 Mizisuga
I stand with my prediction earlier this year. Bernier will remain the MP of Beauce after election day. He performed well in the French commission debate, and Conservative votes are being cannibalised by the Bloc.
12/10/19 GillesB02
Maybe ‘les quebecois’ are fickle overall in their voting intention, but they aren't in the Québec City area, and I do not expect anyone outside of QC to understand the dynamic. This will be one riding to watch on election night. The CPC have a small advantage because people are more loyal to the party than the incumbent, but M. Bernier is a well known figure in the area and might be able to get pass the CPC canditate. But it is to early to tell.
11/10/19 Eddie E.
Les Quebecois are a fickle bunch politically, but they also show great loyalty to their own. They won't allow Mad Max, as the leader of a national party and the almost leader of the CPC, to suffer the ignomity of losing his own riding, and this in spite of his stand against the dairy marketing boards which is a big industry here. Les gens de Beauce will nonetheless be loyal and send Max back to Ottawa, if only for the entertainment of seeing him annoy the CPC. He'll be lonely there though, as the sole PPC MP.
11/10/19 J.F. Breton
Maxime Bernier ne remportera certainement pas une victoire aussi écrasante que par le passé, mais il s'en sortira. Lutte intéressante entre les deux pôles de la Beauce: le sud pour Bernier et le nord pour Lehoux, le premier disposant d'un bassin plus grand d'électeurs. Pour avoir grandi et étudié dans la région, je ne doute pas de la réélection de Bernier, une dynastie en Beauce. D'autant que sa performance au dernier débat en français l'aura bien servi.
02/10/19 R.O.
Bernier should be a lock to hold this riding but everytime when I check where the leaders are, half the time he’s in his own riding. Combined with the fact mainstreet polls have shown a tight race between Bernier and cpc candidate Richard Lehoux. Leads me to suspect there is a realistic chance he does not keep the riding. but the outcome will really depend on turnout and how the other parties do here , if there voters still vote bloc/liberal or vote for 1 of the 2 leading candidates instead. And if Bernier gets a boost from being in the main leaders debate.
23/09/19 Stevo
Bernier's profile has slowly but surely increased throughout the course of the campaign. It will only increase further now that the debate commission has decided in his favour. Immigration has become a major sleeper issue this election and Bernier is on the correct side of it. Even if he fails to win any other seats, he should be safe in his own.
01/09/19 A.S.
As it stands, Mad Max's apparent vulnerability really does hinge a lot upon Lehoux's strengths, more than just ngeneric Con leanings--basically, CPC is striking while the iron is hot. Though I don't know what the ghost of Robert Cliché would think of this shaking out as a battle of the right vs the further-right...
11/08/20 J.F. Breton
We have a race here. Sondage Mainstreet Polls:
- Conservatives (Lehoux): 33,5%
- PPC (Bernier): 33%
- Liberal: 19%
- Bloc Québécois: 6%
- Greens: 4%
- NDP: 2%
- Others: 2,5%
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-dans-une-course-a-deux-8f68d267facebd41757d310dcc1e22d1
09/08/20 Marco Ricci
New Mainstreet riding poll shows the race in Beauce tied between the CPC & PPC:
CPC: 34%
PPC: 33%
LPC: 19%
BQ: 6%
GPC: 4%
NDP: 2%
21/06/19 seasaw
This is a Maxime Bernier riding, not a Conservative riding. He'll win here, but don't know what he's going to do after.
27/05/19 Marco Ricci
It's too soon for people to be predicting Maxime Bernier's defeat here. Polling sites like 338Canada actually show him winning here right now:
It's important to remember that it was the strength of the Bernier name which brought this riding back into the Conservative column in 2006. Prior to that, it had been a Liberal riding in 1997, 2000 & 2004 when Jean Chretien & Paul Martin were Prime Minister. And in 1993, Bernier's father, Gilles, was able to hold the seat as an Independent after Prime Minister Kim Campbell didn't sign his PC nomination papers. So the Bernier name has a history of strength in Beauce, and Maxime may hold on.
13/05/19 Neal
Well, the PCC has been a classic ‘Failure to Launch’. Combine that with the likelihiood of a Conservative win nationally in October, and things are not looking to rosy for Mad Max and his roll of the dice.
Now we have to add this to the equation:
this story broke today.
‘Norman was told by Harper cabinet to talk to Quebec shipyard about leasing deal’
This assures us of a Conservative victory in all ridings in the Quebec City region and periphery. No more TCTC here.
I also believe this will be very damaging to Liberals in general in Francophone Quebec, and will benefit either Conservatives or the Bloc depending on the region. We haven't heard the last of this.
13/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
There are many of us who like ideas like liberating the milk market which would give Max Bernier a market for his party but, as Legolas points out, the PPC has failed to take off and is getting overshadowed by the LavScam news. Without a critical issue to galvanize dissatisfied Tories and with even small-c conservatives ready to take a chance on Andrew Scheer just to defeat Justin Trudeau, I doubt Max will be able to hold onto his riding and will likely have to spend most of the campaign circling the eastern townships as a defensive strategy.
06/04/19 Legolas
Bernier's party has really failed to take off and I can't see him staving off the CPC. In December 2017 I would have probably called it for Bernier or at least TCTC, but with the CPC polling in the mid-20s in Quebec, the large number of dairy farms and farmers in the riding who are not happy with Bernier's supply management positions, and Richard Lehoux running for the CPC it is hard to see Bernier winning. While some argue it is a 'Bernier' seat, it's also a conservative seat, with the CAQ having their best results in the two Beauce seats and the nearby ridings going 50%+ to the CPC in 2015 as well. I think Bernier will finish second, but the CPC will still win comfortably.
02/04/19 The Hedonist
With the PPC continuing to grow gradually in the polls, it looks more likely that Maxime Bernier will hold onto his seat. Let's not forget the family history he has in the riding; he's also the only candidate/party that has come out in favour of lowering national immigration numbers - I believe this campaign issue has been overlooked by the Liberals/Cons (and I predict Scheer will eventually have to come out with a position on it in order to stop PPC from stealing Conservative votes.)
In any event, Bernier hold here.
28/03/19 Sam
Kyle H's analysis was spot on. Sure, Bernier is a good name to have in this riding, but when people elected him all those times, he did not have the exposure he has now, which hasn't helped him. His policies are not popular here, and his image has been changed. Beauce is not going to be the best Conservative riding, Steven Blaney will do better than Richard Lehoux, that is likely, but Lehoux can challenge here and I suspect it will go Conservative, but I will wait before firming that.
15/03/19 Kyle H
Anyone who calls this a 'Bernier riding not a Conservative riding' are reading way too much into Gilles Bernier's win in 1993, and not enough into the fact that it voted consistently against the BQ.
Beauce federally and provincially has always been anti-separatist and conservative, and if not explicitly federalist then at least regionalist and more than happy to entertain federal and provincial subsidies for its communities. The CPC are good fits here, reflected in the fact that between 2004 and 2006, while Bernier uplifted the CPC vote in Beauce 50pts, nearby we had 38pts for Christian Paradis in Megantic-L'Erable; 30pts by Jacques Gourde in Lotbiniere; and +20 everywhere everywhere else.
Basically, yes Bernier has a favourite-son thing going for him, but this is a naturally Conservativ-leaning riding, and the CPC as a party itself is on the rise in the province and region. There's nothing that says Bernier has his riding on a lock, zip to zero. Competitive, yes, no doubt, but the CPC has a very good chance to hold this and quite easily too.
12/03/19 LFCOttawa
Remember that CPC members in Beauce voted for Scheer, not Bernier in the CPC leadership. Lehoux (Tory challenger) is a dairy farmer himself who was the mayor of Saint-Elzear. Beauce voters will want to be part of a potential CPC government, rather than keeping Bernier around so the rest of the house can laugh at him.
05/03/19 Neal
I believe this riding will stay in the Conservative fold... UNLESS... it appears that the Conservatives are headed to defeat, in which case they may decide to keep Mad Max around.
That being said, I do not see the 'Peoples Party' making much of a dent in this election. Their strength, such as it is, comes from three groups. 1) Disgruntled conservatives who don't think Scheer has what it takes to defeat |Trudeau.
2) Libertarians 3) the 'Make Canada White again' crowd.
As it becomes more clear that Scheer can and will likely win, the first group will quietly return to the fold, leaving just the other two groups, neither of which have any serious strength.
The 'peoples Party' reminds me a bit of Mel Hurtig's 1993 National Party gambit where he tried to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Chretien's leadership of the Liberals (Yesterday's Man) , and progressives dspondent over the implosion of the NDP. At the end of the day, though they ran pretty close to a full slate they averaged between 200 and 800 votes per riding, and amounted to little more than a hill of beans, and a question in Trivial pursuit.
This is the fate that I believe awaits mad Max and his crew.
Don't forget, Bernier's Supply Mamangement policies are VERY unpopular in this riding of Dairy farmers. He lost to Scheer here in the leadership race.
Some talk about his winning based on 'favourite Son' status, Richard Leheux is also a Well known local force in the riding.
So my call: a Tory win Nationally means LeHeux wins, a Liberal re-election means Mad Max becomes the sole Peoples party MP.
02/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Beauce is a Bernier riding, not a Tory riding. Just as his father won re-election in 1993 as an independent, I don't believe Max needs the CPC brand to get re-elected, I believe Max will win this with 40-45% or so of the vote. Scheer isn't resonating in this province, the love affair with the NDP is over, so it's basically a Bernier-Liberal race. Favourite son Mad Max will prevail and most likely go on to play the same sort of role Real Caouette once did, as a sort of rural-Quebec flavoured Tory alternative.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
I wouldn't be so quick to call this. Maxime Bernier has some popularity here and this area is somewhat more libertarian than most parts of Quebec. Still has stance on supply management is likely offside with most residents as this riding has one of if not the largest number of dairy farmers in the country. Lets remember on the final ballot in the CPC leadership race, Scheer not Bernier won this. I also see a slight possibility of the Liberals coming up the middle if you get perfect splits on the right which wouldn't happen otherwise.
20/02/19 Mizisuga
If PPC keeps their growth in the polls, Bernier could hold this riding.
18/02/19 Tory Revert
While I think that the end of supply management would hurt Quebec farmers, Max is still a favourite son. PPC will eat into CPC support in Quebec, but I think Max prevails in his home riding.

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