Berthold, Luc
	Boisvert, Mathieu
	Charette, Nicole
	Corbeil, Priscilla
	Grégoire, Isabelle
	Lauzier, Marie Claude
	Paradis, Jean
	Roy, Damien
Incumbent:
	Luc Berthold

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			87233 88696 46507 39498 5935.56 km² 14.7/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Luc Berthold	16749	35.40%
	David Berthiaume	13308	28.10%
	Jean-François Delisle	10386	22.00%
	Virginie Provost	5838	12.30%
	Justin Gervais	1006	2.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		22321	49.14%
		11930	26.27%
		2712	5.97%
		7542	16.61%
		667	1.47%
Other		250	0.55%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Mégantic-L'Érable    (97.82% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Beauce    (2.18% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	18/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Riding has been CPC since 2006. The Liberals made it close in 2015, I think they get the job done in 2019 here.
	14/10/19	Dr. Bear 174.93.149.76
If CPC numbers continue to slide in Quebec, this seat will certainly be in play. I think the CPC have hit bottom and are leveling off but I'm starting to pay attention to this seat.
	07/09/19	A.S. 99.225.32.21
It really was more of a Christian Paradis riding than a Conservative riding, so Berthold did well to hold; and now being girded by Conservative or ‘conservative’ ridings, it feels like there's safety in numbers. But re the kinds of things bringing down the share in '15, let's consider that the riding includes recovery-mode Lac-Megantic, where the E-day vote went like this: Lib 35.15%, NDP 29.85%, CPC 17.81%, BQ 14.03%, GP 3.16%. (Every party but the Cons above riding par.)
	26/07/19	Laurence Putnam 206.116.212.8
Correct analyses offered below; another poor 2015 result for Les Bleus but don't forget everyone else still had an even worse result! Given current polling, incumbency and regional trends, even if you think the Liberals have a chance (and they do) you have to realize that the Conservatives are opening the campaign with the advantage. In a seat they already hold, all they have to do is not screw up to keep this in their column.
	21/06/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
The last time the CPC got 35% here and I believe they'll get more this time. The NDP got 22%,they won't get anywhere near that this time, while some of their support will go to the Liberals, most will go to BQ and Greens, that should make for a CPC win.
	06/04/19	Legolas 109.70.100.19
This is a Quebec Conservative seat the CPC held in 2011 with the NDP wave as well as in 2015 (although with a smaller margin due to a new candidate and losing Paradis' incumbency advantage). Nonetheless with the CPC polling nearly 10% higher than in 2015 they should hold it.
	04/04/19	Sam 86.28.79.130
Whilst I don't think Luc Berthold will win massively, I don't see any other party in contention for a victory here, even though Berthold won a low share of the vote last time. The Conservatives are in the best position in a rural riding like this, where the Liberals aren't showing the gains; there is little NDP vote to siphon from. Despite the decline in vote for the Conservatives last time, with recent trends, it seems as if it can't get much worse. Berthold should be quite comfortable.
	25/02/19	J.F. Breton 135.19.103.179
Luc Berthold is really not in danger. Easy win for the Conservatives in Chaudière-Appalaches.