Election Prediction Project

Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:07:58

Constituency Profile


Albas, Dan

Duncan, Allan

Mellalieu, Robert

Murphy, Mary Ann

Phillip, Joan

Regier, Jesse


Dan Albas

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



15984.90 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dan Albas ** 2451739.60%
Karley Scott 2305937.20%
Angelique Wood 1196119.30%
Robert Mellalieu 24363.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 7541.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kelowna-Lake Country
   (23.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   British Columbia Southern Interior
   (9.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

08/10/19 R.O.
Despite being close in 2015 , more than likely current mp Dan Albas holds onto the riding than it flips to another party . greens will likely do better as be the case in many bc ridings.
19/09/19 A.S.
Now, this was a shock; Stockwell Day’s successor riding nearly going Liberal--and that’s because the equally-unforeseen ‘Kelowna Liberal’ dynamics proved intense enough to hop Okanagan Lake and venture all the way down to Summerland and elsewhere. Then again, it *did* contain what was latterly Premier Christy Clark’s riding, so maybe it subliminally reflected her coming from the federal Liberal camp--ah, the perils of going by the one-size-fits-all illusion of the provincial BCLibs as a unilaterally ‘conservative’ party. Or, for that matter, the perils of going by the conventional wisdom of this being eternally hard-baked Wacky Bennett Socred country that’s custom-made for Jesusland types like Stockwell Day: with growth and in-diaspora comes a certain counter-sorting victim-of-its-own-popularity Lotusland-interior moderation--or perhaps an awakening of something that was always there? Still, it’s hard not to see this close call as more along the lines of said territory having gone fleetingly New Democrat in 1988--that is, in the entrenched twilight of the Harper gov’t, the Justin Libs as an attractive ‘anti-establishment’ choice; but now, the Libs *are* establishment, much like the NDP was usurped by Reform in ‘93. Ah, BC...
19/09/19 Walnut
Geographically, this riding is made up of left-over bits from other ridings. It has a chunk of City of Kelowna (the area south of Highway 97) that couldn’t fit in Kelowna–Lake Country, Logan Lake that couldn’t fit into Kamloops, and Summerland that couldn’t fit in with Penticton in South Okanagan. It lumps together the more well-off urban areas of West Kelowna and Peachland with rural resource towns of Merritt and Princeton.
Albas had to leave his native Penticton in 2015 (which was split off to South Okanagan) to contest this riding (which more resembles his old riding of Okanagan—Coquihalla) but only won it by 2.5%. It is feasible that the Liberals could win this riding with the right candidate, and Murphy does have a significant list of qualifications, but Albas has a reassuring comfortableness about him that shows he is in tune with voters and that this is his riding.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Was close last time. Won't be this time.
22/06/19 Mark in Mexico
The Liberals had an impressive showing here last time but I expect the Conservative vote share to increase well into the 40s, making it virtually impossible for any of the other parties to overtake them.
12/04/19 Sam
Dr Bear has shown consistency in his projections, but like in Cariboo-PG, I don't agree with his narrative that the Liberals are in the running due to a decline in the NDP vote, which is smaller here anyway. Whereas the other parties may target Kamloops, this riding, whilst close, was a blip and a bad result for the Conservatives. The riding boundaries changed so Albas' incumbency advantage was significantly limited, but now he knows the whole riding, and that will add a few points. But that shouldn't matter given the swing to the Liberals, the Conservatives are competing on Vancouver Island, Delta and Stikine, they won't need to worry about this.
01/03/19 Dr.Bear
I was very surprised at how well the Liberals did in the BC interior back in 2015. I NEVER would have predicted a Liberal win in Kelowna and I would have scoffed at the idea of the Liberals coming within 2 points of taking Central Okanagan from the CPC....but here we are...
Whatever the Liberals did in the BC interior, it worked! Now I am forced to give a TCTC prediction for this riding. If compelled to make a decision, I would say CPC hold. The Liberals do have a record to uphold and we are currently in the middle of a significant scandal. Still, we mare many months away from an election and this scandal may well blow over by then. As well, the Liberals moving to expand the pipeline from Alberta is popular in many parts of the BC interior. TCTC until we see how this election is unfolding.

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