Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(67.97% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
(32.03% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|A rare three-way race with the ruling party seemingly back in fourth place. Since the Greens ran fourth here in 2015 it seems there should be some fearful shifts to the NDP, or some (better deal) vote swaps with friends and family in the Green-leaning seats in the south of the Island. There is some chance of a near-even Liberal/NDP/Green split that hands it to the Cons. Remember that when Liberal vote collapses the few first & the very last votes to leave are the ones that go Conservative rather than Green or NDP. A Liberal dip favors the Cons, Liberal near-collapse favors NDP and Green, but a Liberal total collapse favors Cons again.|
|CML is listed as a tossup with a slight lead by the NDP. I would add the NDP has found its mo jo and should not be underestimated|
|Re the Greens and poll underperformance: actually, itd be pushing things (even with margins of error taken into account) to say they *didnt* underperform in PEI, given how every poll in the three months leading into the election gave them *at least* a mid-30s share and a polling lead or something darned close to it--yes, going from 2 seats to Official Opposition is hard to complain about; but most pundits were expecting them to actually *win*. (And besides, big swings arent unknown in PEI; to take one case, Pat Binns took the PCs from a single seat to government in 1996.) Which is to say, dont take a Green victory in CML for granted, particularly as the NDPs actually finally showing writ-period signs of life--though yes, the fact that they hold Cowichan Valley provincially (their only seat *not* overlapped in whole or in part by Elizabeth Mays federally) does work to their favour...|
||Lifelong GV Resident|
|In every recent election where the Greens have won seats, they have not underperformed the polls, @Physastr Master. In the last BC provincial election, the last two polls had the Greens at 17% and they got 16.83%. In the last New Brunswick election, the Greens exceeded every poll released during the election period except two. In the Ontario election, the Greens' final result was smack dab on the polling averages. In PEI the Greens' result was within the margin of error, and it's certainly hard to complain when you go from 2 seats to being the official opposition! I couldn't find a single example of the Greens underperforming the polls (outside the margin of error) in a recent election where they also won seats. And coming into the election at historic highs and with three incumbents (two of which previously won as Greens), my bet is this election will be similar. And not just the Greens, but other anti-establishment parties have also been doing well (Alberta Party, New Brunswick People's Alliance, Québec solidaire, the NDP in Newfoundland, etc.). In recent elections, people all over Canada are actually holding to their commitments to smaller parties from the opinion polls right into the ballot boxes. It's not that people aren't voting strategically anymore, it's that those that are doing so are making those decisions further in advance so the polls are reflecting it.|
Back to Cowichan Malahat Langford, McGregor is a fine MP and I'd be perfectly satisfied for him to win again. The problem is he's hitched his wagon to a horse that's dragging him down. He'd probably do better running as a Green than as an NDP in 2019. I like Singh, but he's singularly failed to right the NDP ship. NDP fundraising is at historic lows, whereas the Greens are fundraising at historic highs. Since this seat overlaps with a seat the Greens won provincially, the public will be expecting them to do well here and that will reduce the odds of people voting strategically here anyway. Perhaps the Greens will take this seat, perhaps they won't, but in either event I bet the result will be very similar to whatever the polls are saying in October.
|There is certainly a lot of support for the Greens here and elsewhere on the island, but you should exercise caution to make outright calls here and elsewhere. Greens consistently underperform in general elections as they often fall victim to some pretty lopsided strategic voting. This is how they can almost take Victoria and (somehow) Calgary Centre in by-elections, but fail to take Victoria in a good year with a good candidate and basically all pundits saying they'll win. By-elections are more consequence-free environments, so people aren't afraid of voting their mind. That said, once they win, the dynamic changes, and that fear of voting green disapears. This is why Green leaders consistently win with large margins across Canada after their first victory, and it is also why Paul Manly is almost certainly safe. My point is that unless the greens actually get a wave that sticks until the general election, which I'm still skeptical about, they'll need very good candidates to win. With the NDP campaigning on a green new deal proposal, there's really no convincing case that environmentalist votes leaving the liberals due to the trans-mountain approval will actually go green. Therefore, I'm not saying this *won't* go green, it's just way too early to say, and the same goes for most NDP-held ridings on the south Island. Regardless, this is a NDP-Green race, and I'm sure we'll have a much better idea where it's going after the writ drops|
|With the federal authorization of the Trans Mountain pipeline, I put this riding in the Green Party column. The latest polls place Greens over 20% in British Columbia.|
||Lifelong GV Resident|
|I'm moving my prediction from Too Close To Call to a Green win. Luke Krayenhoff, who was the Liberal candidate in the last election and came second, is seeking the Green Party nomination for this riding due to his disenchantment with the Trudeau Liberals over electoral reform, pipelines, etc. If Krayenhoff gets the nomination then he will be well placed to bring disaffected Liberals over to the surging Greens. We saw in Nanaimo that the Liberals lost about 2/3rds of their vote to the Greens without their candidate jumping ship, who knows how much of the Liberal vote the Greens can capture with the Liberal candidate switching to the Greens. If Krayenhoff gets the nomination (or doesn't get it, but vocally supports the candidate who does) then I think the Greens will add this riding to their tally. The CBC Poll Tracker has the Greens winning 4 of 7 ridings on the Island, as does Calculated Politics. 338Canada.com has the Greens in first place in the popular vote on Vancouver Island and likely to win five seats, including this one (which they have as Leans Green).|
||Lifelong GV Resident|
|I suggest this one is back in the too-close-to-call column after the Greens did so well in Nanaimo. If the good news keeps coming for the Greens (and there's potential for more good news in the PEI by-election in 2.5 months), and the NDP continues to underperform in the polls, then this will no longer be a safe seat. I don't see the Conservatives taking it after their showing in Nanaimo (merely holding their vote despite province-wide polling increases). I see the Liberal vote bleeding mostly to the Greens here as it did in Nanaimo.|
|An open seat on Vancouver Island has to be fertile for the Greens. They hold one of the seats provincially that aligns with Cowichan-Malahat-Langford. The NDP has plunged federally and the by-election next door is a key indicator. The Liberal vote should largely swing Green too and give them another seat. Sure, John Horgan is based in Langford, but the Greens fall closer to their local views too|
In theory, the Conservatives might be able to win on a 4-way vote split, but the progressive vote has become too strong here and climate change is the big issue here. It's more likely the Greens will sweep central and southern Vancouver Island now and the Malahat won't be an exception...
|There are several reasons this is probably leaning NDP at this point despite a broad increase of support for the Greens across the Island. |
In this riding, both Duncan and Langford are the two major population centres where voters routinely favour the NDP. In Duncan, the support ran high for the incumbent MP in 2015 and despite losing to the Greens provincially in 2017, the provincial NDP still garnered significant support in Duncan over the Greens. Meanwhile in Langford, the NDP remained competitive in 2015 as they held their ground firmly against all three other parties. Langford is also the home turf of Premier John Horgan where he swiftly defeated the third-place BC Greens.
However, the Greens do have potential in and around Shawnigan Lake where they dominated in the 2017 provincially election and placed higher than the NDP in the 2015 election. The potential for Liberal votes to bleed to the Tories or the Greens is certainly possible in the Shawnigan Lake area.
Nonetheless, the NDP seems to have a good edge at this point over the Greens or Conservatives, as they seem to have high enough support in the two major population centres that are essential to winning the race. It is obviously too early but the odds, as it stands currently, favour the NDP.
|Not an easy call at all yet. The Liberals are likely to lose a good chunk of their vote from 2015, and this could go three ways, probably going mostly to the Conservatives or Greens. As mentioned below, the Greens took Cowichan Valley in the last provincial election, so there is indeed some existing support here for them, and with their current polling numbers, they're likely to gain a lot compared to 2015. The outcome here largely depends on how solid the NDP support is here in general.|
I'd put this as target #5 for the Greens on the Island, and as the riding the NDP are most likely to keep south of Courtenay-Alberni. The Conservatives could take this too, but it would have to be off of a really close vote split.
|This riding appears to be a riding which the NDP are likely to win, and indeed they have the best chance. It should however be noted that the Green Party won the southern part of this riding provincially, and are heavily contesting three other ridings on the Island. This effect may not allow the Greens to win the riding, but their strength could siphon votes from the NDP and give the two other main parties an outside chance.|