Election Prediction Project

Fleetwood-Port Kells
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:08:45

Constituency Profile


Baertl, Tanya

Hardie, Ken

Ohana, Annie

Poulin, Mike

Purewal, Shinder


Ken Hardie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



69.60 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ken Hardie 2287146.90%
Nina Grewal ** 1427529.30%
Garry Begg 1046321.50%
Richard Hosein 11542.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3060.88%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (92.37% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Surrey North
   (7.63% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Nick M.
Had a buddy receive final days over the top attack ad leaflets against the Conservative party in this riding.
Not sure if any party officially authorized the leaflets, or if it was a rogue individual, but it tells me that momentum is in the favour of the CPC here. (The image I saw lacked any ‘authorized by the’ statement. But was coloured on glossy paper.)
Seen it happen in my days in the trenches.
Usually such over the top leaflet attacks are distributed on E-day. Seen it work in a nail biter to boot.
In light of this attack ad leaflet, I am placing this riding as a CPC pick up.
02/10/19 R.O.
A mainstreet poll has liberal mp Ken Hardie and Shinder Purewal the new cpc candidate essentially tied here.
Liberals, Conservatives deadlocked in Surrey riding: Mainstreet polls
17/09/19 A.S.
Another '15 Liberal sideswipe in Surrey--and unlike Cloverdale-Langley City, its provincial profile leans more BCNDP than BCLib; which is why some viewed it as NDP-targetable in 2015 (before Justinmania blew all of that to smithereens), and why the Cons did worse despite running an incumbent. (NDP-shy voters must have thought: finally, a firm excuse *not* to vote for Nina Grewal. And now with probable vindication by her ex-MP husband running for Team Bernier next door.)
12/08/20 seasaw
The Liberals did really well the last time around, but now they don't have the support that they had in the province. With just under 3 months left in the election, anything can happen.
03/03/19 Sam
The scale of the victory here last time indicated how well the Liberals did in BC, taking nearly half the vote with the opposition split. They are definitely favourites with Ken Hardie running again, although the Conservatives have won it several times before and should not be discounted.

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