Election Prediction Project

Cape Breton-Canso
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:50:46

Constituency Profile


Grandy, Brad

Kelloway, Mike

MacLeod, Fiona

Reddick, Jana


Mike Kelloway

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8752.81 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mike Kelloway 1669438.90%
Alfie MacLeod 1482134.50%
Laurie Suitor 635414.80%
Clive Doucet 33217.70%
Billy Joyce 9252.20%
Michelle Dockrill 6851.60%
Darlene Lynn LeBlanc 1400.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rodger Cuzner ** 3216374.40%
Adam Daniel Rodgers 624614.40%
Michelle Smith 35478.20%
Maria Goretti Coady 12813.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Cape Breton-Canso
   (90.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Central Nova
   (9.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/09/21 R.O.
Mike Kelloway was first elected in 2019 after a close race with former pc mla Elfie Macleod who didn’t run again. Not really a well known mp but riding has been liberal for some time minus 97 when in a fluke it went ndp. Cpc gains here in 2019 were a surprise for some as the riding hadn’t been a cpc target before. They have a new candidate this election Fiona Macleod. Ndp are also a factor here and have a new candidate Jana Reddick .
02/09/21 Murphy
Well this is a shocker. Even without a former MLA running like Alfie MacLeod, the Conservatives are managing to keep it competitive as per the Mainstreet poll. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next two weeks but the Liberals could win or lose in a squeaker. TCTC
01/09/21 Lolitha
Mainstreet riding poll has a near tie, LIberal 42 to Cons 40. TCTC
31/08/21 Drew613
A Mainstreet poll came out within the past few days for Cape Breton-Canso showing a Liberal lead of less than 2 points. Definitely TCTC. This looks like it's shaping up to be another close one like it was in 2019: https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/CapeBretonCanso-iPolitics-20August2021.pdf
27/08/21 C B
Alright, I think someone needs to pipe in with a more level-headed, ‘let’s not rush to coronate’ assessment. It would be foolish to not acknowledge that the gains made provincially by the PC’s. Indirect effect? Absolutely, but still very recent as well. One needs to also acknowledge that the current immediate polling trajectory portends gains for the Conservatives. To what extent so far, who knows? I tend to agree with Sam on this one, but just not good common sense projecting a race so quickly when it was within 2,500 last time and current polling, how accurate we shall see, shows a tight race. Too close to call.
19/08/21 Man
Solid Liberal riding. Someone commented: no, Fiona MacLeod is not related to Alfie, she is the daughter of longtime Conservative supporter Alistair MacLeod.
19/08/21 A.S.
The Cape Breton Liberal vote *can* be mercurial; if you think '15-to '19 was crazy, David Dingwall went from a 70-point winning margin in '93 to losing to the NDP in '97. In that light, Cape Breton has some kinship w/Newfoundland in its proneness to breakneck swings--and maybe in these times of CPC forming the primary threat, *very* vague echoes of Rust Belt Obama/Trump. (There's also the mainland ‘Canso’ part of the riding to consider--except that being away from Alfie country, *that* didn't really go CPC in '19.) And even without anything on the scale of Archie MacKinnon next door, there were other bits of weirdness in '19, whether it be a former NDP-aligned Ottawa councillor/mayoral candidate running for the Greens, or that Dingwall-defeating former NDP MP running as an Independent (w/o a smidgen of MacKinnon's success), or radio host/QAnon conspiracist Billy Joyce running for PPC and actually (and ominously) getting 13% in his Isle Madame home turf (and winning a poll in Sampsons Cove in the process). But I agree that w/incumbency and the lack of a star CPC effort, it should be clearer sailing now for the Libs--and much as in N&L, Cape Breton's ‘opposition surges’ tend to be one-election wonders.
09/08/21 Sam
Right call here to give this one to the Liberals. It's hard to overstate how much Alfie Macleod boosted the Conservatives here - the closeness of the race was purely down to him against the unknown candidacy of Mike Kelloway. But ultimately this riding proved how Liberal a riding it is, as Kelloway still won.
05/08/21 Stevo
Like neighbouring Sydney-Victoria, the Liberal margin collapsed from 60 points to under 5. And unlike in Sydney, there was no strong independent candidate in the mix here to disrupt voting patterns. Conservatives winning here would be on par with them winning Stormont-Dundas in Eastern Ontario in 2004, perhaps the start of a regional shift away from the Liberals.
26/06/21 No Where Man
Mike Kelloway is the incumbent and will likely win. Alfie Macleod, a popular long time MLA who came in a close second in the last election, is not running. The Conservative candidate is Fiona MacLeod. As far as I know there is no relation. Her bio states that she is from Halifax and spent many years working in Ottawa with various federal departments. Cape Breton Canso has voted Liberal in the past seven elections and will likely continue in the next election.

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