|When one party, Green becomes a pale imitation of the other, turncoat status does not really matter, and the vote tends to align. Radical Greens will not be enough to come close to that coalition. Also, there is no single issue that makes all the Green-Liberal voters mad at the Liberals - business closures are opposed by those who vote cons anyway, there is no reason for the the left to vote against a friend in power. I see little that makes cons vote stronger here than in 2019. The incumbent would have to get into a much bigger controversy than Israel views to get defeated her.|
|I don't see how the MP's views on Israel can possibly impact the race in Fredericton - a city with no Jews and few evangelicals. Assuming there is residual strength for the Green Party that will not follow the MP to the Liberals, it makes this seat an interesting target for the Conservatives to play the vote split and come up the middle.|
|If the Green candidate here (the new one) can muster 12k votest and make it a 3 way race, then the Conservatives win. Liberals will need to retain past support and pick up the center Green votes which is no easy task.|
|Just commenting to say I find it hilarious that people expect this election to swing on Israel, of all things. This strikes me less as analysis and more as fanfic.|
|Atwin has angered a lot of the older people in this riding with her anti-Israeli stance, she will still get the young vote but will allow this to be a pick up for the cons that have always had a good showing here.|
|Jenica sealed her fate in the short walk across the aisle. And subsequently looked like a hypocrite on Israel. The pool of Liberals and defecting Greens will not be enough to beat the Tories.|
|I am predicting a Conservative win here, because the Liberal candidate and MP is a turncoat, and historically turncoats haven't done very well in the past. You could argue that by mentioning Scott Bryson, but Bryson was never a Conservative he was a Progressive Conservative who didn't like the idea of united right, and also Jenica Atwin is certainly no Scott Bryson. That should be enough to put the riding in the blue column|
|Jenica Atwin's decision to cross the floor from the Greens to the Liberals probably makes this riding a Liberal vs. Conservative race. The Liberals can win the riding back with Atwin if they can coalesce the Liberal vote with some of the Green vote, but if this does not work, the Conservatives will have a shot at the riding.|
|Jenica Atwin doesn't much like talking about why she left the Greens. Certainly, she's happy to discuss her future with the Liberals, but the past? Not so much.|
This is because her reasons for defecting are kind of hard to square: the version of events filtering out through spokespeople is that she's had several conflicts with new Green leader Annamie Paul, but if it's the case that she's left the Greens because she found the leadership overbearing and stifling, she's going to be in for a rude awakening as a Liberal backbencher. Doesn't hold up.
Really, the only version of events which makes a lick of sense is that Atwin knows what side her bread's buttered on. By now, it's obvious that this Fredericton seat wasn't a Green beachhead so much as a toehold, and Annamie Paul's political and geographic focus is elsewhere.
In general, Atlantic Greens (provincial and federal) win by running on an ecumenical we-do-politics-different message, rather than on earnest ideological positions. Elizabeth May's approach was highly compatible with this local reality; Annamie Paul, not so much.
And if Atwin felt that Paul's leadership was going to leave her exposed... well, the savvy move is to defect to the Liberals. Atwin's personal brand plus the existing Liberal vote should be more than enough to carry this seat in the face of anything but a Conservative surge. (Certainly, nobody expects the Greens to have a shot without her.)
The Liberals get an Indigenous woman who can be trotted out as an argument against the necessity of the Green Party, and she gets access to power of a type she could never have attained as a Green MP. It may be slightly careerist, but heaven forbid a bright 34-year-old have political ambitions beyond being a one-term fifth-party backbencher.
|Jenica Atwin est passée chez les Libéraux. ةnorme perte pour les Verts qui reculent de 10 ans avec cette défection. Il était déjà difficile d'imaginer une réélection d'Atwin avec les Verts. Son passage au PLC lui donne une énorme avance vers la victoire.|
|Prior to today I would have said that this was going to be a tight race that Jenica Atwin would be slightly favoured in. She has done well in her first term as MP, proving herself effective, even winning MacLean's rising star award among MP's.|
With her announcement that she would be joining the Liberals, I'd move her from a slight favourite to the clear favourite.
|The former Green MP crossed the floor to become a Liberal MP|
|Jenica Atwin pourra-t-elle récidiver et l'emporter pour les Verts dans Fredericton? Je le souhaite ardemment. Il ne fait pas de doute que les Verts y mettront toutes les ressources nécessaires, mais les Libéraux et Conservateurs y verront l'occasion de faire un gain pour décrocher une majorité. Ce sera une lutte difficile.|