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Hamilton Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:20:06
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Green, Matthew


Incumbent:

Matthew Green

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

100103
101932

53261
47465

30.22 km²
3312.10/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Matthew Green 2036846.20%
Jasper Kujavsky 1265128.70%
Monica Ciriello 634114.40%
Jason Lopez 33707.60%
Melina Mamone 8331.90%
Gary Duyzer 1820.40%
Tony Lemma 1580.40%
Edward Graydon 1340.30%
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan 850.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Christopherson ** 1871945.60%
Anne Tennier 1371833.40%
Yonatan Rozenszajn 601814.60%
Ute Schmid-Jones 17784.30%
Michael James Baldasaro 3480.80%
Rob Young 3160.80%
Maria Anastasiou 1860.50%


2011 Results (redistributed)

807823.47%
2074260.26%
450913.10%
1720.50%
Other 9252.69%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Hamilton Centre
   (90.25% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   (9.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Andrea Horwath * 2386665.25%
Dionne Duncan 573015.67%
Deirdre Pike 398210.89%
Jason Lopez 21025.75%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

653221.93%
377312.67%
1624854.56%
27419.20%
Other 4891.64%


28/07/20 Stevo
164.177.56.217
This is the safest NDP seat in Ontario, but it's indicative of just how precarious the NDP is in this province that it isn't even THAT safe. Safest seat relatively speaking, but a Liberal wave has the potential to wash over it with little resistance.
26/06/21 Hammer
142.120.104.154
Green has his detractors but even they will still vote for him. There's really no contest. The question similar to last time --- will he crack 50%?
07/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
There was some speculation in 2019 after David Christopherson stepped down that this riding might be competitive for the Liberals. Despite a strong Liberal result in the Golden Horseshoe, Matthew Green kept the riding orange, even slightly performing above Christopherson in 2015. This is a safe NDP seat.



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