Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:27:41

Constituency Profile


Lachica, Joy

Monsef, Maryam


Maryam Monsef

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3025.15 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Maryam Monsef ** 2740039.30%
Michael Skinner 2435734.90%
Candace Shaw 1187217.00%
Andrew MacGregor 49307.10%
Alexander Murphy 8901.30%
Robert M Bowers 1800.30%
Ken Ranney 1720.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Maryam Monsef 2915943.80%
Michael Skinner 2333535.10%
Dave Nickle 1243718.70%
Doug Mason 14802.20%
Toban Leckie 1310.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2680.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
   (6.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Dave Smith 2290437.68%
Sean Conway 2051833.75%
Jeff Leal * 1494624.59%
Gianne Broughton 20243.33%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6351.19%

09/07/20 PTBO Pundit
The Liberals have an insurmountable lead nationally so its already over in this riding. Also the Liberal incumbent is using the well honed, time honored tradition of telling silly stories about fictitious train stops. If there's one thing everyone loves in Peterborough, its fake trains.
23/06/21 Stevo
It's quite repetitive each election cycle, but needs to be said. Peterborough remains, after all this time, the top bellwether seat in Canada (and the top Ontario provincial bellwether too). Yes perhaps THIS will be the election where it breaks that longstanding record, but I wouldn't bet on it.
11/05/21 Craig
If the election was tomorrow, the Liberals would be strongly favoured in Peterborough-Kawartha as they are leading in polls. However, this is the ultimate bellwether in Canada. Hence, if the Conservatives can rise in the polls, they can't be ruled out here. As a result, it is a fool's errand to predict a winner here this early.
There's something about Peterborough that makes it a microcosm of Canada and that has lasted for decades, as it falls near average on just about every indicator. There's no reason why it won't continue this time around.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster