Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:27

Constituency Profile


Dabrusin, Julie


Julie Dabrusin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



19.75 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Julie Dabrusin ** 2768147.70%
Min Sook Lee 1928333.20%
Zia Choudhary 609110.50%
Chris Tolley 37616.50%
Tara Dos Remedios 6211.10%
Elizabeth Abbott 2610.40%
John Kladitis 2100.40%
Ivan Byard 1510.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Julie Dabrusin 2353142.30%
Craig Scott 2232540.20%
Benjamin Dichter 54789.90%
Chris Tolley 26184.70%
John Richardson 12752.30%
Elizabeth Abbott 3540.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3870.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Peter Tabuns * 3293864.25%
Patricia Kalligosfyris 813115.86%
Li Koo 721614.07%
Andrew Trotter 22484.38%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 11892.76%

29/07/20 MF
Danforth has an illustrious NDP history (the Riverdale canvassing model in the 60s and of course Jack Layton) but in the last election the Layton legacy had ceased to be a factor and voted more in line with what you'd expect in the Justin Trudeau era. And compared to the west end ridings, it's less young and ‘renter-heavy.’ This may be #3 in terms of NDP pickups. Davenport is obviously the most NDP-friendly riding, and Parkdale-High Park may be #2.
18/07/20 A.S.
While the gap was slightly narrower here than in PHP in '19 (and it's the only Toronto riding where the NDP has been continuously provincially regnant this century), I can't see how Toronto-Danforth in a post-Layton era is *that* much more within Dipper radar--and it isn't even that much of a ‘renter-heavy riding’ compared to some: most of it is single-family or recent-condo-yuppie, and as such it's more demographically ‘balanced’ than the Parkdale/Roncy vs Swansea/Bloor West dynamic of PHP (and this being inner Toronto, the homeowners get ever more affluent and hypothetically out of NDP reach). Plus, the same old question of whether there's really enough Justin fatigue out there as an alibi for committing to Jagmeet- enthusiasm. And Dabrusin's more of an old-shoe-already like Virani than ‘eternally useless’ like Dzerowicz.
07/07/20 Toronto Wanderer
Even though the Liberals are heading towards a majority government, NDP numbers are hovering around 20% nationally and the NDP polling at or above that number in Ontario. I think this has a strong chance of flipping back to the NDP. Julie Dabruisin has been a rather uninspiring backbench Liberal MP.
13/06/21 Stevo
I feel confident in predicting that the Liberals will not sweep every 416 seat for a third election in a row. Housing affordability is likely to be the top issue in the upcoming vote. In a renter-heavy riding like this, very few people have benefited from all the gifts and interventions that the Liberals have showered on homeowners. This seat, perhaps one of 3-4 in the 416, will fall to the NDP.
24/05/21 seasaw
The Liberals will win this one again.
08/05/21 Chris N
Many predicted that Toronto Danforth would go back to the NDP in 2019, but the Liberals held it by more than 10%. If the Liberals start to drop in the polls, the NDP will be more competitive. At this time, the riding is leaning Liberal.

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