Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:10:11

Constituency Profile


Carey, Michael

Dabrusin, Julie

Desai, Habiba

Hacksel, Clare

Rowley, Elizabeth

Simmons, Wayne

Tollar, Maryem

White, Liz


Julie Dabrusin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



19.75 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Julie Dabrusin ** 2768147.70%
Min Sook Lee 1928333.20%
Zia Choudhary 609110.50%
Chris Tolley 37616.50%
Tara Dos Remedios 6211.10%
Elizabeth Abbott 2610.40%
John Kladitis 2100.40%
Ivan Byard 1510.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Julie Dabrusin 2353142.30%
Craig Scott 2232540.20%
Benjamin Dichter 54789.90%
Chris Tolley 26184.70%
John Richardson 12752.30%
Elizabeth Abbott 3540.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3870.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Peter Tabuns * 3293864.25%
Patricia Kalligosfyris 813115.86%
Li Koo 721614.07%
Andrew Trotter 22484.38%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 11892.76%

19/09/21 Matt L
I’ve been watching this race closely. Both campaigns seem to be matching each other in visibility in the riding, with the edge to the NDP in signs. However, the NDP also beat the Grits in the sign war in 2019. In the provincial polls, the Liberals seem stable compared to 2019, while the NDP are up a point or two. I think the NDP improves their showing in Toronto Danforth, but it won’t be enough. My final prediction is a Liberal hold by a 5-10% margin.
16/09/21 BrianM
I am going to refrain from making a prediction here, but I do think the Liberal posters below are taking this riding too far for granted.
Jagmeet Singh was here on the Danforth *again* today (Thurs Sep 16) - this is the *2nd* time he has visited Toronto Danforth this campaign. Dabrusin, while popular and well known across the ‘moms of Riverdale,’ does not have automatic broad appeal across this diverse riding (including Little India, Chinatown east, Leslieville, East York, Thorncliffe Park and so on).
Hacksel I suspect was a deliberate choice of the NDP - she is also a mom, and her young son has featured with her in many press pictures. Even in affluent Riverdale (where I am fortunate enough to live), an area that should be the core of Dabrusin's support, NDP signs are at least as prominent as those of the Liberals.
Well know of course is that this Jack Layton's old riding and that it had the largest NDP majority provincially of any riding in Ontario.
Since the Liberals dominate most of Toronto federally, I am not completely convinced that even a 20 point GTA lead is that informative locally here. Perhaps Dabrusin will hold on, but if so it will be significantly closer than last time. It would also likely set up a battle royale of a rematch in a year or two, assuming the government ends up being another short-lived minority.
16/09/21 Drew613
Another GTA-specific poll has come out, this time from Nanos, showing not just the same things as Campaign and Mainstreet, but an even bigger 20 point lead over the CPC. They, like the others are also confirming that the NDP aren't making any inroads in Toronto vs the 2019 election. The NDP's growth in Ontario is everywhere but the GTA. As such, I predict the Liberals will continue to hold Toronto-Danforth after Monday night. It wasn't close in 2019 and it won't be much closer in 2021. https://www.cp24.com/news/housing-continues-to-top-covid-19-as-key-ballot-box-issue-for-gta-voters-poll-1.5586585
15/09/21 Sam
I think this and Parkdale are probably just a bit too far gone for the NDP - certainly they won't win it purely on polling numbers even with Liberals not turning out (of course, the NDP might struggle with lower youth turnout), and as has been said, the incumbent has some local popularity that might not be noticed by simply looking at the figures. It might not have the same NDP-destroying condo factor as Spadina-Fort York, but it's no Davenport here either. Should be a narrower Liberal hold in my eyes - I think many people would be more surprised if the NDP won this than if the Liberals won Davenport.
13/09/21 Dr Bear
If you look at the current polling numbers in Ontario, the Liberals are down four points while the NDP are up two. This isn’t enough to flip Toronto-Danforth. The Liberal incumbent seems to have some local appeal that will save her from any overall middling Liberal results.
12/09/20 KXS
It was surprising that they won this by a comfortable margin in 2019. It's clear that Julie Dabrusin is personally popular here.
As we approach the final stretch of the campaign, I think the Liberals will retain this riding. The NDP is having a good campaign overall, but I don't think its good enough that they can close an 8000 vote gap here.
11/09/21 Drew613
Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Toronto proper. In fact, the poll has the NDP lower in Toronto than anywhere else in Ontario. With a lead like that, none of the 416 ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also almost unchanged (well within the MoE) from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Toronto Danforth = Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view
09/09/21 R.O.
Still have a hard time understanding how the ndp lost Toronto Danforth to begin with. They had held it during 2012 by election and were on pace to hold it in 2015 until the liberal surge allowed them to steal the seat at last minute and then hold it in 2019. Provincially a very safe ndp riding not sure its ever been liberal in recent memory. But never heard of Clare Hacksel had do google her to figure out who she was. But riding could still go ndp this year if they maintain some momentum , its one of a couple seats in Toronto with ndp history currently liberal.
06/09/21 Chris N
I'm moving my prediction from Liberal to Too Close to Call. As BrianM notes, the NDP seems better organized in Toronto Danforth this time around. Admittedly, I typically only travel through the northern half of the riding, but there seem to be more signs and leaflets in mail boxes. Re: Jeff316 - You're correct that the CPC are always invisible in Toronto Danforth come election time. However, the Greens have also been slow out the gate and seem to lack the infrastructure of previous campaigns. I reckon this could help the NDP more than the Liberals, especially among the crunchy granola types in the co-ops and rowhouses of Riverdale and Leslieville.
06/09/21 Cd87
With NDP support softening in Ontario to the Liberals' benefit hard to see them making up the 15 point gap from 2 years ago here.
05/09/21 Wildflower
People do not want a 2 tier healthcare system
People want more action on climate change, and social housing .Way more job creation
Jack layton old riding~ Since Adam Vaughan is not running, the NDP will likely take this seat
04/09/21 JC
Should be a Liberal this time around, are the NDP doing enough to motivate, and will the Liberals stay home.
04/09/21 Matt B.
Liberals and NDP are currently polling within the margin of error, with a ‘toss-up’ rating on 338, in what was once considered an absolutely safe Liberal riding. The trend over the last few weeks in this riding has been a slip from the Liberals to the NDP. The NDP have momentum here and this looks to be a flip, if this trend continues.
03/09/21 jeff316
In the days of auld, you could count on the Conservatives to garner a respectable third-place but in today's Toronto-Danforth that's just not a given. And that's not a good sign for Clare Hacksel.
Hacksel is a strong candidate - she's qualified and locally known - and should bring the NDP to around 36-38%. But it's still likely not enough to win. She needs the Conservatives to peel enough votes away from Dabrusin to ensure the Liberals are below 40%.
Unlike in other NDP-friendly ridings, there just isn't enough of the upper-crust elite wealth or the down-home European immigrant vote to make the Conservatives an effect anti-Liberal foil for the NDP.
02/09/21 Not Non-Partisan
While this prediction goes against my thinking on the gentrification of Leslieville/Riverdale/East York, it is apparent that Clare Hacksel has a strong campaign happening. I understand that signs don’t vote - but they mean something. The diminishing Lib vote has to go somewhere and the NDP is the default here.
27/08/21 BrianM
As a local resident I simply observe at this point that the local Liberal campaign appears on a par with prior campaigns, whereas the NDP campaign appears to be considerably better organized and more energetic than previously. No sign of the Greens at all, they may all be in Toronto Centre helping Annamie Paul. Conservatives are a non-factor here.
TCTC but the gap will be a lot closer than last time, in one direction or another.
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead at 50% support in the 416. I can't see anything but another Liberal sweep of the 416 this time around, including a Liberal hold of Toronto-Danforth. I think this can be changed from TCTC for now. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
23/08/21 Chris N
Three months after my first prediction, I still have the Liberals with the edge on The Danforth. The NDP has a very large pool of support in this riding, and I would argue a bigger dyed-in-wool Dipper base than the Liberals. However, as noted by others, the deciding factor will be the conventional Liberal-NDP flipper who goes with where the progressive winds are blowing. The incumbent, Julie Dabrusin, is a solid constituency MP but has a relatively low profile in Parliament, and would likely be one of the first victims of a sudden NDP jump in the polls in the 20%+ range on Election Day. Some polls have Singh's NDP flirting in that range. However, unless it holds in the next few weeks, I have the Liberals with the edge.
14/08/21 Hammer
This will be very close race. I give the slight advantage to the Liberals at this time because they performed above expectations in 2019. Liberals are sort of in a Catch 22 in a lot of progressive-leaning urban ridings. On the one hand, they are polling well, but the NDP is also polling better than 2019. More importantly, the low polling for the CPC means that the Liberals will have a harder time convincing soft NDP/leftish-flexible voters to vote strategically for the Liberals because the CPC boogeyman is no longer within reach of a majority. I could even see a scenario where the Liberals increase their national seat count, but lose a smattering urban ridings like Toronto Danforth due to a decline in strategic voting among leftish progressive types.
29/07/21 MF
Danforth has an illustrious NDP history (the Riverdale canvassing model in the 60s and of course Jack Layton) but in the last election the Layton legacy had ceased to be a factor and voted more in line with what you'd expect in the Justin Trudeau era. And compared to the west end ridings, it's less young and ‘renter-heavy.’ This may be #3 in terms of NDP pickups. Davenport is obviously the most NDP-friendly riding, and Parkdale-High Park may be #2.
18/07/21 A.S.
While the gap was slightly narrower here than in PHP in '19 (and it's the only Toronto riding where the NDP has been continuously provincially regnant this century), I can't see how Toronto-Danforth in a post-Layton era is *that* much more within Dipper radar--and it isn't even that much of a ‘renter-heavy riding’ compared to some: most of it is single-family or recent-condo-yuppie, and as such it's more demographically ‘balanced’ than the Parkdale/Roncy vs Swansea/Bloor West dynamic of PHP (and this being inner Toronto, the homeowners get ever more affluent and hypothetically out of NDP reach). Plus, the same old question of whether there's really enough Justin fatigue out there as an alibi for committing to Jagmeet- enthusiasm. And Dabrusin's more of an old-shoe-already like Virani than ‘eternally useless’ like Dzerowicz.
07/07/21 Toronto Wanderer
Even though the Liberals are heading towards a majority government, NDP numbers are hovering around 20% nationally and the NDP polling at or above that number in Ontario. I think this has a strong chance of flipping back to the NDP. Julie Dabruisin has been a rather uninspiring backbench Liberal MP.
13/06/21 Stevo
I feel confident in predicting that the Liberals will not sweep every 416 seat for a third election in a row. Housing affordability is likely to be the top issue in the upcoming vote. In a renter-heavy riding like this, very few people have benefited from all the gifts and interventions that the Liberals have showered on homeowners. This seat, perhaps one of 3-4 in the 416, will fall to the NDP.
24/05/21 seasaw
The Liberals will win this one again.
08/05/21 Chris N
Many predicted that Toronto Danforth would go back to the NDP in 2019, but the Liberals held it by more than 10%. If the Liberals start to drop in the polls, the NDP will be more competitive. At this time, the riding is leaning Liberal.

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