|I’ve been pretty quiet on this riding, as I have been waiting to see the overall trend. However I have to concur that I think it will flip to the NDP. The CPC is polling down compared to 2019 by a fair bit (my estimates say about 15 points but I’m not so sure about that). With the NDP up by a handful of points, these two factors should be enough to turn this seat orange.|
|NDP pick up. NDP is doing slightly better than 2019, PPC is hold well in the prairies and the CPC is not quite at 2019 levels of strength in the prairies.|
|Not a local comment. However PPC are at 7% on the Prairies per 338 - you have to imagine that this is mainly coming from Conservative voters. With an Ontario and not SK Conservative leader, and a higher NDP vote, suspect that all this combined could be enough to give the NDP the edge here.|
|Brad Redekopp was first elected here in 2019 when he beat 1 term ndp mp Sheri Benson who isn’t running again this election and replaced by a new candidate Robert Doucette. 2015 was the first election the riding existed in these new boundaries which were seen as more favourable to the ndp as they only included city of Saskatoon polls. But the cpc still managed to find a way to win here in 2019 by a fairly large margin. Has Singh actually campaigned in Saskatoon not sure he’s even been here yet. So perhaps more of a local ndp target than a national one but regional sask polls still have the cpc doing well in Saskatchewan.|
|The most recent polling has a massive CPC-> PPC swing of around 4 points in the prairies from the last 4 days, and given that minor party surges tend to be self propagating I expect this to continue. Unlike in BC and elsewhere where a not insignificant amount of PPC growth appears to be coming from young NDP voters, the SK swing is almost entirely from the Conservatives, with the NDP actually joining in gobbling Conservative support. This was already a close riding, the Conservatives simply can't afford an implosion like that and still win here. Maybe give it a few days to make sure the trendline is actually persistent to call it on the website, but with current numbers and trends, the NDP should win here, and it shouldn't be especially close either if the polls are remotely correct. This would have been an NDP riding throughout the 2000s and 2010s were it not for the rural-urban gerrymandering, this area has such strong NDP roots that you can practically make out the riding boundaries back to the mid-1990s just by looking for the polls that went NDP. Expect this election to be a return to normal.|
|The NDP can win this with a ground game. But the snap election is too short and in the middle of the summer, make a ground game hard to create.|
Furthermore, the NDP not being the incumbent makes it hard for them to win. Look for LPC to double vote onaccount that the NDP arent the incumbents.
I call it CPC hold.
|This is the only possible hope for the NDP, however, they think that their man is high profile, but such is not the case. Only known for getting the boot from provincial Metis leadership. My gut says incumbent PC likely to return.|
|If there is one seat in Saskatoon that the NDP hopes to pick, it'd be Saskatoon West.|
As mentioned below, recent riding poll from a few days ago shows a practical tie between CPC and NDP. There's also a good chance that the PPC plays a factor if it's a close run. Will be an interesting one to watch.
|This is definitely TCTC. A Mainstreet riding poll released has a statistically insignificant 0.2% lead for the NDP: https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/SaskatoonWest-iPolitics-26August2021.pdf|
|Mainstreet riding poll has the Conservatives and NDP tied here, 33 to 33 (removing the undecideds). I endorse the TCTC rating for now!|
|According to a new Mainstreet riding poll, the NDP & the Conservatives are tied in Saskatoon West:|
|The reason why the last redistribution lends an impression of not-much-improving NDP performance is because the Prairies became so sectionally Conservative and that trend reached its peak under Andrew Scheer--plus, throw in provincial Sask Party rule and NDP doldrums, and the federal Dippers' own struggles going into '19, and the deck truly was stacked. Under that circumstance, that Sheri Benson would have increased her share in defeat was a near-miracle, And it is why Saskatoon West is still in play as the NDP's top urban-Sask target. Though when it comes to ‘too elite’ perceptions, maybe a warning came in the form of the provincial Saskatoon-Riversdale--the onetime bastion of premiers Romanow and Calvert--falling to the Sask Party last election...|
|This is the CPC's seat to lose. The incumbent has had time to impact people in a positive manner enough to have a base of support independent of party politics. Even though the CPC supported the Trudeau liberals earlier in the last session, the NDP are the most recent to do so and the media is mostly ignoring the former for the latter, so the blame on the existence of the Trudeau government is so far successfully being placed (and deservedly so) on Singh's NDP.|
Combined with bizarro world saskatchewan COVID_19 politics, the CPC have to do something really big to screw up. The wild card will be how well the PPC does, and how much of the NDP/CPC support they nibble away.
|The Liberal vote collapsed in 2019 vs 2015 (which is the story throughout Western Canada), but that vote migrated to the Conservatives rather than to the NDP. So in predicting this seat, the Liberal share in SK is one of the most important factors. I'm inclined to think that even without a hometown Sask boy as leader, the CPC is favoured to win by a hair. Interesting to note that although the infamous ‘urban-rural’ Saskatchewan seats were mostly eliminated in 2015 to produce more purely urban Saskatoon/Regina seats, it hasn't much improved NDP fortunes in the province.|
| 338 has the NDP with a slight lead....at least a Toss up|
|This one could be competitive - the CPC win here is very possibly a blip from a Scheer Saskatchewan boost and general backlash against the Liberals and NDP in the prairies.|
|The NDP comes across as too elite for the time being to have a chance at regaining prominence in Western Canada. The Liberals are obviously irrelevant here. Conservative hold.|