Election Prediction Project

Peace River-Westlock
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:06:37

Constituency Profile


Boisson, Darryl

Krieger, Colin

MacDougall, Jordan Francis

Penny, Leslie

Ungstad, Gail

Viersen, Arnold


Arnold Viersen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



107085.59 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Arnold Viersen ** 4165980.70%
Jennifer Villebrun 38867.50%
Leslie Penny 31486.10%
John Schrader 15793.10%
Peter Nygaard 13772.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Arnold Viersen 3434269.40%
Cameron Alexis 712714.40%
Chris Brown 636012.80%
Sabrina Lee Levac 12472.50%
Jeremy Sergeew 4430.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6161.65%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Peace River
   (40.88% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (25.8% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fort McMurray-Athabasca
   (21.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Westlock-St. Paul
   (12.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

23/08/21 A.S.
Incredibly, the Metis and FN settlement (the sort that made the provincial Lesser Slave Lake the closest Albertan approach to those walls of aboriginal NDP support that define northern ManSask) didn't prevent Viersen from hitting the 80% post--then again, this is that N Albertan ‘Maverick at closer range than usual’ country. (Meanwhile, the La Crete Mennonites were somewhat *less* monolithic in '19 than in '15--but it's because PPC took a token point off their support. Thus 95% rather than 96%, and 98% rather than 99% w/o the 2 weaker central polls.)
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural Alberta seat so safe CPC for now unless Mavericks/PPC start making momentum.
05/05/21 JW
As has been noted in previous election pages, Quadra is the only riding west of Ontario that has consistently elected Liberal MPs since the 80s. The Conservatives has made a number of serious bids to target the riding, almost succeeding in the 2008 byelection. However, the resilient presence of progressive voters in the riding (as evident by the election of NDP Attorney General David Eby) will likely give Joyce Murray an edge again.

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