Election Prediction Project

Burnaby North-Seymour
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:57:54

Constituency Profile


Beech, Terry

Hanson, Jim

Shein, Kelsey


Terry Beech

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



114.61 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Terry Beech ** 1777035.50%
Svend Robinson 1618532.30%
Heather Leung 973419.40%
Amita Kuttner 48019.60%
Rocky Dong 10792.20%
Robert Taylor 2710.50%
Lewis Clarke Dahlby 2190.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Terry Beech 1893836.10%
Carol Baird Ellan 1553729.60%
Mike Little 1461227.80%
Lynne Quarmby 27655.30%
Chris Tylor 2520.50%
Helen Hee Soon Chang 2070.40%
Brent Jantzen 1260.20%
Brian Sproule 430.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4381.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (75.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   North Vancouver
   (24.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

02/08/20 Thomas K
This was a very interesting riding to follow last time, and this time around I think it is too early to predict a winner here. The Kinder Morgan pipeline terminal is in this riding, on the North Burnaby shore. Both portions of this riding are quite anti-TMX, even the North shore area, as it is quite a wooded area and relatively separated from the weird Lonsdale/Westvan mindset. Heather Leung also changed up the dynamic, which probably benefited the Liberals by a tiny margin, since the Conservatives here are more small c. Svend Robinson would not have been appealing to the small c conservatives.
However, in 2021, the dynamic of this riding hinges on what the major campaign issues are going to be. I kind of doubt that Kinder Morgan is going be front and centre on the national radar again, but if climate change turns out to be a prime issues of 2021 again, then that would be highly beneficial for the NDP in this riding. In addition, if the Conservatives nominate a moderate candidate who isn't egregiously offensive like Leung, then the NDP will probably benefit from that as well.
While I think the latter is likely, it appears that the 2021 campaign is going to be focused on the economy, which is a more difficult cause for the NDP to harness support from, though if Singh is able to make some kind of effective national message on the matter, they may have the edge in this riding.
Realistically, the conservatives are not competitive here, and the Green collapse will benefit the NDP.
Will have to wait and see the direction of the election issues before being able to predict a clear victor.
31/07/20 Stevo
With Singh riding high in voter approval and the NDP solidifying around 20% nationally, they will pick up seats. This is very low-hanging fruit and should flip.
20/05/21 MF
The NDP has nominated North Van councillor Jim Hanson. In the last election Svend Robinson was able to win North Burnaby, territory he had represented in Parliament and an area of traditional NDP strength, but lost on the Seymour side. With Hanson, will the NDP be able to close the gap? This will be an interesting race to watch, marking TCTC for now.

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