Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:32:42

Constituency Profile


Dean, Monika

Pan, Hong Yan

Qualtrough, Carla

Shearer, Garry

Smith, Jeremy

Tarasenko, Paul


Carla Qualtrough

References: 59012-Fleetwood-Port Kells
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



187.31 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Carla Qualtrough ** 2225741.20%
Tanya Corbet 1780933.00%
Randy Anderson-Fennell 879216.30%
Craig DeCraene 33876.30%
Angelina Ireland 9481.80%
Amarit Bains 3980.70%
Tony Bennett 3850.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carla Qualtrough 2735549.10%
Kerry-Lynne Findlay ** 1825532.80%
Jeremy Leveque 831114.90%
Anthony Edward Devellano 17683.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3070.67%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Newton-North Delta
   (53.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Delta-Richmond East
   (46.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

16/09/21 Physastr Master
Finally, my BC predicting spree has reached my home riding! To my shock, the Liberals are holding up incredibly well in BC, and there actually appears to be a possible net movement back to the Liberals instead! Given South Delta's independent streak the PPC might even notch a surprise overperformance here, making the Liberals even safer. I think this is a fairly safe call at this stage. Liberal hold.
13/09/21 R.O.
the Delta portion of this riding has a long history of being conservative, but back in 2015 the riding was realigned and gained a large portion of the newton north delta riding which was more liberal/ndp. Carla Qualtrough was first elected here in 2015 which was likely the first time Delta riding had ever been liberal. the cpc has a new candidate this election Garry Shearer who has deep roots in the riding but not well known in Ottawa. The ndp have a new candidate Monika Dean and is also a green candidate unlike some others bc swing ridings which don’t have one. Still a tough one to predict as things stand now
12/09/20 Dr Bear
CPC down four points relative to 2019 while Liberals are holding. A reasonably strong incumbent means this is staying red.
01/09/21 Physastr Master
I think this is very premature. It's my home riding, and a bit of an odd one, being split between North Delta, which is demographically similar to but slightly more right-wing than Surrey North, i.e. generally a left-leaning working class area that the Cons can compete in during a good year. Then there's South Delta, which is a bit of an anomaly, in that it is much more agricultural and has a habit of local issue dominance, with issues including the SFPR electing the independent (but right-leaning) Vicki Huntington multiple times provincially, and then in 2020 being possibly the only Lower Mainland riding that did not see a massive NDP surge mainly due to debate about the Massey Tunnel replacement. Due to its independent history the region is not as dogmatically partisan as the Fraser Valley ridings, so I think it could swing hard in any direction with a targeted campaign, but the NDP is not well situated due to the provincial party's lack of popularity here. That said, this does seem like a naturally Conservative area, and looking at the history of the area you have to go back nearly two decades pre-2015 to find more than one poll in South Delta going Liberal. While North Delta is absorbed into the Vancouver metroplex through Surrey, South Delta remains disconnected both physically and ideologically, so I think it's immune to ‘GTA-ization’ claims. After all, it voted strongly for the right-wing party during the biggest NDP win in the province's history that saw places like Langley act left-wing. Without these demographic trends, provincial trends take over, which are strongly to the CPC in a riding half-covered by a region with strong right-of-centre roots. TCTC.
31/08/21 R.O.
Is a new mainstreet riding poll that shows conservative candidate Garry Shearer leading with 38% to Qualtrough at 35 % , riding is clearly a race this election
26/08/21 Nick M.
Officially TCTC by CPC at start of campaign, Erin wouldn’t have campaigned here if he thought it was safe LPC seat.
If current provincial polls for this election hold up, I say CPC pickup.
25/08/21 A.S.
Due to the S Asian continuum from Surrey, North Delta is a lot of what explains current Liberal dominance--albeit at this point, less through raw Lib strength per se than through CPC weakness; in fact, the Libs got a marginally *lower* total share in North Delta than in the rest of the riding! (Though that includes southward Con-leaning territory like Sunshine Hills.) And a lot of the balance of explanation is how little that's *E* Asian has crossed the George Massey Tunnel--that is, even w/whatever level of Con support that already exists, Ladner + Tsawwassen haven't ‘Richmondified’. (Though for the heck of it, I wonder what international pandemic politics will mean at the polling booth out Point Roberts way.)
11/08/21 MF
Carla Qualtrough's 2015 victory was no fluke - the GTA-ization of Metro Vancouver is underway with the Tories being driven out of the suburbs.. This being the Left Coast however the NDP and Greens are stronger. As was typical across the region the Liberal vote dropped and went NDP and Green; the CPC vote stayed flat.
30/06/21 Negative Inference
We all thought Qualtrough would have a tough time holding on last time. While her margin reduced, she held on to the seat with comfortable margin. Her quiet competence as a minister with portfolio of increasing importance has been getting more coverage as the years went by, which can only help locally.
Delta is increasingly become a community where younger families (who cannot afford to live in Vancouver and its immediately surrounding cities) move to, a demographic shift which benefits the Liberals. Likely still too early to call, but as long as the Liberals finish the race with half-decent results, Qualtrough should hang on.

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