Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:16:17

Constituency Profile


Manly, Paul


Paul Manly

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1728.28 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Paul Manly ** 2484434.60%
John Hirst 1863425.90%
Bob Chamberlin 1698523.60%
Michelle Corfield 973513.50%
Jennifer Clarke 10491.50%
Geoff Stoneman 2350.30%
Brian Marlatt 2070.30%
James Chumsa 1040.10%
Echo White 710.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sheila Malcolmson 2365133.20%
Tim Tessier 1675323.50%
Mark Allen MacDonald 1663723.40%
Paul Manly 1407419.80%
Jack East 1260.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2750.49%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (55.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (44.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

03/08/20 prognosticator15
CPC is highly unlikely to win anything on Vancouver Island and (with possible exception of North Island) the whole island is an abandoned area for them. They are unlikely to spend resources where politics has become a competition of progressivist taxpayer-funded interests, of who forces business and others better to serve their agenda. LPC also seems to abandon the area to the far left, and coordination between the Green (who would be Liberal-friendly voters elsewhere) and the NDP supporters is an established pattern here. With NDP in a much stronger position nationally, provincially and locally, and Greens having no momentum of 2019, Manly's incumbency may not be enough to prevent potential sweep of the island by the NDP, with only Saanich being competitive due to May entrenching her personal fiefdom in that area. Saanich excepting, everything Green shifts elsewhere in 2021 election (if called), to LPC in Fredericton and to NDP in Nanaimo.
01/08/20 Sam
Rather surprised to see this still listed as a Green riding rather than TCTC. Paul Manly only won with 35% of the vote last time, and given the party's internal turmoil and his role in it, he has lost credibility. If the NDP's poll numbers do translate to votes - far from guaranteed - my money's on them to take it. I don't see the second-placed Conservatives as having that chance.
30/07/20 KXS
With the current state of the Green Party, this riding will likely return to the NDP.
27/07/20 Dr Bear
Given the current Gong Show set in a dumpster fire next to a train wreck that is the current Green Party, this seat is definitely TCTC. If the NDP get a good candidate, then they will retake this seat for sure. A mediocre candidate (or a mediocre campaign by the NDP) could even see a vote split, allowing the CPC to come up the middle (unlikely with current CPC polling but things could change).
21/07/20 Thomas K
I think this is too early to call--it would be a mistake to characterize this as a Green stronghold. When considering the current turmoil the Green party is enduring, and Paul Manly's relative proximity to the turmoil, this could be interesting to watch. Manly was kicked from the NDP over the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the Green party's conflict seems to be bizarrely centered on Israel, which could easily associate Manly with the Green conflict, which is not a particularly flattering nor electable look right now.
He won by 35% last time, it could be close between the NDP and the Greens.
01/07/21 Libby Burgundy
I have to say, I feel like people are counting this chicken before it hatches. With only 35% of the vote, even if the Greens win back every single voter they had last time, they are still very vulnerable to shifts in support between the other parties -- and with the turmoil at Green headquarters, I wouldn't take it for granted that their support will hold up.
Mind you, if Annamie Paul resigns and Elizabeth May takes over to lead the party through the election, Manly's odds will improve considerably.
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
Paul Manly se représente. Dans une lutte à 3 ou 4, comme c'est habituellement le cas sur l'île de Vancouver, le député sortant possède un avantage. Des sites comme Canada338 et Tooclosetocall le donnent gagnant par une marge similaire à 2019. Victoire des Verts ici.

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