Arnold, Mel
	Delfing, Kyle
	Desautels, Shelley
	Gunner, Andrea
	Johnston, Ron
Incumbent:
	Mel Arnold

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			124605 121474 63972 53626 16173.61 km² 7.70/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Mel Arnold **	36154	48.80%
	Cindy Derkaz	16783	22.60%
	Harwinder Sandhu	11353	15.30%
	Marc Reinarz	7828	10.60%
	Kyle Delfing	2027	2.70%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Mel Arnold	27490	39.30%
	Cindy Derkaz	20949	29.90%
	Jacqui Gingras	17907	25.60%
	Chris George	3608	5.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		31510	55.36%
		15075	26.48%
		4251	7.47%
		6081	10.68%
Other		4	0.01%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Okanagan-Shuswap    (99.66% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Kootenay-Columbia    (0.34% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	19/09/21	Dr Bear 216.154.38.184
I was very recently in this riding and what struck me was the level of visible PPC support. While I don’t think it will affect the final outcome, I suspect a lower CPC total and PPC possibly coming in third.
	06/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Mel Arnold was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. Rural riding in BC interior that has been conservative for some time.
	25/08/21	A.S. 45.41.168.91
I might have no-predictioned this were Jay Hill the Maverick candidate--which would have been my *only* such no-prediction bowing on behalf of Maverick--and it'd be interesting to see them dominating the polls around Dawson Creek/Fort St John, though it's likely that Prince George would cancel that out. (Major urban resource towns aren't terribly Wexitty places.)
	23/08/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
While historically an area of NDP strength in BC, the Shuswap and its aged population has shifted towards the Conservatives. Safe CPC.
	04/06/21	Libby Burgundy 198.91.168.152
The Conservatives held onto this seat even as the Liberals managed a regional breakthrough in 2015, and they got more than twice as many votes as the second-place party in 2019. While this seat isn't nearly as secure as some of its neighbours, absent compelling indications to the contrary, we should be assuming the trendline will continue.