Election Prediction Project

North Okanagan-Shuswap
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:58:10

Constituency Profile


Arnold, Mel

Delfing, Kyle

Desautels, Shelley

Gunner, Andrea

Johnston, Ron


Mel Arnold

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16173.61 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mel Arnold ** 3615448.80%
Cindy Derkaz 1678322.60%
Harwinder Sandhu 1135315.30%
Marc Reinarz 782810.60%
Kyle Delfing 20272.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mel Arnold 2749039.30%
Cindy Derkaz 2094929.90%
Jacqui Gingras 1790725.60%
Chris George 36085.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 40.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.34% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 Dr Bear
I was very recently in this riding and what struck me was the level of visible PPC support. While I don’t think it will affect the final outcome, I suspect a lower CPC total and PPC possibly coming in third.
06/09/21 R.O.
Mel Arnold was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. Rural riding in BC interior that has been conservative for some time.
25/08/21 A.S.
I might have no-predictioned this were Jay Hill the Maverick candidate--which would have been my *only* such no-prediction bowing on behalf of Maverick--and it'd be interesting to see them dominating the polls around Dawson Creek/Fort St John, though it's likely that Prince George would cancel that out. (Major urban resource towns aren't terribly Wexitty places.)
23/08/21 Thomas K
While historically an area of NDP strength in BC, the Shuswap and its aged population has shifted towards the Conservatives. Safe CPC.
04/06/21 Libby Burgundy
The Conservatives held onto this seat even as the Liberals managed a regional breakthrough in 2015, and they got more than twice as many votes as the second-place party in 2019. While this seat isn't nearly as secure as some of its neighbours, absent compelling indications to the contrary, we should be assuming the trendline will continue.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster