|This was fun while it lasted, but time to be realistic. The non-NDP vote is very rich, and will not vote PPC. Since the Conservatives' recent losses are mainly to the PPC expect the WVSCSTSC Conservative vote to behave like the PPC never existed. The NDP/Green vote is very hippy, which can include antivax types, which have potential for PPC voting. So we've got a left potentially plagued by a PPC surge, and a rock-solid completely immovable right. O'Toole is also pretty moderate, so in in an elitist place like West Van he removes the cultural reservations against the Conservatives that prevent the riding from sweeping their way. The Liberals can then take losses from Avi Lewis to an extent sufficient to make them lose. Everything needed to go right for Avi to win, but something has now gone wrong, so I think conservative is the call here, although I don't rule out the Liberals holding on.|
|Mainstreet has published/conducted a 2nd riding poll for this riding with a really long name. :-)|
It shows the CPC lead has grown substantially. This is a BC seat that could very well flip on election day.
|People have rightly been wondering how a riding involving West Vancouver might go NDP, and whether that's mathematically possible. Here's how:|
1. Start with current polling aggregators. From 338: 32 LIB, 30 CON, 21 NDP, 12 GRN -> This is similar to 2019, but with an ~3-point swing Lib-Con and the Greens and NDP more or less trading places. This can all happen without West Van votes
2. Add Avi bonuses. Let's start with saying half of remaining green voters flip NDP, which seems fairly realistic given the consolidation of environmentalist voices behind Avi and the riding's history of decisive voting on environmental issues after the greens nearly winning in the BC election -> 32 LIB, 30 CON, 27 NDP, 6 GRN
3. Add in swings from Climate change-driven Liberal voters. Exclude West Van, which doesn't have these, we're left with ~40% of Liberal voters, and let's say we have a 10-point swing among them, so a 4% swing riding-wide. Again a fairly realistic swing, given how many liberals especially in Squamish are already NDP-friendly
We get 28 LIB, 30 CON, 31 NDP, 6 GRN, and all without touching West Van vote totals. The reason an NDP win is possible is because the rich people in West Van have two excellent options, whereas people that care about climate change really only have one, and they dominate the rest of the riding. The Liberals talk about taxing the rich, but the wealthy are surely comfortable by now at his lack of action. All that said, I'm still expecting a blanket Liberal collapse pre-election, which makes me think a Conservative call here may be inevitable. That said, as of now, everything is going right for Avi, so this remains TCTC.
|Based on recent polling, this is a CPC pick up. NDP has never been strong in this riding, and the Liberals have lost some support around here, so the seat will go to CPC|
|The NDP predictions here are shocking to me, so I'll reiterate: West Vancouver is a literal death zone for the NDP. The Green voters in West Vancouver will NOT vote NDP--they own multimillion dollar houses in the British Properties and hold socially liberal views as long as it doesn't offend their economically elite interests. They will probably actually vote relatively evenly between the Liberals and Conservatives for these reasons, perhaps even with an edge for the Conservatives, with the NDP eating up a clear minority of the Green vote from the ‘Sunshine Coast’ Vancouver Island-ish voters. Avi Lewis is generally charismatic and there's no doubt he will increase the NDP numbers and launch the party into third place, but it's basically mathematically impossible for the NDP to win here when there are polls in West Vancouver (which makes up over 50% of the population of the riding) where the NDP registers some 2% of votes, straggling amongst the fringe parties.|
|This is either Con or Liberal. Avi Lewis would have had a chance in North Van-Burnaby or one of the Vancouver city ridings but not here, and he knows it. He could pull enough Lib votes to elect the Conservative, however.|
|This riding will depend on how much of a draw Avi Lewis is to Green voters. In a year where the Liberals are down, the Greens in a meltdown with the previous candidate not returning (unlike Kitchener Centre), I like Lewis' chances.|
|Somewhat of an odd race here , Patrick Weiller is the incumbent but only elected once in 2019. Conservative candidate John Weston has also been mp of the riding in 2008-11 elections. It had also been a strong green riding in the past but one has to wonder how much they’ll hold this year. Then you have Avi Lewis running for the ndp in a riding that has never been ndp in recent memory or have they even come close to winning. So you have 4 different parties who feel they have potential in the riding and at this point its unclear who has the advantage.|
|Rich people love Liberal policies, unless it negatively affects them. |
Trudeau promising to raise taxes on a large voting block in West Vancouver and O’Tooles whistle stop, makes me think this is a Conservative pickup.
|David Suzuki is campaigning for Avi Lewis and the NDP in the riding. That, plus the omnishambles the Green Party is clearly in, should make it pretty easy for a lot of the Green vote to switch over. Plus Liberal doldrums. Seems like an NDP pickup to me.|
|The selection of Avi Lewis as the NDP candidate will likely take some votes away from both the Liberals and Greens. This will allow the Conservative to come up the middle and they have held this riding before so a victory here is not out of the question.|
|Whoa, that Mainstreet poll is weirdly favorable to the NDP given how unfavorable those Mainstreet riding polls often are... It might be an anomaly, but it's interesting nonetheless. I'm not sure I buy that the NDP are in a great place here, but a breakdown of the riding might help, as this is one of those Frankenstein ridings where the components have no business being grouped together. |
Sunshine Coast: Split 3-way NDP-Green-Liberal last election, NDP stronger in Gibsons, Liberals in Sechelt, and Greens in the towns between. Very hippy-type area, expect votes to only trade hands between those three. Conservatives not a huge factor, but won a few polls.
Sea to Sky: Liberal-Green battle ground last election, with Liberals dominating Whistler and Greens stronger elsewhere. Oddly Squamish was also a Green-Liberal battle ground, despite the fact that Squamish is one of those union-resource towns prime for NDP strength, similar to Powell River, but with a bit more of a touristy bent. Provincially, the NDP won Squamish in 2017 and in 2020 it contained some of the only polls in the region that didn't go green during a very good Green campaign. That town alone is also 1/4 of the entire riding, so a shift in Squamish matters.
West Vancouver: The only reason this riding often votes right of centre, probably the richest place in Canada, so obviously this is not NDP or green friendly, only the bougie parties play here, except for the Capilano reservation which is an NDP stronghold. This area can sweep hard Conservative in a surge, which is what happened during the Harper era, and it's about half the riding. It's uniquely hostile to the NDP, and there are polls here containing hundreds of people and zero, yes, ZERO NDP votes. Don't expect that to change much
What does this all mean?
- If West Van consolidates behind the Cons or Liberals, that party will win. Probably above ~33% province-wide for either the Liberals or Cons will do that, so that has to be avoided to make this interesting. Yes Avi plays badly in West Van, but it was so bad to begin with I'm honestly not sure it matters much. Can't kill what's already dead. The best the NDP can hope for is a soft conservative win to prevent anyone from building an insurmountable lead here.
- The Sunshine coast looked more normal last election, so it'll be subject to provincial trends but probably won't see big swings. I think Avi's effect here will be pretty neutral. It's mainly just a votes reservoir to give the non-bougie parties a chance.
- Squamish is the key to Avi's victory. It's the one place where he genuinely will play very well, and I can see it sweeping NDP in a good campaign. Enough to offset West Van? Tough, but maybe with the help of the sunshine coast. There were a lot of green votes here that probably won't stay green given their current weaker state, and in Squamish the NDP are the natural beneficiary.
What does this all mean? No clue, honestly. Cons or Libs are the easy answer with no strong preference either way, but if the NDP hits that 33-ish % mark in BC they can win too with Avi rallying the troops in Squamish. The greens seem better poised here given that they nearly won a similar riding in 2020 provincially but that's only possible if their campaign essentially raises from the dead. If Avi does do well in Squamish though that could play spoiler for the greens even if they get their campaign going. Lots of NDPers can become greens and vice versa with a bit of strategic voting, so there not being a strategic choice dooms this riding to LPC or CPC representation. Regardless, it's way to early to draw judgement on what's going to happen there, so definitely too early to call
|‘Lucky to come third’ is pushing it re Avi's non-chances, particularly given the present state of the Greens; and if Avi isn't a good big-tent ‘fit’ for the riding, who, in the NDP camp, is? (Answer: probably nobody. And if anything, Avi's profile *does* give him a certain high-thinking establishment cachet that could at least *inch* toward an ‘Oak Bay-Gordon Head’ kind of palatability among *some* of the West Van crowd. And Avi probably knows it.) Of course, in the end, this could all be but a test run for something like, say, Van Centre post-Queen Hedy--but *nobody* knows ground-crew potential-exploration like the Lewis family, so I wouldn't dismiss his run even in the event of certain defeat. Of course, it could all wind up electing John Weston and back we go to the old ‘this is why you shouldn't split the left’, etc...|
|I think which party is ahead in the BC regional portion of the national polls come Election Day, will be the winner.|
Slight edge to the Liberals, but the national campaign right now isn’t doing so well.
|At the moment I can not see anything but a Liberal win here, however it would be a â€کsoft winâ€™. Any sort of increased support for the CPC and we could see it going blue, especially with the former MP as candidate. What will not happen is an NDP win, star candidate or not. This not a place that sways NDP to begin with, and (as mentioned by others) the candidate is not a particularly good fit. I say Liberal hold.|
|Mainstreet riding poll:|
23% Liberal, 27.5% Conservative, 19.4% NDP. 12% Green. 14% undecided.
Seems very up for grabs!
|Liberal vote collapsed a whopping 20 points in 2019 vs 2015. I doubt Avi Lewis's NDP candidacy will be any more impactful than Svend Robinson's, but perhaps enough to play spoiler?|
|Avi Lewis really is brilliant - he's going to get to run a high profile campaign which he and his wife can use as a soapbox to promote their views without any danger whatsoever that he'll actually be elected and be forced to commute back and forth to Ottawa as a run-of-the-mill nobody MP. |
I'm sure he'll take a lot of pleasure sticking it right to the constituents of one of the wealthiest ridings in Canada. If I were him, I imagine this campaign would be a lot of fun. But that's all it will be. He would be lucky to come third.
I'd say the Liberals have a weak lead at present. John Weston should be able to mount a good campaign but given Conservative fortunes here of late he'll need to catch a few breaks and O'Toole will have to run a great campaign, neither of which is certain right now.
|This is a race between the Liberals and NDP. There is no chance that the Conservatives nor Greens would win this seat in the current political climate. |
The NDP is polling well in BC, Avi Lewis is a star candidate and could likely pull in people that voted in Green in 2019. Still the Liberals hold this seat and have some structural advantages that could allow them to get re-elected here.
|Most polls are showing Conservative vote down in BC from the last election so there is little to no chance of the Conservatives winning this seat if the election is held soon. With their star candidate, the NDP has an outside chance of winning the riding, but I still would bet on the Liberals holding on to this riding.|
|Astonished at the NDP predictions here. The NDP is practically anathema to West Vancouver which constitutes roughly half of the riding; the other half would not be able to make up for that even if the NDP had a sudden surge in support from Avi Lewis. Even in the 2020 BC provincial election, the NDP at its peak was not competitive here--it was was Green vs Liberal. It is simply not possible for an organized labour party to win in West Vancouver, period. An Avi Lewis candidacy would only result in a surge in support if it is an area that has historically supported the NDP or the Labour movement, and that is not the case here--besides, he isn't even that well known. |
Liberal hold regardless of the MP, with the Conservatives in second--perhaps the NDP could make it to third, though the Greens won't be close behind.
|Don't bet on Avi Lewis even coming close to winning this seat. Avi's candidacy, might take away enough votes from the Liberals to enable the CPC to come up the middle, but then again it might not, he might do just as well as the last NDP candidate, in which case the Liberals will win|
|This could be a rare 4-way race. With Avi Lewis nominated as the NDP candidate, expect the NDP to pool significant resources into this race. Still, Lewis will have his work cut out for him, as the NDP only received 14% of votes here last election.|
|This riding is divided between West Van (Liberal/Tory) and the rest which is very anti-Conservative and has a strong Green bent. In the last election, the Liberal vote declined significantly (mostly to the Greens) but they had enough room to hold the seat; the Conservative vote share stayed pretty much the same at 27%. There's a strong ‘promiscuous progressive’ constituency in the riding. The candidacy of Avi Lewis will almost certainly set back the Greens. The Leap Manifesto has a certain ‘Left Coast’ radical-chic appeal that resonates among many in the riding. The Liberals have the edge I think, but I can see the NDP double their vote share. Patrick Weiler however is a very low-profile MP.|
|Avi Lewis is running for the NDP and will win|