Election Prediction Project

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:58:35

Constituency Profile


Weiler, Patrick

Weston, John


Patrick Weiler

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13008.19 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Patrick Weiler 2267334.90%
Gabrielle Loren 1735926.70%
Dana Taylor 1457922.40%
Judith Wilson 902713.90%
Robert Douglas Bebb 10101.60%
Gordon Jeffrey 1730.30%
Terry Grimwood 1590.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pam Goldsmith-Jones 3630054.60%
John Weston ** 1741126.20%
Larry Koopman 65549.90%
Ken Melamed 59078.90%
Robin Kehler 1800.30%
Carol-Lee Chapman 1060.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6791.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (94.79% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
   (5.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/07/20 Stevo
Liberal vote collapsed a whopping 20 points in 2019 vs 2015. I doubt Avi Lewis's NDP candidacy will be any more impactful than Svend Robinson's, but perhaps enough to play spoiler?
22/07/20 Laurence Putnam
Avi Lewis really is brilliant - he's going to get to run a high profile campaign which he and his wife can use as a soapbox to promote their views without any danger whatsoever that he'll actually be elected and be forced to commute back and forth to Ottawa as a run-of-the-mill nobody MP.
I'm sure he'll take a lot of pleasure sticking it right to the constituents of one of the wealthiest ridings in Canada. If I were him, I imagine this campaign would be a lot of fun. But that's all it will be. He would be lucky to come third.
I'd say the Liberals have a weak lead at present. John Weston should be able to mount a good campaign but given Conservative fortunes here of late he'll need to catch a few breaks and O'Toole will have to run a great campaign, neither of which is certain right now.
22/07/20 KXS
This is a race between the Liberals and NDP. There is no chance that the Conservatives nor Greens would win this seat in the current political climate.
The NDP is polling well in BC, Avi Lewis is a star candidate and could likely pull in people that voted in Green in 2019. Still the Liberals hold this seat and have some structural advantages that could allow them to get re-elected here.
22/07/20 Garth
Most polls are showing Conservative vote down in BC from the last election so there is little to no chance of the Conservatives winning this seat if the election is held soon. With their star candidate, the NDP has an outside chance of winning the riding, but I still would bet on the Liberals holding on to this riding.
21/07/20 Thomas K
Astonished at the NDP predictions here. The NDP is practically anathema to West Vancouver which constitutes roughly half of the riding; the other half would not be able to make up for that even if the NDP had a sudden surge in support from Avi Lewis. Even in the 2020 BC provincial election, the NDP at its peak was not competitive here--it was was Green vs Liberal. It is simply not possible for an organized labour party to win in West Vancouver, period. An Avi Lewis candidacy would only result in a surge in support if it is an area that has historically supported the NDP or the Labour movement, and that is not the case here--besides, he isn't even that well known.
Liberal hold regardless of the MP, with the Conservatives in second--perhaps the NDP could make it to third, though the Greens won't be close behind.
12/07/20 seasaw
Don't bet on Avi Lewis even coming close to winning this seat. Avi's candidacy, might take away enough votes from the Liberals to enable the CPC to come up the middle, but then again it might not, he might do just as well as the last NDP candidate, in which case the Liberals will win
27/05/21 Chris N
This could be a rare 4-way race. With Avi Lewis nominated as the NDP candidate, expect the NDP to pool significant resources into this race. Still, Lewis will have his work cut out for him, as the NDP only received 14% of votes here last election.
24/05/21 MF
This riding is divided between West Van (Liberal/Tory) and the rest which is very anti-Conservative and has a strong Green bent. In the last election, the Liberal vote declined significantly (mostly to the Greens) but they had enough room to hold the seat; the Conservative vote share stayed pretty much the same at 27%. There's a strong ‘promiscuous progressive’ constituency in the riding. The candidacy of Avi Lewis will almost certainly set back the Greens. The Leap Manifesto has a certain ‘Left Coast’ radical-chic appeal that resonates among many in the riding. The Liberals have the edge I think, but I can see the NDP double their vote share. Patrick Weiler however is a very low-profile MP.
18/05/21 ME
Avi Lewis is running for the NDP and will win

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