Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

York Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-03-31 11:05:00

Constituency Profile



Balaskas, Nick

Brown, Shelley

Chu, Frank

Dewdney, Mark

Isgandarov, Parviz

Kerzner, Michael

Lowney, Alison

Pincivero, Don

Poizner, Lionel Wayne

Roman Baber

Population (2016):

Population (2011):100277

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

14,556 48.12%
9,333 30.85%
4,953 16.37%
984 3.25%
OTHERS 425 1.40%
Total Transposed 30,250
      Component Riding(s)

York Centre
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Michael Levitt **
Rachel Willson
Andrea Vásquez Jiménez
Rebecca Wood

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Michael Levitt
Mark Adler **
Hal Berman
Constantine Kritsonis


30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Prior to the PC's winning here in 2018 the Liberals held this riding since the 90's.I think the PC's should win here again on June 2.
18/05/2022 R.O.
Updating my post, Roman Baber is running for cpc leader instead so this riding an open race, pcs won it by a large margin last time. Had been liberal in the past and if they had an incumbent might have a chance here but this election pcs are still doing well in suburban Toronto. So Michael Kerzner is likely to do well here , new liberal Shelley Brown isnt that well known and ndp also running a new candidate Frank Chu.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
This is normally a pretty safe Liberal seat. With PC turned independent Roman Barber not running, I think Shelley Brown of the Liberals will be able to return it to the natural state of things.
30/03/22 A.S.
Maybe this *should* be a Tory prediction, but for that weird 416 allowance. But when it comes to the Libs, remember that the reason why this stayed Lib through the Mike Harris era was because of Monte Kwinter's personal strength, and because Liberal was still the Jewish-electorate default option before the "orthodox pro-Israel" crowd migrated markedly to the right (remember that back then, the *federal* seat was typically 2/3 Lib or more). But by the time the latter happened, the 416 was in Deep McGuinty Liberal mode; and besides, Kwinter still had continuing constituency-pivoting personal pull among those who'd gone federally blue. Once he retired and once Wynne imploded, this was low-hanging Tory fruit. One'd assume that even in Roman Baber's absence, this'd be among the 3 or 4 416 seats most likely to stay within the PC fold (including Doug's own)--I mean, it's got the Jewishness at one end, and the blue-collar-ethnoburban "Ford Nationness" of Downsview at the other end. But, it *is* the 416, even if the Libs finished 3rd in '18 (but if they finish 3rd *now*, hoo boy).
26/03/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
With Baber unlikely to run as an independent, and the PCs running a fairly standard candidate you would expect from this riding, it seems that the natural conservative and ?€?Fordnation?€™ leanings of this riding should keep it conservatie
06/03/22 seasaw
This was always a Liberal riding even when the PC's were winning landslides. Last time it went PC for the first time, for 2 reasons, one was Doug Ford, who was personally popular and two the total Liberal implosion. This time while Doug Ford still remains somewhat personally popular, don't believe the Liberals will implode. That should be enough to put this back in the red column.
04/03/22 R.O.
Its unclear what the ridings current mpp Roman Baber is doing, its possible he might run federally I seem to recall reading that either way don?€™t see him being much of a factor as an independent. So likely race will be between new pc candidate Michael Kerzner and liberal Shelley Brown plus maybe the ndp whenever they find one.
25/05/21 Chris N
Incumbent MPP Roman Baber was kicked out of PC caucus for criticizing the government's COVID-19 response. No word yet on whether or not he will run again. As a freshman MPP, I don't think Baber would have the organization and resources to make a strong Independent run. Even if he runs as an Independent in 2022, I anticipate this will be a race between the Liberal and PC candidate.

Navigate to Ontario 2022 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2022 | www.electionprediction.org | Email Webmaster