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York Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:21:41
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Etienne, Joel

Saks, Ya'ara


Incumbent:

Ya'ara Saks

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

104319
100277

41609
39868

35.20 km²
2963.60/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Michael Levitt ** 2168050.20%
Rachel Willson 1585236.70%
Andrea Vásquez Jiménez 42519.80%
Rebecca Wood 14033.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michael Levitt 2013146.90%
Mark Adler ** 1889344.00%
Hal Berman 31487.30%
Constantine Kritsonis 7721.80%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1724948.53%
565015.90%
1181533.24%
8322.34%
Other 00.00%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   York Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Roman Baber 1843450.15%
Andrea Vásquez Jiménez 861723.44%
Ramon Estaris 786521.39%
Roma Lyon 8432.29%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1455648.12%
933330.85%
495316.37%
9843.25%
Other 4251.40%


28/07/20 A.S.
64.114.255.114
It should have been '19's likeliest CPC pickup in the 416; but then they had to nominate a Scheer-punchline of a blonde candidate w/anti-abortion views. Then in the byelection--which was overlooked in the concurrent hoopla over Annamie Paul in Toronto Centre--it's like all was *almost* forgiven. But it was a byelection w/a byelection-type turnout; and besides, the O'Toole leadership was in something of a sleeper ‘honeymoon period’. If O'Toole sought to project a viable, diverse ‘modern 416’ candidacy image, Etienne's the perfect candidate for a CPC-electable riding--that is, if the 416 has a taste for electing the federal Cons anymore. I'll withhold a prediction just in case; but if elected, Etienne could be awfully alone...
08/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
The CPC came very close to an upset in the recent by-election. The demographics of the riding are changing, including a growing a Filipino electorate which tend to be socially conservative. Surprisingly, the CPC candidate who ran in the by-election, Julius Tiangson, did not win the party nomination for this election, losing to newcomer Joel Etienne. This will be a close to race to watch.



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