Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-06-02 02:01:00

Constituency Profile



Alim, Farheen

Denning, Bill

Fairclough, Lee

Hogarth, Christine

Markovic, Mary

Naudziunas, Vitas

Yanuziello, Thomas

Christine Hogarth

Population (2016):

Population (2011):115437

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

22,916 47.59%
16,420 34.10%
6,032 12.53%
1,971 4.09%
OTHERS 817 1.70%
Total Transposed 48,157
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

James Maloney **
Barry O'Brien
Branko Gasperlin
Chris Caldwell
Jude Sulejmani
Janice Murray

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

James Maloney
Bernard Trottier **
Phil Trotter
Angela Salewsky
Liz White
Janice Murray


01/06/2022 JT
Liberals will win back this riding. The NDP have not won this riding since 1990. The Liberals have an exceptional candidate - the sort of person who political parties are rarely able to attract to run for public office. The Conservative incumbent in this riding is a bland nobody who has utterly failed to make a name for herself in this riding. A curious thing is happening with the sign campaign - an enormous number of houses that had Conservative signs on their lawn at the end of the first week of the campaign no longer have a sign. Could be grass cutting is to blame but I think it is something else. I think voters are increasingly understanding that the Liberal candidate is a remarkable person and that the Conservative incumbent is a dud with a very poor record.
02/06/2022 gmmsol
Christine Hogarth all the way. There is no way an OLP outsider has a chance here. Del Duca has had a poor campaign performance and hasn't connected with the voters. In fact he may not even get elected in his riding.
30/05/2022 seasaw
Christine Hogarth will get re-elected in this riding, why ? Firstly, she’s the incumbent, she lives in the riding, the Liberal candidate is a parachute candidate. Secondly, she’s got a pretty good record as an MPP. Thirdly, the polls show that though the Liberals have a slight edge in 416, it’s not enough of an edge for them to pick up ridings like this one. And lastly, the riding’s electoral history. Since 1990, with the exception of one by election, the riding’s been bellwether, and with the PC’s poised to win another term, this riding will also stay in the blue column
31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
For some reason, this is Horwath's last stop of the campaign, which signals they should get at least ~20% of the vote. I don't think the NDP is relying off very good quality internal polling though, but they should at least be non-dead here. NDP has put enough resources into this riding to keep the PC's in this seat though. The Liberal candidate is called a star for some reason(they directed a hospital in Kitchener?), frankly I thought they were going to bring a councilor or Milczyn or something like that back when I heard they were announcing a star candidate here. Liberals shouldn't get much of a boost in the polls from candidate alone.
31/05/2022 HDude
While I won't say that it's not entirely possible for the OLP to win here, the mathematics just don't add up. You have an incumbent Premier who is leading in all polls. And now an incumbent OPC MPP who is representing a riding which is in the suburb of the incumbent Premier who happens to also be very popular locally. Couple that with the fact that the OLP leader Del Duca has had a sub-par campaign performance who hasn't really resonated well with the average Joe and in fact may finish third before the ONDP. Calling this a potential OLP pickup isn't really making sense. Perhaps a TCTC would've been better. But as it stands, I think in a tossup, the OPC has the better odds here.
30/05/2022 Eric
If not a safe PC bet then 2:1 odds for the PCs ... this website is correctly predicting the PCs very close to or at a majority ... the last time that the province had a PC majority and what was now the Etobicoke Lakeshore riding went for some other party was for the NDP in 1971 ... 51 years ago ...
27/05/2022 R.O.
But have to look at the reality of this election , true this riding has been liberal previous but are the same winning conditions here this election ? I honestly don’t think so. We have Christine Hogarth a reasonably well liked pc incumbent and a pc premier from nearby Etobicoke North. a liberal leader who has failed to make inroads with voters and an ndp leader seen as having stayed too long. Then we have polls that show a pc lead province wide and a divided city of Toronto with the pc’s doing better in the suburbs and ndp/liberals fighting for the downtown core. Not saying the liberals couldn’t in theory win here just that it doesn’t seem to be happening this election.
26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I have the Liberals winning 2 of the 3 Don Valley seats and not winning 2 of the 3 Etobicoke seats. This is the Etobicoke seat I have them winning.
18/05/2022 CD
Might be a close call here if PCs remain strong, but the Liberal revival in polling especially in Toronto points to the Liberals l.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
The weakest PC seat in Etobicoke. It'll be close, but ultimately I think healthcare administrator Lee Fairclough of the Liberals will knock off incumbent PC Christine Hogarth.
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
The demographics of this area are changing. The Ukranian elders are making way for a lot of yuppies in and around New Toronto and Mimico and younger condo dwellers along Lakeshore. What does this mean for June 2? I'm not entirely confident, but I think the Liberals have a good shot.
06/04/22 R.O.
Christine Hogarth was first elected here in 2018 , not a high profile mpp but could see her gaining profile at queens park. riding seen as a swing riding as its flipped between parties for some time. Had been pc in the 90’s and in a 2013 by election when city councillor Doug Holyday briefly mpp. Etobicoke has also been ford nation and Doug Fords own riding isn’t far away. The liberals are running a new candidate Lee Fairclough a hospital executive but came in 3rd here in 2018 when Peter Milczyn mpp and he had been a long time city councillor for this area so well known in Etobicoke and would consider him a higher profile candidate. The ndp are running a new candidate Farheen Alim but be a challenge to come in second here again.
04/04/22 Etobicokian
The Liberals are nominating Lee Fairclough as a star candidate. Clearly they believe this is a winnable riding.
Christine Hogarth has performed well as an MPP and her moderate image is a good fit for the riding. However, Ford is not popular here and with a high-profile candidate the Liberals should be in a good position to win it back.
30/03/22 A.S.
One of the more surprisingly (and perhaps future-foretellingly?) interesting races of '18--the PCs winning in EtobiFord w/less than 40%, and the long-dormant NDP slipping up the middle for a strong 2nd. And as in so many of these cases, one wonders how many more people (including PC voters) might have opted for NDP had they known they had a chance--particularly given how compared to the old days of the blue-collar Lakeshore, this breakthrough seemed more suggestive of a Parkdale-High Park promiscuous-progressive Millennial-urbanizing dynamic hopping the Humber. Whether it holds is another question--particularly given the potentially one-shot "freshness" of that breakthrough, and the absence of any real federal echo in '19 or '21, and the possibility/likelihood of the Libs reasserting their claims to being the "rightful" opposition hereabouts, thus seizing up the works and pushing the PCs up the middle once again. Though in an ideal-to-the-anti-Ford-National world, they could plausibly push Hogarth down to 3rd, as well. (It's happened before to a local Tory incumbent, in '85.)
02/09/21 Sam
Not a bad performance at all from Christine Hogarth last time, but this is still Etobicoke Lakeshore, and it would only take the Conservatives to shed a few votes to one of the other parties for them to lose it - they'll have to continue to rack up votes in the Royal York Road area that secured the win last time, because it's hard to see them gain from the NDP elsewhere.
24/08/21 Sam
Whilst not considered a classic bellwether much about this riding last time spoke bellwether - Liberals falling to third in what should be an easy riding, the PCs getting in between the NDP and Liberals to take the seat. Of course the PCs could do that again, but it's very vulnerable. Don't count out the Liberals though.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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