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Begum, Doly |  |
Brideau, Cara |  |
Everatt, Barbara |  |
Mcnair, James |  |
Naus, Peter |  |
Parsons, Michelle |  |
Patel, Lisa |  |
Snider, Bret |
Incumbent:
 | Doly Begum |
Population (2016): | 110278 |
Population (2011): | 106733 |
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
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DOLY BEGUM |
19,835 | 45.66% |
|  |
GARY ELLIS |
13,565 | 31.22% |
|  |
LORENZO BERARDINETTI * |
8,228 | 18.94% |
|  |
DAVID DEL GRANDE |
1,174 | 2.70% |
|  |
ALLEN ATKINSON |
222 | 0.51% |
|  |
JAMES SPEIRS |
195 | 0.45% |
|  |
WILLIE LITTLE |
160 | 0.37% |
|  |
BOBBY TURLEY |
64 | 0.15% |
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
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|  |
18,123 | 49.93% |
|  |
7,611 | 20.97% |
|  |
8,555 | 23.57% |
|  |
1,476 | 4.07% |
| OTHERS |
530 | 1.46% |
| Total Transposed |
36,295 |
Component Riding(s) |
| Scarborough Southwest (93.49% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions |
| Scarborough-Guildwood (6.51% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions |
2021 Federal Election Prediction
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2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
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|  |
Bill Blair ** |
28,965 | 57.20% |
|  |
Kimberly Fawcett Smith |
10,502 | 20.70% |
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Keith McCrady |
7,865 | 15.50% |
|  |
Amanda Cain |
2,477 | 4.90% |
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Italo Eratostene |
590 | 1.20% |
|  |
Simon Luisi |
236 | 0.50% |
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
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Bill Blair |
25,586 | 52.50% |
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Dan Harris ** |
11,574 | 23.70% |
|  |
Roshan Nallaratnam |
10,347 | 21.20% |
|  |
Tommy Taylor |
1,259 | 2.60% |
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 | 31/05/2022 |
Chris N 154.6.27.44 |
I'm moving my initial prediction of "Too Close to Call" to the NDP. I suspect strategic voting is not as much of a phenomenon in inner-suburb-ethnoburb type ridings like Scarborough Southwest. As a result, I suspect Doly Begum's name recognition and incumbency will be just enough to keep this seat orange. |
 | 30/05/2022 |
Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105 |
With a Ford victory looking close to certain certain right now on June 2 certain seats that are in opposition now could come into play, this is 1 of them. I expect a close battle between the NDP and PC's but Doly should edge out the PC candidate. |
 | 19/05/2022 |
LongTimeReaderSecondTimeSubmitter 3.98.54.96 |
Not sure why, because she's been a good MPP and is a strong candidate, but Doly is falling way behind both the Liberals and Conservatives in signs, word of mouth, and my own personal "gut feel"... which I admit means very little :) I'm not sure who will win, but unless the NDP can turn this around (fingers crossed) it looks like it will be one of the other two. |
 | 17/05/2022 |
Not Non-Partisan 184.146.146.200 |
Bret Snider, who is a longtime columnist for the Bluffs Monitor, is a very good experienced candidate (he ran in Toronto Danforth a while back). He has a very professional campaign team led by former City Councillor Rob Davis. It isn’t surprising that Ipolitics, which has done the only polling I’ve seen here has Snider 5% ahead. With Ford on cruise control, ridings like Scarborough Southwest come into play. |
 | 05/05/2022 |
Ontario Voter 65.94.99.105 |
Doly Begum has been a strong local MPP for this area and has been relatively popular in the community. The NDP is running a very strong campaign so far in this area. They by far have the most signs in residential areas compared to the other parties. While it early in the campaign I think that if the polling numbers hold as they are today with the NDP and Liberals within a few points of each other in the mid 20s the NDP would still win this riding. |
 | 01/05/2022 |
R.O. 24.146.13.249 |
Its true this riding had a ndp mp federally in 2011 then riding went liberal in 2015 when Bill Blair first elected. But different circumstances , liberals had a celebrity leader and star candidate in this riding and were polling much higher in Ontario that year. Del Duca isn’t that well known and Ford has always been more popular in Scarborough than downtown Toronto. The provincial ndp also seems to have more staying power and held a lot of the seats they’ve won when mpp up for re election. Although not entirely clear what will happen here. pc’s have a new candidate Bret Snider but unable to find out much about him so wouldn’t appear they were focusing much on this riding. |
 | 28/04/22 |
LeftCoast 207.194.253.26 |
Doly Begum has impressed in her first term, but with flagging NDP poll numbers and the Liberals continually on the rise, I think she'll be swept out as well. |
 | 30/03/22 |
A.S. 99.225.52.35 |
I'm on the border; but this actually looks good for the NDP; Doly Begum did have riding history going for her, but she ran a powerhouse campaign that was an archetype of how '18's Orange Wave came to be, and she's been a powerhouse in caucus ever since in a way that shows she's in it for keeps. (Like most of Toronto's NDP representation, in fact--even in Jill Andrew situations where "for keeps" is a dicey proposition.) And frankly, compared to those NDP/Lib mutual-cancellation cases, this looks to be a case where the Libs and PCs are plausibly in mutual cancellation, instead. |
 | 20/03/22 |
R.O. 24.146.13.249 |
Doly Begum was first elected here in 2018 and beat long time liberal mpp Lorenzo Berardinetti that year. This riding has been ndp before so it wasn?¢â‚¬â„¢t a total surprise they won here , it went ndp federally in 2011 and Scarborough had ndp mpp?¢â‚¬â„¢s decades ago in 1990. But still somewhat of a swing riding it had been pc when they were in power in the 90?¢â‚¬â„¢s and flipped liberal in 2003 when they won. Unclear who the new pc candidate is and liberals running Lisa Patel. |
 | 03/10/21 |
Cal MacKinnon 72.39.155.140 |
As an organizer Begum has worked this riding. She has a big head start over anyone. She?¢â‚¬â„¢ll need a 3 way race, Andrea Horwath delivering one more time and the $. It?¢â‚¬â„¢s not hard to see it all come together. |
 | 10/07/21 |
Chris N 24.36.32.209 |
The NDP won this riding last election for the first time since 1990. Doly Begum is an impressive young MPP, but I anticipate she will have tougher competition in 2022 from both the Liberals and PCs. The Liberals and PCs have not yet nominated a candidate. |
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