Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
11:56 PM 11/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Bloy, Harry
Green Party
Chang, Helen H. S.
Clark, Jaynie

BLOY, Harry
(Approx. 65% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 20% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

LEE, Richard T.
Burnaby North
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 26 NDP Pickup
The coffee table chatter is that traditional liberal supporters are unmotivated and either looking to stay home - and in some cases throw their vote in a different direction. An example is Helen Chang the Green Party Candidate is Korean - a member of a community that is unimpressed with Bloy - she could garner a lot of vote parking on election day.
BCVOTER - the math says Bloy loses by 500 votes with the new boundaries based on 2005 results.
Prediction - New Democrat Jaynie Clark picks up the seat.
09 04 21 BC Voter
Clark the first serious candidate? I seem to remember meeting the NDP candidate and being called last election (nothing from the liberal, not even a call). This time around, nothing from anyone (though I suspect the ?pollster? that just called me was a liberal, the NDP don't have the money for that).
The polls this riding picked up from the Burnaby North riding are hard right and will push whatever advantage the NDP gains from the Edmonds polls.
09 04 20 NDP Pickup
Redistribution has changed the riding drastically. If the results from 2005 are any indication the NDP wins by 500 votes.
Bloy is a double edged sword - great backbencher because he says and does exactly as he is told - terrible candidate because he is incapable of inspiring anyone locally.
Clark is the first serious candidate the NDP has fielded in a long time in this area. Not only does she bring the ability to raise money and attract volunteers - the party will focus a lot of resources.
NDP pickup.
09 04 13
Despite Bloy's absolute non-presence in the riding between elections, he hasn't screwed up, and the NDP candidate isn't strong enough to unseat him. Another narrow victory for Bloy.
09 02 10 TAN
A must-win if the NDP want to stand a chance of winning the election. Can't imagine any prediction will be reliable until much closer to E-day, as I can see this one swinging much the same way as the province does on the whole.
09 02 01 smart voter
this seat could go either way by 300 votes, if the bc liberals lose government it will be because they lose seats like this one. Harry Bloy the incumbent is already campaigning but it will be a tough fight.

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