Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

West Nova

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:18:00

Constituency Profile


Barron, George

Johnson, Ross

Kerr, Greg

Thibault, Robert

Greg Kerr

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kings-hants (45/227 Polls)
  • west-nova (171/171 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 05 01 MB
    This riding should be at least TCTC. With Hurlburt's generator stunt, many people in this area are mad at conservatives and mad at NDP for cutting the ferry. Thibault has at least a decent shot, and was helped by Lib leader's ferry anouncement.
    11 05 01 Marc Moisan
    Still a close call, but I must change my prediction back to Conservative. Momentum is with Greg Kerr and the ferry announcement doesn't appear to have had to expected effect.
    11 04 29 CGH
    This one should be TCTC. If you are not from southwestern Nova Scotia you may not fully understand how much of an impact this ferry is having on the people here. The Liberals announcement was a big deal and makes me feel there is a lean towards the Libs.
    11 04 25 R.O.
    Greg Kerr is likely to hold this riding as liberal numbers continue to weaken nationally , this historically is a swing riding and be doubtful it swing back to liberals during a bad year for them. it is a strong area for provincial Nova Scotia liberals but conservatives hold all kinds of seats across canada in areas provincial conservative parites do poorly in , that is really nothing unusual at all. federal conservatives also stronger in Nova Scotia than provincial pc's , the federal party won Cumberland Colchester riding easily in 09 by-election even though provincial party lost ground in that area of province. the ndp will also likely do ok in Nova Scotia this year and that poses more of a challenge to the liberals who did not expect them to be much of a factor.
    11 04 23 Yarmouthian
    Even though Ignatieff came to the riding and promised a ferry (I was there, only a rally of 200 dedicated supporters, not a large crowd) With the weakened Liberal support nationally and in Nova Scotia, I believe this will remain Conservative.
    11 04 22 rabbit
    my bet is Liberal candidate comes back in his old seat- im assuming ndp vote will be less- ( issue the ferry to maine etc due to provincial govt cuts)
    assume it will be close- less than 1000 votes - so not massive swing away from tories but enough swing to Liberals to win -
    11 04 22 Nova Scotian
    Interesting article in the Chronicle Herald today about Andy Baxter, who gave up the federal nomination in 2009 after the province’s decision on the ferry to throw his support behind Thibault. This should help him. Ignatieff was also in Yarmouth the other day and promised to restore ferry service between Yarmouth and Maine which is a major issue for West Nova. The latest polls also show the Conservatives and Liberals trending down in Atlantic Canada and the NDP up. Will enough Liberal voters get out this election and over-throw the conservatives? This riding is still TCTC and it will depend on who gets out to vote on May 2nd.
    11 04 21 tabhairteach
    With the Liberal promise to get behind the return of the Ferry, you have to wonder if there's any more Tory stash to spread around. Advantage Thibault. Game on!
    11 04 20 Marc Moisan
    I am definitely changing my prediction from ‘close Conservative win’ to ‘much too close to call’. This is definitely going to be a very close race and everyone knows it even the candidates. It will be quite interesting for sure and it truly makes you feel that your vote will actually count. Support for both Kerr and Thibault are spread equally across the riding. Both candidates are respected and trusted (much more so than either one of their leaders) and I am looking forward to find out who will win on May 2nd.
    11 04 19 tabhairteach
    A week ago a Conservative friend mentioned that Kerr was losing this one. I didn't see it, but have watched the numbers which are staying VERY tight. Tight enough for Ignatieff to fly in to Yarmouth tomorrow. Thibault, working hard [with provincial leader McNeil's help], was a good member before and is well liked. Tory base not really pro-Harper, but, if there is significant bleeding, watch for heavier troops [McKay?] to show up too, maybe in Berwick. Momentum is with Thibault.
    11 04 18 Junkie Politico
    My previous prediction of a Conservative win in West Nova has been changed to ‘too close to call.’ Recent polls suggest that the Tories have not only topped-out in Atlantic Canada but fallen back a bit, while the Liberals have regained the lead. Add to this the fact that Conservative strength is likely strongest in New Brunswick out of all the Atlantic provinces, and that the Conservatives certainly would have made gains in Newfoundland and Labrador over their 2008 result, and one is left wondering just how strong the Tories are in Nova Scotia. Apart from extrapolations based upon polls, a politically engaged friend of mine from the Digby Neck/Long Island/Brier Island portion of the riding says that the riding is currently a toss-up, though if forced to call it says it will go Liberal. This is largely due to a bleeding a NDP votes in Yarmouth to the Liberals. However, the NDP candidate is apparently known for his opposition to large-scale aquaculture, which helps him vis-a-vis the Liberals. I should add that the aforementioned friend lives just about where the anglophone portion of the riding melts into the ‘French Shore,’ so the local circumstances in his area act as a good barometer of the riding as a whole more so than in other more uniform areas of the riding. If I had a gun to my head, I'd say a narrow Liberal win, but a lot will depend upon changes in the regional polls.
    11 04 06 nope586
    This riding has been becoming more and more Liberal provincially here for a couple of years and elections now. The provincial leader has his seat here and they have a lot of organizing capacity in this riding. Combine that with the close results from last election with the general displeasure with Mr. Harper in Nova Scotia and that leads to a possible Liberal win.
    11 04 04 slick
    I agree that aquaculture will be an issue, and so far Kerr, who is in a position to put the St. Mary's Bay proposal on hold, or recommend a full environmental panel, has done nothing. Clearly he supports this massive fish feedlot, which most lobstermen know will destroy their fishery, just as it has in New Brunswick.
    A lot of people are talking about this issue. Maybe the polticians sould listen to what's being said.
    11 04 03 Marc Moisan
    I am in agreement with most previous comments. It will be a close race, but not as close as last time, Greg Kerr's support is strong and he is well liked and he did much work for the area. It will not be a very comfortable victory, however. The French shore has been strongly supporting Robert Thibault.
    11 04 02 D
    We have a huge local issue that is about to raise its head in West Nova. That being the aquaculture issue. The Lobster fishermen are 95% opposed to the large scale aquaculture that is being pushed in the riding. Considering how close the vote was last time the first person to come out against the aquaculture is going to scoop up many of those votes and in turn win West Nova.
    A politician asking for a joint panel environmental review will have a big advantage over the guy who keeps his mouth shut.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    Straight-up Liberal vs. Conservative. NDP weakness favours the Liberals. NDP provincial decision to kill the 'Cat' passenger ferry favours Liberals as votes will shift.
    Having a Government member did Yarmouth no good - yet - so it's hard to tell whether people think they'll get some ferry service back more easily by voting Conservative again or making clear that the vote is conditional on a ferry.
    Plain fact, sad for Yarmouth, is that outside of Annapolis Valley and the historic sites the tourist appeal of the area itself is limited. Tourists pass through on their way to South Shore, Halifax, Cape Breton, PEI or the Rock. American tourist traffic isn't coming back due to the high dollar - one can thank Harper's ‘energy superpower’ petrodollar dirty-oil talk for that - and also the American-imposed requirement for passports, Harper's removal of the GST rebate, and so on.
    A freight and shipping strategy focused on short-shipping barges/lakers that load in Halifax rather than ferried trucks is far more sensible in the long run. We all know the price of truck fuel and roads only goes up.
    What really killed the Yarmouth ferry dead is that the decreased traffic was redirected to the shorter within-Canada St. John - Digby ferry link to keep *that* running. There's only so much traffic, less all the time. A ferry between two Canadian ports is far more likely to get the subsidies.
    Back to the race and likely moves by Harper, one has to face that longer truck times and reduced shipping means more oil sales, and the Harper government is bought and paid for by big oil *cough* Irvings *cough* who also want the traffic to go through St. John. So there's no reason to believe they would restore any ferry, ever, to Yarmouth. Harper might, as a simple vote-buying measure, show up to promise that if Liberals show big leads in the polls here.
    People who are realistic about all this will accordingly answer polls, and if necessary also vote, Liberal. They'll hope that the shift of loyalties forces some attention to this matter and enables the provincial Opposition (also Liberal) somehow. People who are fools will vote Conservative and expect Harper to reward loyalty (has he ever?) and reduce oil sales (does he ever?) and turn on the Irvings (um... why?) and risk his seat in St. John by reducing *that* traffic. The question is accordingly whether West Nova voters are trusting fools or not.
    Didn't some of them elect the most expense-scandalized provincial MLA? Hm.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    Swing ridings may change every election, but this is one of the few if not the only riding which has been a swing one consistently since 1867. This riding has a long history of bouncing back and forth between the Liberals and Tories. Both parties have a base of around 35%, while 15% will never go for either party so the swing vote is relatively small. Although I would give the edge to the Tories due to incumbency factor, I would be surprised if either side wins by more than 10%.
    11 03 30 slick
    Looks like the NDP have gone back to George Barron, who ran the last two times for them.
    11 03 27 Southwesterner
    Andy Baxter is no longer the NDP candidate. He did withdraw and the party is currently looking for anyone who will run as a sacrificial lamb as they have no chance.
    11 03 25 slick
    Is Andy Baxter still the NDP candidate? I thought he gave it up after the provincial NDP withdrew funding for the ferry. The Yarmouth Vanguard says today the NDP is still looking for a candidate.
    11 03 06 J. MacDonald
    This riding will remain Conservative as recent polls show the party with a surge in Atlantic Canada. A riding breakdown shows the Conservatives with 43.6% support in West Nova district, their highest support here since 1984.
    11 02 27 Junkie Politico
    My gut feeling says that West Nova will remain Conservative. Robert Thibault is running again for the Liberals, and it is worth noting that in only one election (2004) did he win by a margin greater than 2%. In that election, the new Conservatives were still an untested force that made many Maritime PC voters wary. In the other three contests in which Thibault ran (2000, 2006, 2008) he either won by slim margins or lost. Considering the decent polling figures for the Tories in Atlantic Canada (hovering in the 35% range) and the recently declining fortunes of the Liberals in the region, Greg Kerr should hold on. Shifting polling dynamics could change things, but for the time being I sense a Conservative hold.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    Look for a (slightly less) narrow Tory win. The incumbent's advantage will help, and Kerr has grown the Tory total each time he's run. Won't be a runaway though...
    10 09 27 Southwesterner
    This riding elected Kerr, a conservative in 2008 and his support here is steady. The support for the conservatives has definitely increased after the gun registry vote as many people here hunt and own firearms and are not impressed by the Liberals and the NDP on this issue.
    10 08 09 Mad Caper
    This will be an interesting race as the Liberals fight to retain the seat they held for quite some time,but,based on the profile of the incumbent Greg Kerr and the work that has been done by the Tories in this riding and the fact that the N.D.P.are not a factor in this race will see this riding stay in the Tory fold
    10 03 05 Ned
    Thibault will run again and will be strong. He is well liked in spite of his verbal gaffes before last election but Kerr has driven a pile of money in here and Kerr is well liked too. This will be close if the Liberals stay within 5 pts of Cons nationally.
    10 01 15 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Considering the depressed numbers for the conservatives lately(and we do not YET think the latest EKOS poll is a true picture, but there is a definite downward swing), shouldn't this riding (and a host of others which are currently listed officially either Conservative or Liberal) should be recast as TCTC. At the very least until an election is actually called? It appears that some of the Tory support is soft; I'd be enough to swing this riding.
    09 10 09 A.S.
    The riding tends to re-elect incumbents?!? Until Thibault was reelected in 2004 and then 2006, it was notorious for *never* reelecting *anybody* since the end of the Diefenbaker era! Otherwise, if one's looking for a Dexter NDP honeymoon effect, keep in mind that provincially speaking in 2009, the seat's half ultra-Liberal (including leader Stephen McNeil's Annapolis home base), half ultra-Conservative (despite Yarmouth having gone NDP back in their 1998 breakthrough); which therefore would foretell the strictly two-way status quo continuing...
    09 10 06 Jean Boudreau
    This will be close but not as close as last election as the popularity of the Conservatives continues to climb. The Cons will hold this riding due to Yarmouth County and the eastern end.
    09 10 05 NovaScotian
    Robert Thibault is a weak politician who made a number of gaffes in 2008. This is a naturally Conservative riding and the riding tends to re-elect incumbents. It will be the same this election
    09 09 30 SouthwestNova
    The Conservatives will get the majority of votes from the western stronghold of Yarmouth County and the eastern military area of Greenwood. Digby County will vote Liberal as usual but this will not be enough for the Liberals to gain this riding.
    09 09 11 Left is Right
    Logic dictates that Libs should win if Thibaut runs again, and it will be tight....but the Cons are pouring money in here and Kerr is well liked. It is a gut feel that the Cons wont let this one slip away.
    09 09 04 R.O.
    This is likely the riding that has flipped between the conservatives and liberals the most in Nova Scotia over the years i discovered well searching thru its history , but mp's still get re-elected here i noticed. i'd say Greg Kerr has the advantage here as he has been mp for a year now and almost won the riding back in 06 as well. he's also been active in the riding and brought numerous federal projects and funds to the riding from what i have read. as for the opposition its unclear who they will even run here and if former liberal mp Robert Thibault is in or out of the running.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    This riding could be yet another rematch for Kerr and Thibault. Thibault defeated Kerr in 2006 by 500 votes and Kerr defeated Thibault in 2008 by 1500. If Thibault is the Liberal nominee again it will be the third time in three federal elections they will run against each other. Either one could take the riding. The NDP are not a significant factor in the riding. The riding has a long history of being bounced between Liberals and Conservatives. This one will be too close to call.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster