Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:07:00

Constituency Profile


Gionet, Jean Marie

Godin, Yvon

Robichaud, Louis

Yvon Godin

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • acadie-bathurst (207/227 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 The Jackal
    Mr.Godin is safe here with or without the NDP surge in the polls. It will be interesting to see what happens here when he retires.
    11 04 24 John
    For any party to take this seat away from the NDP, you need to have a Frank McKenna type of guy to take it.
    11 04 21 JaneyCanuck
    There is NO way any other candidate will defeat Yvon Godin here. He is considered a very good constituency MP and rural ridings (even tho the city of Bathurst is here, this is primarily a northern rural area) and these ridings need their MP since they have less access to govt services. Also, he has yet to loose an election and it really is his to loose. The NDP surge in Quebec, not far from this area, can only help him- since I do believe his bill regarding the Supreme Court and bilingualism has likely assisted the NDP in theiur rise in Quebec tho Jack Layton's strong performance in the debates, on the campaign trail and the fact he is a native of Hudson and grew up in Montreal and speaks the street French , all help Yvon.
    11 04 19 rp
    Hard for the GP to get any support w/o a candidate (one of four ridings in the country with no green candidate)
    11 04 04 WM
    The other parties have announced their candidates: Jean-Marie Gionet for the Liberals, Louis Robichaud for the Conservatives, and Mathieu Laplante for the Greens. If you're asking 'Who?', you're not alone. This is apparently Godin's riding as long as he wants it, and he'll win it N45-L27.5-C25-G2.5, roughly.
    11 04 02 C.A.B.
    Considering how well the NDP does here under Godin, it's hard to believe they never won here before 1997. Then again, this riding has all the hallmarks of a personal fiefdom - even the provincial NDP leader couldn't win in a district located within this seat's boundaries, and apart from the 1997 blip in neighbouring - and now solidly Liberal - Beausejour, they've had little success elsewhere in New Brunswick. Not that any of that matters in the here and now - solid win for Godin, once again.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    The riding is fairly centre-left due to the large Francophone population and seasonal workers and considering Godin's popularity it should stay NDP as long as he remains NDP. If he were to step down, then it would probably go Liberal, but along with Beausejour, I cannot see the Tories winning this even under a perfect storm for them.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    Godin has been here for years and this seems to be a case of the seat being his as long as he wants it.
    11 03 26 WAC
    Hasn't been close in Acadie-Bathurst since 2000, no reason to think it will be close this time.
    11 03 20 binriso
    Sure Godin had a couple close calls in the past but there is little doubt he will win again by a large margin, even after he retires the NDP should be very competitive here even if they dont retain the seat.
    10 05 20 WM
    While I think Godin will win again, I suspect by not quite as much as before. The tough economy has hit the Bathurst area quite hard, and with not enough jobs to go around, the incumbent always takes the blame.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Yvon Godin got elected with Alexa McDonough leadership NDP breakthrough in Atlantic Canada. But Godin proved to be an exceptional MP for Acadie-Bathurst.
    Unless Yvon Godin retires, this riding is sure to be NDP to the core.

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