Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-04-29 23:39:00

Profil de circonscription


Cannon, Lawrence

Duncan McMillan, Cindy

Legros, Benoit

Mayrand, Louis-Philippe

Ravignat, Mathieu

Tremblay, Maude

L'hon. Lawrence Cannon

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • gatineau (41/243 Polls)
  • pontiac-gatineau-labelle (156/234 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 02 William K
    Project democracy poll - what a buch of crap ... lol - left wing pressure group - no credibility ..
    If the CROP poll says too close to call - then Conservatives will win...
    je suis presque certain si CROP vise juste que les Conservateurs & Lawerence Cannon va gagner ... si c'est trop serré selon CROP, automatiquement c'est l'avantage Conservateur - les voteurs Conservateurs sont plus disipliné que les voteurs potentiels NPD - en plus plusieurs qui ont songé de voter NPD vont retourner au Bloc...
    11 05 01 NewToPontiac
    Today I got a very important call from Mr. Harper. He trashed NDPs and Bloc. So I'm assuming Libs no longer a threat and I'm hoping NDP will prevail. I KNOW that I'm on a Conservative 'do not call list' due to previous interactions with M. Cannon so if they are calling, they are desperate and I am happy! :)
    11 05 01
    Sad, it's just sad, that best Quebec Minister (one of the best in the country), who is actually progressive (he votes in favour of same-sex marriage) should lose his seat while other conservative ministers of much lower caliber are probably keeping theirs. I'd like the people in this riding to support Cannon, but his vote seems to have peaked. Both CROP and project democracy have him around 32-33%. Meanwhile, the bloc vote have shifted massively to the NDP, along with some liberal votes. So the question is ultimately whether the NDP can collect enough vote to surpass Cannon's 32%. The surrounding areas, however, are so strongly NDP this time that I don't think he can survive.
    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    This riding may now be leaning NDP, although still close. Project Democracy poll:
    NDP: 39.2
    CON: 33.3
    LIB: 15.7
    BQ: 7.8
    11 04 30 R.O.
    Holding out hope that common sense prevails and that Lawrence Cannon holds the riding over the ndp candidate who was once a communist . with conservatives leading in national polls there is a chance some residents of riding decide there better served by having a high profile member of the conservative caucus than an ndp backbencher. this riding is also an odd mix of several different areas. i've been to shawville portion of this riding before and its english speaking and much more like eastern ontario than quebec , Cannon won this area in 08 and should hold it still. so the question is what happens in Buckingham and Gatineau areas which are usually bloc and wakefield which is liberal . The ndp vote well high in quebec polls is not solid some may still switch parties according to polls . according to leger poll in todays sun 35% are open to changing there minds so its tough to say what happens in some ridings.
    Un espoir que le bon sens l'emporte et que Lawrence Cannon est titulaire de la circonscription sur le candidat du NPD qui a déjà été un communiste. avec les conservateurs de premier plan dans les sondages nationaux, il ya une chance certains résidents de la circonscription de décider il mieux servi par un membre de haut niveau du caucus conservateur qu'un simple député néo-démocrate. cette circonscription est également un étrange mélange de plusieurs domaines différents. J'ai été à Shawville partie de cette circonscription avant et ses anglophone et bien plus encore comme Est de l'Ontario que le Québec, Cannon a remporté ce domaine en 08 et doit le maintenir en place. Donc la question est ce qui se passe dans les zones de Buckingham et de Gatineau, qui sont habituellement bloc et Wakefield qui est libérale. Le vote NPD bien haut dans les sondages au Québec n'est pas solide certains peuvent encore changer de parti selon les sondages. selon Léger sondage dans le soleil d'aujourd'hui 35% sont ouverts à l'évolution des esprits si il son dur-à-dire ce qui se passe dans certaines circonscriptions.
    11 04 30
    CROP has a poll showing Cannon and Ravignat tied at 32%. TCTC, with a slight edge to the NDP.
    11 04 30 binriso
    Well the NDP candidate may not be great but the Conservatives have as MPs: David Sweet, Cheryl Gallant, Tom Lukiwski, Brad Trost and the grand-daddy of them all Rob Anders. Look these people up and some of the things they believe. This unknown NDP candidate is almost by default a better candidate than these five even with former communist leanings.
    11 04 29 MF
    Already one of the strongest ridings in Quebec prior to the NDP surge, I'm predicting the NDP wins Pontiac and Lawrence Cannon goes down to defeat.
    11 04 29 WAC
    For what its worth, Project Democracy did some riding polls which they release today: Ravignat (NDP) 39.2; Cannon (Con) 33.3; Cindy Duncan-MacMillan (Lib) 15.7; Tremblay (BQ) 7.9. 400 people survey - MOE +/- 4.9%. Looks like its between the NDP and Conservatives - and although the NDP do not have a ground game here - its close enough to places like Ottawa and Gatineau where they do that they can send some volunteers over to help. NDP by a slim margin.
    11 04 29 William K
    the anglophones voting for a former communist party candidat (now with the NPD) in 1997 - give me a break !!!
    no I think that common sense will prevail....
    aussi je pense que la communauté francophone va penser 2 fois avant de mettre un X à coté du NPD ici
    11 04 28 Marco Ricci
    Joel-Denis Bellavance of La Presse said on CTV tonight that Lawrence Cannon is now at risk of going down to defeat here. Bellavance says anglophones in this riding are moving to the NDP. One would have thought that anglophones here would vote Liberal if they want to beat the Conservatives since the Liberals finished 2nd in 2008 and the NDP 4th. However, if the BQ voters, who finished 3rd here last time, move to the NDP, and the Liberal voters here are indeed moving to the NDP as Bellavance suggests, then the Conservatives indeed could lose.
    11 04 28 SouthpawPundit
    The situation in Quebec is 1990 Ontario on steroids. All sorts of Canada's with odd pasts or little relevant experience got elected for the NDP when Rae won. Look what happened in 1995. The same thing could happen this year in Quebec. As a proud New Democrat (and someone on the party's left flank), I don't mind this guys past, but I think in terms of our long-term prospects, doing too well in Quebec may be a case of ‘Be careful what you wish for’.
    Conversely, it's not at all implausible that this candidate's views have changed dramatically since 1997, especially if we was in his late teens or early 20s. I considered myself a libertarian (or more properly, a minarchist) as a teenager and joined the Canadian Alliance for a couple of years. Famous Argentinian soccer player Diego Maradona used to identify with his country's far-right but now considers himself a socialist and a proponent of the Bolivarian movement. So hey, you never know.
    11 04 28 Stéphane Gaudet
    Selon La Presse, des stratèges conservateurs concèdent que le ministre des Affaires étrangères Lawrence Cannon serait en voie de perdre son siège au profit du candidat NPD Mathieu Ravignat. Le NPD est bien parti pour balayer l'Outaouais.
    11 04 27 kev davids
    This sudden shift to the NDP in Quebec and somewhat in the rest of Canada will really put the Election Prediction Project to the test. Sharp changes in voter direction over a short span of time may prove problematic to the website's methodology. We'll see I guess.
    As for Pontiac, it appears set to go NDP along with a slew of other ridings in La Belle Province.
    11 04 27 Voice of Reason
    The province wide polls are one thing, but the NDP candidate here was identified in the Globe and Mail as one of the ‘risky’ ‘pylons’ among the NDP in Quebec - a former Communist party executive, in this case. The local candidate has to make some difference. I don't live anywhere near here, but the fact that the candidate is marginal suggests that there isn't likely to be a strong ground game to get out the vote. The Liberals have cratered, and I suspect the NDP polling surge doesn't translate quite as well at the polls. Cannon should hang on.
    11 04 25 WAC
    With two more polls that came out today: EKOS has the NDP at 38.9% in Quebec; the BQ at 25.2%; the Conservatives at 14.3; the Liberals at 13.7. Environics had the NDP at 41%; the BQ at 28%; the Liberals at 15% and the Conservatives at 12%. This mean every party has lost votes to the NDP - if these numbers are correct or even remotely correct (more closely to the more modest Nanos numbers) - then Pontiac would be one of the first to go to the NDP. This prediction would have seemed crazy to me even two weeks ago, but these are crazy times...
    11 04 24 binriso
    Well I said at 26% the NDP have this riding won, and with some polls showing them as high as 36% and mostly around 30% and the Conservatives even lower than 17% in some cases looks like it will be an NDP win.
    11 04 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Nick/Teddy is absolutly correct. The NDP have a very good shot at taking this riding now.We're calling it for the Liberals though and here's why: the BQ are trending way down and losing support to the NDP. The CPC is trending down in Quebec and is significantly lower than where they were election day '08 (albeit not losing as much as the BQ are losing). The Liberals, though down a little from election day '08, do not have a downward trend. Rather their support is more or less stable. They also have a better known candidate than the NDP. So more familiar candidate, not losing support and having done well in the past, they should take this riding. It will be close, very close and we think the results might even prompt a recount.
    11 04 22 Teddy Boragina
    On the current numbers, this riding could fall to the NDP quite easily. In a traditional 4 way race, it does not take much of a bump for the 4th party to end up 1st. Cannon might need to finish out his cabinet term from the Senate.
    11 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Although probably the correct prediction, we cannot get behind the CPC call just yet. The Tories numbers are dropping in Quebec and have been for some time well below what got in '08. This, having being a close race in the past, could still tilt away from the CPC. Might be seeing a new Gatineau situation arising.
    11 04 19 Teddy Boragina
    If the NDP can continue it's climb at the polls, it could steal this seat. The NDP is not there yet (on the poll numbers) but they are getting close.
    11 04 18 binriso
    One more point to make, if the Angus Reid Survey that had the NDP at 26 (+13.8 compared to last time) percent in Quebec as well as the Conservatives at 17 (-4.7 compared to last time) was completely accurate, the NDP would *win* this riding by 1.5 percent, considering the Bloc and Liberals were both down about 3-4 points. Even other polling companies which have them down a bit nationally have them above 20% in Quebec.
    11 04 17 burlivespipe
    Cannon's margin remained barely safe despite his high standing in cabinet over the past 5 years. Harper's poor performance on the Quebec front -- and his latest stick-in-a-hornet's nest about a future showdown with Marios and a possible Parti Quebecois government -- will come back to haunt him, along with the views of the Reform-Alliance-Conservative past...
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Not exactly a Tory stronghold and Lawrence Cannon will almost certainly win with less than 40%. The main reason I think he will hold this as he has a high profile cabinet position as well as neither the Liberals or Bloc are strong enough riding wise to take this. The large Anglophone population makes this difficult for the Bloc Quebecois, while the large rural component makes this tough for the Liberals as they are still very weak in Rural Quebec, so Cannon wins by default even if his share of the vote isn't particularly good.
    11 04 16 binriso
    Potential 4 way race here with the incumbent elected with less than 1/3 of the votes, but with that many candidates it looks like the Conservatives would win. When you factor in the barely 50 percent turnout, Cannon has the voting support of about 17 percent of the total electorate, which is hilarious.
    11 04 12
    Conservatives: Lawrence Cannon is a top dog in parliament. Voter apathy + left division = reelection.
    Liberals will not overcome the power of the Conservative Candidate Lawrence Cannon. Although some Block voters might switch to Cindy (liberal)
    NDP: Gnawing as usual in this riding but unable to ignite the passion.
    Block: Solid as usual. (Young votes rising)
    Green: Last election the Greens went all out. But to no avail. (Young votes will tally up slightly)
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    Considering Lawrence Cannon only got 32% last time around, it wouldn't be that hard to defeat him. The problem is it is unclear which party be it the Bloc or the Liberals is most likely to defeat him. Add to the fact his high cabinet profile position will no doubt make this more difficult to win. At this point, I give the Tories the edge, but the Liberals and Bloc both have a shot at winning this.
    10 12 21 R.O.
    not much has happened here and we still don't have candidates for bloc or ndp yet . was actually in this riding well western part that is over the summer , more as a tourist , a very scenic place. lots of small towns and a bit more rural than you'd actually expect. but its tough to get a feel for a riding so large and with so many different areas . well polling isn't that great for the conservatives in Quebec , pontiac tends to have results similar to Ontario and conservatives even before Cannon came around always done better here than other nearby Quebec ridings. but bloc remains somewhat of a wildcard and well they have never won the riding always got at least 20% of vote since 2000. so without a candidate its tough to know what kind of impact they have here. anyways Lawrence Cannon is a high profile cabinet minister and usually seen as doing a good job , so he still maintains somewhat of an advantage here .
    pas a passé beaucoup de choses ici et nous n'avons toujours pas de candidats pour le Bloc ou le NPD pour le moment. a été fait dans cette circonscription ainsi partie occidentale qui est cours de l'été, plus en tant que touriste, un endroit très pittoresque. beaucoup de villes petites et un peu plus les zones rurales que vous fait attendre. mais c'est dur d'avoir une idée d'une circonscription aussi vaste et avec autant de domaines différents. ainsi de vote qui n'est pas grand pour les conservateurs au Québec, Pontiac a tendance à avoir des résultats similaires à l'Ontario et les conservateurs avant même Cannon a toujours fait autour de mieux ici que les autres circonscriptions du Québec à proximité. mais bloc reste un peu un joker et bien qu'ils n'ont jamais remporté la circonscription toujours eu au moins 20% des voix depuis 2000. sans un candidat de sa difficile de savoir quel genre d'impact qu'ils ont ici. de toute façon, Lawrence Cannon, est un ministre de haut niveau du Cabinet et généralement considéré comme faisant un bon travail, donc il garde toujours un certain avantage ici.
    09 09 15 BJA
    As most people of the Pontiac and Quebec, will know by now, Cindy Duncan McMillan overcame the best backroom efforts of the LPCQ and LPC and again won the nomination as the Liberal candidate in this riding. With a very gutsy effort she canvassed the riding personally in a well-used Chevy reminding residents of her long time personal and business commitment to her home area. With very little support of any kind from the Party, Cindy came close to Cannon in the last election campaign. Her involvement with agricultural and environmental issues, before they became trendy and fashionable, paid off. She will do even better this time as NDP and Green party voters may vote more strategically this time around.
    Cannon, who is now known as ?Cash Cannon? continues the Harper routine of handing out cheques and floating ludicrous remedies for serious economy-related issues. As an example he has proposed turning a closed lumber mill into a garbage incinerator and last time around was promoting the building of a pentiteniary in the Pontiac. His constituents are a blend of practical everyday farmers, unemployed lumber-workers and professional types who live in the Southern party of the region and work in Ottawa-Gatineau.
    09 09 12 MJL
    Whenever I wade into Quebec predictions I tend to get hosed, so take this with a grain of salt. While Cannon only won 33% of the vote, he had an 8 point margin of victory thanks to considerable vote-splitting.
    Bloc voters are not likely to swing to the Liberals in large numbers, while the NDP numbers appear likely to hold. Moreover, while Tory fortunes in Quebec are not good, they are polling close to where they were in 2008 (polls tend to undercount Tory support in Quebec). Also, the stimulus money was highly targeted, and you can take it to the bank that Cannon made sure lots of largesse came his way.
    I think it is more likely that some of the Tory no-names, and those up against just the Bloc are genuinely in trouble. Cannon should be able to survive.
    09 09 11 Marco Ricci
    Only winning a seat with around 32% of the vote is not a good result for any candidate, let alone one who is a Cabinet Minister and one of the highest-profile MP's in Quebec. A very worrying result for Cannon last time indeed.
    The Liberals are also targeting this seat more than they did last time and it is also listed in Le Devoir as one of the seats that has been projected as a possible Conservative loss:
    The Liberals managed to move back into 2nd in 2008 after falling to 3rd in 2006. They held this riding from 1997-2006 and now that their numbers are improving in Quebec compared to the Dion days, I would lean towards them winning this seat, although it is too soon to make a final prediction.
    09 09 08 Nick J Boragina
    This riding will be close. The Liberals are back at pre-2006 vote levels, and that gives them the opportunity to take this seat back. It really will all come down to Bloc voters and the Bloc. If they take a strong run at the seat, Cannon will hold on, but if they ease off, that's all the Liberals will need to re-take the seat.
    09 09 06 R.O.
    I almost think this riding is becoming the ‘edmonton centre’ of quebec , if your familiar with the past races in edmonton centre or how former liberal cabinet minister Anne Mclellan had to try and win her seat against strong local trends in an area not that favourable to her party and she was also very high profile on the national stage like Lawrence Cannon. so there is definitely some similarities between the 2 races. but i think Lawrence Cannon has the advantage here and as mp for the riding for 4 years now he is not going to be easy to beat and i doubt that it would actually happen even if the liberals target the seat as they say they will. cause obviously the conservatives are going to target it as well as was shown during Stephen Harpers visit to the riding to announce a local highway project.
    Je pense que presque cette circonscription devient le centre ‘Edmonton’ du Québec, si votre familiers avec les dernières courses dans Edmonton-Centre
    ou comment l'ancien ministre libéral Anne McLellan avait pour essayer de gagner son siège contre les tendances locales fortes dans une zone pas que favorable à son parti et elle était aussi très présents sur la scène nationale comme Lawrence Cannon. Donc, il ya certainement des similitudes entre les 2 courses. mais je pense que Lawrence Cannon a ici l'avantage et en tant que député de la circonscription depuis 4 ans maintenant, il ne va pas être facile à battre et je doute que ce serait effectivement se produire même si les libéraux cible le siège comme ils disent qu'ils le feront. cause obvivously les conservateurs vont l'objectif ainsi comme l'a montré durant la visite de Stephen Harpers à la circonscription d'annoncer un projet routier local.
    09 09 03 Brent Thorkelson
    Clearly being down more than 10% in the polls since the last election the Conservatives will lose some seats in Quebec. Cabinet minister or not with 32% in last election and second place liberals up more than 10% in Quebec its obvious this riding will be one of them. Look for this to be called early in the night and be one of the first weeping felled giant interviews of the night.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    With the Liberals and the BQ carving up their vote, Cannon will hang on here. His total dropped last time out, but he still maintained a lead of 3,600. Look for him to again be between 32 and 35%
    11 04 28 TCR
    Pontiac is famous for its three-way battle between the Libersl, Bloq, and Conservatives, with Mr.Cannon typically coming out the winner. The NDP finished fourth, and significantly behind, so there weren't part of these three-way races in the past.
    I don't think conservative votes are losing much votes to the NDP, rather liberals and bloq are switching to the NDP. That means Cannon's main competitors are losing votes to the previous fourth-place party, hence Cannon should be able to win so long as the total NDP vote does not surpass the Conservative vote. I can't see enough vote transfer to make it happen, but do see enough to make it an easier win for Cannon.

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