Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-04-27 08:59:00

Profil de circonscription


Bachand, Jean-Philippe

Bellavance, André

Bombardier, Tomy

Maguire, Isabelle

Talbot, Marie-Josée

André Bellavance

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • drummond (2/178 Polls)
  • lotbiniere-lerable (13/155 Polls)
  • richmond-arthabaska (195/215 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Je change ma prédiction, les conservateurs sont maintenant si faibles au Québec (3e ou 4e rang) qu'ils ne peuvent plus espérer faire des gains. En passant de 22% en 2008 à 16-17%, ce serait déjà un miracle qu'ils conservent leur 11 sièges actuels, alors des gains... Ici, ça se jouera entre le BQ et le NPD, mais j'ai plus l'impression que le Bloc va l'emporter, le comté étant assez éloigné de la grande région de Montréal, étant plus rural qu'urbain (malgré la présence de Victoriaville) et le NPD n'ayant fait que 8% en 2008. Réélection, pour la 4e fois, du bloquiste André Bellavance, celui qui est finalement venu à bout d'André Bachand en 2004. Le frère de M. Bachand ne réussira pas à venger son frère, le PCC finira probablement 3e ici.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    There's nothing like a phony single-riding poll to make a difference in an election like this one.
    The Bloc is way too high and the CPC is way too low, even the NDP is probably underestimated. The only things that seem reasonable with this poll would be the Liberal and the Green vote.
    But the anti-CPC crowd will be encouraged to vote Bloc, while the anti-Bloc crowd will be discouraged from voting Conservative to block the Bloc as the poll gives the impression that the Bloc will win anyway.
    I hope Mr. Bellavance will thank that newspaper and that polling company during his victory speech on Monday evening.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A recent poll in this riding shows the BQ holding steadily in the lead and apparently Jackomania hasn`t reached here. BQ hold.
    11 04 26 expat
    A poll published by the local newspaper (La Nouvelle Union) shows this to be a run-away for the Bloc incumbent.
    Bellavance (BQ) is shown leading with 47%, well ahead of the two runners-up - Conservative Bachard at 21% and the NDP's Maguire at 20%, while the Liberal and Green are tied at 6% each. (To give an idea of how much things change, the NDP candidate received just 8% of the vote in 2008).
    Unless the poll is seriously flawed it would seem that any hope the Conservatives had of taking this seat have evaporated this year.
    11 04 25 binriso
    The Conservatives lost ground here last time and were almost 9000 votes back. I dont think a 17 point margin in Quebec can be overcome under the current circumstances, though itll be closer. The Bloc finished about 17 points ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec last time, and that is pretty close to the distance this time as well, which is another trend against the Conservatives.
    11 04 23 Stéphane Gaudet
    Le nom Bachand est populaire ici. Avec les appuis au Bloc sapés par le NPD, je ne serais pas surpris de voir une victoire conservatrice ici, plus probable que dans Drummond.
    11 04 12 E Rougeau
    This might switch Conservative again.
    Mr.Bachand seems to run a good campaign and this region have pretty strong Conservative roots. The fighting over exploitation and exportation of Asbestos might help the Conservatives who are a lot less keen to stop it than the Bloc Quebecois.
    11 03 30 Tony Ducey
    Will be a target seat for the Conservatives but I think the Bloc hold onto this seat.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Although more conservative than the province as a whole, The Tories are only competitive in the very eastern parts of the riding thus unless they can crack the 30% mark provincially, I expect the Bloc will hold this.
    09 11 23 R.O.
    This is likely a riding where the conservatives are still fairly competitive and more than likely a bloc / conservative race in the next election especially when considering the liberals stance on asbestos. although it was pc in 97 and 2000 the new conservative party without Andre Bachand as there candidate here has yet to reach his previous levels of support . but the conservatives still run fairly strong here when compared to other quebec ridings so its likely one of the half dozen or so ridings where they still have a chance. but bloc mp Andre Bellavance maintains the advantage and hasn't ever got less than 18000 votes in the riding and that was back in 2000 so he may be hard to beat.
    Ceci est probablement un prendre ou les conservateurs sont toujours assez competitifs et plus que probablement un bloc/la course conservatrice dans la prochaine election surtout in Vu la position de liberaux sur l'amiante. bien que le c'etait pc dans 97 et 2000 le nouveau parti conservateur sans Andre Bachand comme la le candidat a ici pourtant a atteindre ses niveaux precedents de soutien. mais les conservateurs courent toujours assez fort ici quand En comparaison de l'autre Quebec debarrasse si son probable une des demi douzaine plus ou moins debarrasse ou ils ont une chance toujours. mais le bloc mp Andre Bellavance maintient l'avantage et n'a jamais obtenu moins que 18000 votes dans le prendre et cela etait de retour dans 2000 s'il peut etre dur a battre.
    09 10 16 Smok Wawelski
    Don't call it for the Bloc yet... Tory numbers are bouncing back in Quebec, and I think they could take it if Bachand runs there.... Why he ran in Sherbrooke and not in Richmond last time out leaves one wondering, but if they put him back in there, the Tories have a very real chance.
    In 2000 when Bachand won by fewer than 400 votes,let's not forget he was representing the PC Party under Joe Clark, using recycled signs from the previous election, and furthermore the party had just been dealt a blow when days before the election was called, Chretien had persuaded his remaining fellow Tories in Quebec Diane St. Jacques and David Price to defect to the grits, and former Tory Andre Harvey in Chicoutimi-Le FJord to drop his independent status and join the Liberal fold.
    Now the Tories are a well funded national party with some strength in the region. Brand new ball game.
    09 10 04 Nick J Boragina
    Even if half the Liberal voters went to the Tories, they would still be thousands of votes shy. Meanwhile Bachand only held on to this riding in 2000 by some 400 votes. This is a Bloc riding.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    The Liberal vote will likely be extremely low in this riding due to Michael Ignatieff's recent anti-asbestos comments.
    As a result it will be obvious for every federalist voter in the riding that the one credible federalist alternative in Richmond-Arthabaska will be the Conservative Party which is pro-asbestos.
    The Bloc still has a good chance of keeping the riding as the Bloc vote was a few points above the provincial average in the last three elections, but a clear two-way race can increase turnout among federalist voters. At this point this race is too close to call.

    Navigate to 2011 - élection générale | Actualité provinciale | Soumettez l'information ici

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision -
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster