Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:29:00

Constituency Profile


Carrière, Denis A.

Fricot, Yves

Harvey, Richard

Hyer, Bruce

Kyle, Scot

Bruce Hyer

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • thunder-bay-atikokan (16/171 Polls)
  • thunder-bay-superior-north (180/180 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 NJam101
    No chance for Richard Harvey, the Conservative candidate. The Conservatives in their best of times have never had enough support to come close. In 1984 the PC candidates received 28% and in the last election CPC candidate Bev Sarafin received about 27% of the votes. Bruce Hyer received about 37% last time. This time he will do much better. Liberal support is falling and virtually all of it going to the NDP. Very few Liberals here would even consider the Harper Conservatives. It won't be a huge victory for Hyer within all neighbourhoods the City of T-Bay but it will be big time NDP in the rural parts of the riding, towns and First Nations. Resource based towns are NEVER Conservative in Northern Ontario. And with the Liberals becoming the third party, many will swing to the NDP. Oh, and the forestry crisis means more NDP support as well.
    11 04 30 RJC
    I think the Conservatives have a good chance at taking this riding. The NDP have never had clear support. Bruce Hyer was elected on a closely split vote with only 38% of the popular vote. I believe that many Liberal votes will go to the Conservatives this time around.
    11 04 25 Am I wrong?
    Last election the Libs and PC were virtually tied. I drove the family to Pearl on the weekend saw more Richard Harvey signs than anyone else. Momentum is definitely on Harvey's side. So he picks up the anti Fricot/Buchanan right and left votes from Hyer because he has toed the party line and voted against every dollar, he say's $240 million that came to this riding. Remember the NDP's have not increased in popularity in Ontario at all. People are too concerned about having a strong economy.
    Why do you think the PM spent two days here?
    11 04 24 JFBreton
    Ce sera effectivement serré. ThreeHundredEight.com et Democraticspace.com donnent le NPD gagnant ici et j'aurais tendance à le croire. La montée du NPD au Québec et son effet d'entraînement au Canada anglais, de même que la stagnation du vote libéral, assurent au NPD de conserver ses sièges dans le nord de l'Ontario. L'argument historique avancé par certains ici a sa valeur, mais à une semaine du vote, la remontée néodémocrate devrait très nettement galvaniser les troupes. Victoire NPD.
    11 04 18 Stray
    The last time Thunder Bay had 2 NDP MPs (a quarter of a century ago), this riding was the first to go back to the Liberals. As usual, it will be a tight race between the Liberals and NDP. In the last 43 years, Thunder Bay has not elected a Conservative MP.
    While I would not be shocked if this riding stayed NDP, the two Thunder Bay ridings are very Liberal friendly.
    11 04 18 jfra1379
    This one is really, really tight.
    Hyer has a tough time connecting with people, but Fricot has the baggage associated with his time working for the Buchanan Group. Mind you, politics looks good on Fricot, and he definitely wins the ‘would I go for a beer with this guy?’ factor compared to Hyer.
    It'll come down to the wire, but I think Fricot will squeak past Hyer - especially if the rural vote goes with Harvey as I expect. (They would never have voted for Fricot anyway.)
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We think this one should have been called for the NDP before TB-RR. The NDP have the incumbency and they are at the same support that had in Ontario as in '08. CPC support has only inched up since 2000 but is too far behind to win this one right now. Liberals are currently up 5% compared to what they got in '08 so they may have a chance at retaking this riding. Still say it's incumbent's advantage.
    11 04 16 K M
    This will be a very close riding but I think it will go Liberal. Most people who meets Yves Fricot instantly likes him. He is very personable and as another author said he has been canvassing since December. So, he has met a lot of people. MP Bruce Hyer hasn't done much for Northwestern Ontario or the region. His bills does not cater to Thunder Bay and he was at loss of words when asked about what's northern about NDP's Northern Platform. Slowly but surely the Liberal signs are rising in Thunder Bay Superior North. I personally know NDP's in Thunder Bay- Superior North who will be voting Liberal this election because they're not happy with the way Bruce Hyer does politics in the riding.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Liberals barely held this in 2006 when they had Joe Comuzzi. Even though he is now a Tory, he is not running so I expect this to go NDP.
    11 04 16 PSmith
    In the middle of the campaign driving along the north shore, though Terrace Bay Schreiber and Nipigon and what I can see is there are more Hyer signs than all the other ones put together. More even in towns like Terrace Bay where the Liberals used to be strong, and in Nipigon where the Conservative candidate is mayor. Whats more most of the Liberal signs are on public property but the NDP signs are at people's houses and businesses. Didn't see a single Green sign.
    A sign poll is not a very accurate measure of support of course but this overwhelming in the heartland of the Conservative and Liberal support bases has to be a clear indication of something. More accurate might be a poll published mid-campaign on TBNewswatch which also has Hyer ahead with Liberals and Conservatives fighting it out for second place. I'm keeping my prediction of Hyer being reelected.
    11 04 14 Steve M
    It's going to be close but I think the Liberals will pull it off. Yves' has been campaigning since December and he's been getting his name out there. People are upset with ‘Mr. Politics’ Bruce Hyer who worries more about cell phones in Toronto then the constituents. Liberals stayed home the last election and if they vote liberal again, this riding will turn red. Terrace Bay will be a strong one for the Liberals as Fricot was able to get the mill running, he should also do well in Longlac as he's Francophone. And Schreiber will be strong liberal.
    11 04 14 DrAwesomepants
    Yves Fricot is not a very popular candidate due to his business past. The Conservatives stand to pick up a lot of the support he will lose. Also, Prime Minister Harper will be in Thunder Bay next Monday to hold a rally. The Tories have made no bones about the fact that they want to get ahold of at least one of the Thunder Bay ridings, and Thunder Bay-Superior North is their best shot at it.
    11 04 08 Shuniah Gal
    Bruce Hyer has been very visible hosting town hall meetings and at events, with lots of money flowing into the riding under his watch. The only other candidate that has been as active is Conservative Richard Harvey who is mayor of the small town Nipigon, but Conservatives have little chance in this riding. The Conservative is a stronger candidate than in 2006 or 2008, but if anything a strong Conservative takes more votes away from the Liberals here than the NDP.
    The riding does have a strong Liberal tradition, and Liberal Fricot would have a shot if it wasn't for the fact that he's well known for shady business dealings on behalf of his employer. A lot of people have been burned with lost wages or worse. The way Fricot seized the party nomination in a coup within the electoral district association also means parts of the Liberal machine will be sitting this election out.
    Hyer will easily hold on to Thunder Bay Superior North.
    11 04 06 binriso
    The CPC could steal 2nd place here but would be hard pressed to pull out another 4000 votes. Interesting to note this riding was won by the NDP despite less total votes than 2008.
    11 04 06 NJam101
    This is not too close to call. Bruce Hyer will win again because his Liberal opponent is not a strong candidate. JB is correct about him not having a chance by supporting a lumber company that is in the bad books with many. The Conservative vote has never been higher than 30% here in the last 30 years. I can see some people in T-Bay voting Liberal more than elsewhere in the riding and the smaller lumber towns will vote big time for the NDP. The gun registry is an issue for only a small percentage of the people. The main issues will be the economy, help for towns ravished by the sawmill closures and infrastructure.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    Based on the past two elections this should probably stay NDP, although the Liberals could pull off an upset if they win back much of their lost support in Thunder Bay. The Tories have no chance at winning this but their opposition to the gun registry will likely help them in the rural portions of the riding so a lot depends on whom this comes from, thus making them play the role of kingmaker but not enough to take this.
    11 03 25 R.O.
    I disagree that the vote on long gun registry during which opposition mp's changed vote and saved it isn't going to be an issue here . voters do not forget those kinds of things and now know where the parties really stand on the issue. i do agree other issues are important to voters here and the northern economy is going to be a top priority for many but conservatives have an advanage on both those issues. there is also a signifcant split of the anti harper vote here and neither liberals or ndp appear willing to let other have the riding. so the conservatives still have a chance here even though there % support in riding has never been that high and with a tory mp in nearby Kenora voters know what positive things to expect if they elect a conservative. combine that with an enthusiastic candidate in Richard Harvey and we have an intersting 3 way race here.
    11 03 23 JB
    This will be a solid NDP hold.
    Liberal candidate Yves Fricot sealed his fate as the lawyer spokesperson for Buchanan Forest Products, a company who recently denied several hundreds of pensioners from receiving any severance pay when the local plant shut down. Currently, the people don't trust him, and the Liberal party in general.
    The Cons have no chance here.
    10 10 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The long gun registry will be ancient history by the time any election rolls around. Much in the same way SSM involved a lot of huffing and puffing with nothing coming of it, the gun registry will probably fall to the wayside when more important bread and butter issues come to the forefront. Those that really care THAT much about their guns being registered probably already vote Conservative. None the less the NDp incumbent voted against the registry and he can proudly exclaim that he votes in line with this constituent's wishes. That nullifies this issue. No, there will be other issues that will make this a possible three way race. As we see it; incumbent advantage with a similar score to previous elections of about 13- 14K. Liberals and CPC duking it out for second place each getting about 10K. Things can change though...
    10 09 21 Jamie
    In fall 2010, the long gun registry looms large. Once a solid Liberal riding, this is now a 3-way race. Iggy's whip has resulted in Liberal candidate Fricot going to ground, staying silent, and people started to notice. The Conservatives have been gaining in the riding each election, and in 2008 their vote was only 1% behind the Liberal vote. It's not a surprise Stephen Harper is targeting the area, sending support and hosting a Conservative fundraiser there personally.
    If the election is held by spring 2011, the new Conservative candidate, Nipigon mayor Richard Harvey, will be sure to make the registry an issue during the campaign. Its a vote-winner for him since more than three-quarters of the riding and all of his supporters will support scrapping the registry.
    Hammering on this will pull plenty of votes away from Liberal candidate Fricot, but not too many from incumbent NDP M.P. Bruce Hyer. Hyer has been solid on his position against the registry and voted to end it, resisting intense pressure from Jack Layton, unions, and the local Thunder Bay police chief who waged an all-out political media campaign on it. The question is, will Harvey be able to pull enough Liberal votes to overcome Hyer?
    Hyer may lose some of his pro-registry NDP support base to the Liberals, but he has also been strong on a number of other issues such as the HST, pensions, the environment, and small business. Harvey is unlikely to get enough traction to overcome Hyer in this traditionally Liberal-leaning riding unless he is successful in making the registry a really big election issue. Hyer will probably be one of the few Northern Ontario NDP MPs to hold on to his seat, with Conservatives coming in a close second and the Liberal vote dropping to third place.
    10 01 23 A.S.
    Strange: despite facing an open-seat situation that TBRR's John Rafferty didn't, Bruce Hyer only gained two percentage points over 2006, compared to Rafferty's seven-point gain--did the ‘Comuzzi Tory’ situation have anything to do with this? In this light, it's also worth noting that in another reversal from past patterns, the 2008 CPC share in TBSN was higher than in TBRR--farfetched to think of *this* as a Tory target, but one never knows--at the very least, second place is plausible, and you don't even need a Joe Comuzzi to ensure it. But we're jumping a gun there. If I remain iffy about predicting this as an NDP hold, it's only because I'm just as iffy about TBRR as an NDP hold.
    09 10 25 PSmith
    Despite rising national polls for the Harper, Conservatives have weakened their chances to take this riding significantly. First by selecting a completely unknown and new candidate in Mike Auld (a Buchanan Forest Products manager), instead of sticking with someone that had both name recognition and campaign experience like Bev Sarafin. Second, by mailing everyone in both Thunder Bay Superior-North and Thunder Bay - Rainy River riding a controversial taxpayer-funded mailout that told voters their MPs had ‘worked to support the [gun] registry and end the amnesty’ which everyone in the riding knows to be patently false. Both Bruce Hyer and John Rafferty have staked their reputations on ending the long gun registry, and have campaigned on this for multiple elections. Both are probably in a position to sue the Conservative Party for libel.
    That being said, the Liberals have chosen another unknown, Yves Fricot (Legal Counsel and VP of Buchanan Forest Products). The fact that Buchanan has a history of declaring bankruptcy when local back-wages or severance pay is owed, means the heavy local baggage from this company will weigh down on the Liberal candidate too. A protest by independent forestry contractors (200 small forestry businesses) for millions owed for product already delivered to Buchanan mills but unpaid got front-page newspaper and TV coverage.
    There is a lot of mixed local emotions about Buchanan which may be a factor in the 2010 race. Probably a hold for Hyer, who is seen as a hard-working MP even when he's battling cancer.
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    A riding in recent years that was affected by the controversy involving former Liberal MP Joe Comuzzi and his conflicting loyalties between the Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP ended up winning here. Perhaps the Liberals can now move beyond the Joe Comuzzi era, but unlike in Sudbury where the Liberals only lost by 5 points, here they lost by 9 points and this riding may lean NDP for awhile.
    09 09 03 JF Breton
    Le nord de l'Ontario est un monde en soi. Plusieurs commentateurs ont été surpris par l'ampleur des gains néo-démocrates dans la région, pas tant par les gains, mais par le nombre de circonscriptions remportées. Un phénomène collectif d'entraînement, couplé à une désaffection des électeurs libéraux demeurés chez eux, a favorisé ce mouvement. Est-ce que ça se reproduira cette fois-ci? Pas certain. Il m'apparaît trop tôt pour déclarer un vainqueur ici. TCTC
    09 09 02 Observer
    I predict a reasonable margin win for the NDP. Bruce Hyer is a visible MP in a NDP friendly riding.
    09 09 01 JJ
    The NDP will probably manage to hold on, but the Liberals have a strong presence here. To be safe, this should be in the TCTC column.

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