Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:05:00

Constituency Profile


Chesnik, Laura

Comartin, Joe

Ghanam, Denise

Kusmierczyk, Irek

Prestanski, Kyle

Joe Comartin

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • essex (15/220 Polls)
  • windsor-st-clair (206/206 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 gunther75
    Probably the safest NDP seat in these elections. Even without Jack Layton surge Comartin would be cruising to victory. Right demographics and a really hard-to-beat politician.
    11 04 16 The Jackal
    Joe Comartin is very safe here the only race will be for second place.
    11 04 11 Nick
    M. Lunn, while I don't at all disagree that Windsor will stay solidly NDP (in fact, I'd go so far as to say that if the NDP lost every single seat in Ontario, including Toronto-Danforth and Hamilton Centre, they would still win the two Windsor ridings) I do have to say you're assessment of Tory wins in auto manufacturing towns is a little off. Certainly Cambridge and St. Catharines aren't Toronto bedroom communities and yet have strong manufacturing bases and Tory MPs with the NDP being a non-issue. There's far more to it than simply saying that a Conservative win in an auto town is due to suburban influences. I'd say the NDP in Windsor has more to do with being in the right place at the right time and effectively hanging on to that edge through each successive election.
    11 04 11 Prof Ape without Dr Bear
    I'm back home in the Windsor area at the moment and have made an interesting observation. If lawn signs are any indication, both the Liberals and the Conservatives are far more organized and mobilized than last election. Though I still think Joe Comartin has it, it will be much closer than it has been over the last few elections.
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    The NDP could lose every other seat they have and still win this one, Comartin keeps this seat.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    While Tecumseh may be a three way race, Windsor is solidly NDP. It is true the Tories are able to win in many other auto manufacturing centres, but unlike Windsor, most are either smaller towns or in the case of Oakville and Oshawa contain many middle class suburban voters who commute to Toronto everyday. Windsor does not include those as the only large city within commuting distance is Detroit and since it is in foreign country I suspect few in Windsor commute there daily. Besides the NDP won this in 2000 when they were in single digits in Ontario.
    09 12 28 A.S.
    For the NDP, 2000's Joe Co surprise was a critical stepping-stone en route to Jack Layton's 2008-model kitchen-table populism (remember: this is Windsor-Tecumseh, not Trinity-Spadina). Inevitably (and all the more so given the industry/economy), Joe Co's electorally surfing these days. As for the EPP history re this seat--well, in 2008, CPC finally beat the Grits for second place.
    09 08 26 JF Breton
    Circonscription sûre pour le NPD. Lors de la dernière élection, certains doutait de la réélection de Comartin et il est allé chercher 10000 voix de majorité. La division du vote entre Conservateurs et Libéraux est un avantage indéniable. Victoire NPD.
    09 08 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    In many electionprediction-go-rounds we have got a lot of flack for our assertive belief that Joe Comartin would win this riding handily. There is no reason for us to change our belief. Windsor has been hit really hard with this recession and the union ties hold strong here. Joe will win easily once again.

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