Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-10-10 11:57:00

Constituency Profile


Breti, Jeff

Chatterson, Greg

Clipsham, Fred

Miller, Jackie

Scheer, Andrew

Andrew Scheer

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • regina-quappelle (159/159 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 11 MDF+
    Fred Clipsham is a much stronger candidate than Janice Bernier, but his City Council ward doesn't overlap with the constituency at all. As noted before, Scheer is the most effective constituency MP of the three Conservatives in Regina.
    A much closer race this time, but the Conservatives have the edge.
    11 04 03 Michael Fox
    While this used to be an NDP riding, it's been a Conservative landslide in recent elections. Polling has the Conseratives at 54% in the Prairies. I'm calling this a Conservative hold by a wide margin.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    This was close in 2000, 2004, and 2006, however I suspect part of this was due to Lorne Nystrom's personal popularity. Last election, the Tories won by 20% which is a pretty big gap to overcome. The city split pretty evenly last time around with the NDP taking the urban core polls and Tories the suburban ones. However, the Tories won by a 3:1 margin in the rural polls and with those type of margins it is pretty tough for the NDP to pull this off unless they can rack up similiar margins in the city. Never mind the Dippers in Saskatchewan are more your traditional CCF populist types, not your downtown Toronto latte sipping bicycle riding, granola eating socialists, thus the NDP doesn't really connect with Saskatchewan voters as much anymore. Not that this has hurt the NDP nationally as it has helped them in BC and Ontario which have more seats.
    11 03 24 RJM
    Fred Clipsham, a Regina city councillor, was nominated by the NDP on March 9th. This seat is still a hold for Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives.
    09 09 17 MDF+
    The fact that the federal NDP will no longer have to deal with the baggage of a tired provincial government will help the party in this constituency. However, Andrew Scheer has established himself and, despite some early discomfort, has become an effective politician. He is the strongest constituency MP of the three Regina Tories.
    There is a strong NDP candidate waiting in the wings, but probably would not be prepared to run in a fall election for professional reasons. The NDP focus in Regina - Qu'Appelle this time is likely to be party building and setting the stage for the next go round.
    Presuming that the next redistribution intends to follow the lead of the previous boundaries commission and move to having three all urban seats in each of Regina and Saskatoon, Andrew would then face a much tougher challenge.
    09 09 10 DMD
    I don't understand why this is still called ?too close?. It's not been close in the last two elections. The margins are healthy, and even last time, with a solid organization, a name candidate with lots of backing, this was a solid CPC win. And talk of NDP strongholds out here is frankly bizarre at this point what is it, 3 elections since the NDP elected a single member in SK? They certainly seem, provincially as well, in abeyance for now. If they have a hope this time out, it will be in Rosetown-Biggar, a riding that really has been very close. This is a sure Tory hold.
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    IMHO, this riding has no business being a too-close-too-call riding. The Tories had a very strong win here last time, and until the Liberals and NDP stop splitting the urban vote, they should continue to do so. Remember, they knocked off longtime NDP MP Lorne Nystrom to take this riding in the first place, then beat him into the ground when he tried to re-take it.
    09 09 02 Tim
    Facts: Scheer's vote total has been steadily going up since 04. He won with a 20% margin last time, and garnered %52 of the vote. Scheer has been a visable, vocal MP over the past few years, and was selected to be Deputy Speaker. Clearly, he is well thought of in Parliament and in his own caucus. He is on TV and in the Leader-Post more than any other MP in the area. He passed a private member's bill on car theft, helped bring in major infrastructure projects like the transportation hub. He is well liked.
    Elections Canada filings show that the NDP is broke in this riding. I'm not sure who their candidate will be, but unless it's a major star, they won't have much of a ground game here. The NDP have got %32 of the vote the last 3 elections. Their support is stagnant. To think that Scheer would drop 20 points is not reasonable. Look for the Libs to climb up from 10% to around 17% and Scheer to drop maybe to around 44-47%, simply based on the fact that Dion is not Leader this time. The Lib support is bound to float up a bit because of that, but nowhere near enough to put them in contention.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Scheer has gained votes in each election since '04. Despite a drop in turnout last year, he finished more than 5,300 votes ahead, to where he took more than 51% of the vote. He'll hold here without much trouble.
    09 08 26 Observer
    It is too soon to say the Conservatives will have the edge next election. Conservative saturation can lead to a NDP surprise. This is the province here the NDP was born and Tommy Douglas was Premier.

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